Quebec reins in Liberals, and the PQ

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(DALE CUMMINGS)

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Quebecers have installed -- barely -- a separatist government for the first time in almost a decade. But they did not vote for sovereignty. Pauline Marois became the first female premier of Quebec on Tuesday not because the electorate was anxious for a referendum, but because enough of it was fed up with the three-term Liberal government of Jean Charest. There may be some joyful separatists in Quebec today, but they, like the Marois government, are in a distinct minority.

The Charest Liberals actually showed well against the predictions of polls and prognosticators who saw the federalists falling to third-party status. Mr. Charest lost his own seat and has resigned as leader. But his party holds official Opposition status with 50 of 125 seats, not far behind the new government's 54 seats. That is a silver lining for the Liberals, as the full force of the youth protest vote -- which contributed heavily to the remarkable 75 per cent turnout in an era of falling voter participation countrywide -- was expected to fall heavily against the Liberals.

The election was very evidently not an endorsement of the Parti Québécois. Quebecers had much to protest, and inevitably the protest vote favours those not in power. With the rise of the Coalition Avenir Québec, voters had real choice. That forced the PQ to adjust, most notably mid-campaign when Ms. Marois tempered her pursuit of a referendum, ultimately pledging to leave it to a National Assembly vote, which her minority cannot win.

Disenchanted Liberals and federalists who otherwise might have stayed home seem to have decided to turn out to save the party from a rout or to stop the PQ. Ultimately, the popular vote split within a few percentage points for all three parties.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper reflected on the results in his congratulatory message to the PQ. Mr. Harper said he'll be glad to work with the new government on its economic issues, a discussion predicated on respect for the constitutional authority of each jurisdiction. The point was clear: Ms. Marois' plan to press for greater constitutional power in areas including immigration, foreign policy and employment insurance will gain little traction in Ottawa.

In effect, the PQ has limited power, its mandate all but gutted. Its hopes to stoke sovereigntist zeal, to prepare the ground for a referendum have been dashed. It may scrap the Charest government's plan to hike post-secondary tuitions, but is unlikely to fulfil its agenda to raise taxes on the rich and to introduce disturbing nationalistic rules that would further limit English-language rights, define Quebec "citizenship" and ban the wearing of religious garb by civil servants.

Ms. Marois may have more luck with the opposition on her pledge to get control of provincial finances. That, however, would run afoul of other promises that would cost the treasury dearly. The protesters that rebelled against Mr. Charest's restraint measures are Ms. Marois' problem, now.

Quebecers, fed up as they were with a government that had grown too comfortable in power, also voted to reject extremism. Quebecers have strong cultural identity, but talk of separation today is an irritating distraction for most. Moreover, Canadians can be glad in this election that voters in the province also nipped in the bud an increasingly odious anti-immigrant sentiment, chastening the PQ.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition September 6, 2012 A10