Editorials

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Weather you can't count on

By: Editorial

Posted: 08/16/2010 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies)

Some Manitoba farmers have had a disastrous year because of the weather. Too much rain has ruined their crops. Some of them may blame their misfortune on climate change; others may recall the elements play havoc with food production on a regular basis, although it's unlikely they remember the dust bowl of the 1930s, when it rarely rained for nearly a decade.

The point is you can see as much or as little as you want in this year's dramatic weather events. For some observers, the deadly floods in Pakistan and China, hundreds of forest fires in Russia, earthquakes, melting glaciers and soaring Prairie temperatures are conclusive proof of irrevocable, relentless global warming. Others think it's just the weather.

Critics of climate-change orthodoxy say the weather has always had periods of unpredictability and eras of warming and cooling. Greenland, for example, was settled about 1,000 years ago during a period of global warming. Unseasonably hot weather is believed to have helped Ferdinand Magellan circumnavigate the globe in the early 16th century. A so-called Little Ice Age caused havoc in Europe in the 14th century.

Conventional scientific wisdom today acknowledges the anomalies and short-term trends of the past, but insists the planet has entered a period of irreversible warming caused by carbon emissions and other man-made toxins.

The experts say we need better tools to forecast the weather so we can prepare for disasters, but accurate, long-term predictions still seem as elusive as ever, and no more or less reliable than the astrological analysis conducted by the Babylonians 2,500 years ago.

The heavy precipitation that ruined so many crops in Manitoba this year caught everyone by surprise, as did the extreme events and disasters that have afflicted most regions of the globe. For now, as always, we are at the mercy of the weather, but that doesn't mean we should sit around and let it happen.

There are two courses of action: First, we need to prepare for the worst. Cities, provinces, countries and world organizations need a long-term plan for what they will or can do if, or when, ocean levels rise, temperatures soar and rivers run dry. The worst-case scenario will devastate our planet and ways of life. Cities could be wiped out and hundreds of millions of people left homeless. Extreme heat will force a population shift inland and to the north. Water and food supplies will be threatened, and so on, according to the uncomfortable truths of most weather scientists.

Second, we should clean up our act. It doesn't matter anymore which climate theory is correct. We need to recycle more, generate less garbage and become more energy efficient, and all the other things associated with sound living. Not just because improving our habits will address global warming concerns, but because it is good for our water and our air, for our economy and our health.

You don't have to believe global warming is caused by people to support a healthier lifestyle for all. And even those who think the theory of global warming is bunk must still know pollution is caused by man and the planet can only handle so much dirt and contamination.

One other thing is certain: There's always a 100 per cent chance of weather at the moment.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition August 16, 2010 A10

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