The NDP road show matters

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The federal New Democratic Party's travelling road show rolls into Winnipeg on Sunday, when the seven leadership candidates are to square off in the latest in a series of uninspiring debates that have largely failed to generate a conversation among Canadians about the future of the country.

The contest has not generated the kind of lift in national interest the party wanted following the sudden death last August of Jack Layton, who was credited with achieving the remarkable NDP breakthrough in Quebec in the federal election.

The party has dramatically increased its membership to more than 128,000 today from about 83,000 last October, but the numbers are a reflection of aggressive membership drives by candidates, rather than a rise in popular support by Canadians as a whole.

Opinion polls have shown the party's support has declined since last spring's election, when Canadians elected 101 NDP MPs, including 57 in Quebec, with 31 per cent of the popular vote.

According to a Nik Nanos poll in January, 25 per cent of Canadians supported the party, a four-point decline from December, but the loyalty of Quebec voters had slipped to 29 per cent from a high of 50 per cent prior to Mr. Layton's death.

The absence of a full-time leader (and the tepid performance of interim leader Nycole Turmel) are undoubtedly factors in the NDP's relative decline, but it's far from clear the party's fortunes could rebound following the March leadership convention in Toronto.

Among other things, Canadian views on the relative importance of key issues have changed.

According to Nanos, health care -- the NDP's traditional strong suit -- is the most important national issue for just 20 per cent of Canadians, a three-point decline since December. Jobs and the economy -- the Conservatives' strength -- have risen to 28 per cent, the single most important issue of national concern.

The party also can't be satisfied with the number of members signed up in Quebec since last fall. With 12,266 members, only Ontario and British Columbia have more, but the numbers are not strong for a province that single-handedly propelled the NDP into the role of official Opposition.

It's true there is no provincial party in Quebec to support membership drives, but the final numbers show the province has less than 10 per cent of the eligible voters who will select the next leader, even though it has 25 per cent of the population.

Previous NDP leadership contests have been interesting, but lacking in great importance, since even the best leader was unlikely to alter the historic pattern of Canadian politics.

This campaign, however, should matter to Canadians, since it will set the tone and tenor for national politics over the next three years.

Strong leadership could rejuvenate the party, while an ineffective leader could open the door for the return of the Liberal party, which has seemed stronger under interim boss Bob Rae.

Mr. Layton gave New Democrats the best chance the party has ever had at forming a government, but it could all be lost easily if the next leader is unable to chart a course that reflects the priorities and concerns of all Canadians.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition February 23, 2012 A10