Could this be the Year of Palestine?

TEL AVIV — It could be said "The Year of Palestine" was launched in New York with the opening of the 66th UN General Assembly Monday.

 Not only are the rotating presidents of the General Assembly and the Security Council Arabs, but the agenda is full of Arab topics.

 Private meetings between the various heads of states also will be dominated by Arab issues — Palestinian statehood, the unfinished business in Libya, the continued struggle for democracy in Syria and Yemen and, of course, the Palestinian application to become the 194th member-state of the UN.

 The application for full UN membership will be submitted Friday by the chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas. He will be accompanied by a mother of five Palestinian terrorists, who were either suicide bombers or were killed in clashes with Israel, including the notorious terrorist Nasser Abu Hmeid, responsible for the assassination of many Israelis.

 This is a cheap imitation of Yasser Arafat’s bit of theatre in September 1974 when he entered the General Assembly carrying an olive leaf in one hand and — despite protests — an unloaded revolver on his left leg.

 Abbas’s address on Friday will be followed by an address by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

 U.S. President Barack Obama meets today with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the Turkish-Israeli conflict and the situation in Syria, the same subjects to be discussed with Netanyahu.

The U.S. is very disturbed by the tension between its two most important Middle East allies. Obama is reported to believe Israeli-Turkish relations are so important that Netanyahu "should eat a little crow" and apologize to Erdogan for the loss of lives when Israel intercepted the Mavi Marmara.

 According to Israeli sources, Netanyahu will try to convince Obama that the deterioration in the Israeli-Turkish relations is not the result of Israel’s refusal to apologize, but rather is part of a calculated strategy to take advantage of the weakness of various Arab regimes — especially Egypt and Jordan — in order to become the leading regional power in the Middle East.

 According to some intelligence reports, both Saudi Arabia and Egypt are opposed to the idea that a non-Arab Muslim country lead the region, as it did under the Ottoman Empire.

 During his recent visit to Cairo, Erdogan was treated nicely by Egyptian military rulers but they were very reserved about the role Turkey wants to assume in the region, in particular Erdogan’s assistance to Hamas.

 The application for Palestinian membership in the UN will certainly fail and not only because of the American veto in the Security Council. It will fail because the Palestinian Authority does not have yet the attributes of an independent state. According to the 1933 Montevideo Convention, a state must meet four requirements: clearly defined borders; effective government control of its territory; permanent control of its population and of its military machinery; and, a capacity to enter into relations with sovereign countries.

 Abbas cannot meet these requirements. The West Bank and the Gaza Strip are run as separate entities; Abbas does not control Hamas and its armed militia; the future Palestinian entity lacks clearly defined borders; and as long as Israel controls the Jordan Valley and the West Bank’s air space, Abbas has no power to enter into relations with any other entity.

 Israeli strategists believe the main reason for applying for full UN membership is a desire to bring back the UN as the main peacemaker, instead of the U.S.

 Indeed, until the 1973 Yom Kippur war, the UN was the main peacemaker in the region. After that war, the Nixon’s administration took charge of the Arab-Israeli file and peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, the Madrid Peace conference, the Oslo Accords and peace envoys were all American.

 Even in 2002, when U.S. President George W. Bush approved the Roadmap for Peace in co-operation with Russia and the European Union, the UN joined the Quartet in failed efforts to implement the Roadmap.

 Abbas now wants the UN to retake charge of the peace process. He believes the U.S. has been traditionally pro-Israeli, while the majority of UN members is not. Thus, the appeal for UN membership is a strategic move, and Abbas knows quite well his initiative will fail, either because the U.S. will recruit nine votes in the Security Council to defeat the Palestinian initiative or use its veto.

 While the unilateral Palestinian initiative is supported by all Arab countries, it contravenes most international agreements — the 1993 Oslo Accords, the 2002 Roadmap and security council resolutions 242 and 338. As a result, the Palestinian move could deprive Abbas of Israel’s co-operation in at least 40 spheres, including security.

 The U.S. Congress had also hinted the U.S. could deprive the Palestinian Authority of annual subsidies totalling $470 million.

 Realizing the danger of such a development, the Europeans — with a tacit approval of the U.S. (and possibly Israel) — are trying to find a last-minute compromise. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is reported to be carrying such a compromise to New York.

 Sarkozy is suggesting Abbas not apply Friday to the Security Council for full UN membership, but instead apply to the General Assembly for non-member status, with European and American guarantees that once the negotiations with Israel are resumed, a time limit of six months be fixed for concluding a final agreement.

 Abbas is reported to want a three-month time limit, while, unofficially, Israel is ready to accept on condition that the time limit be 12 months.

 There is, however, a sticking point: Abbas insists any proposal be accompanied by a clear Israeli undertaking to stop all settlement activity in the West Bank.

 If Abbas accepts the French proposal, the PA will be allowed to join the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and UNESCO, but will not be allowed to appeal to the International Court of Justice against Israel so long as negotiations are in progress. These are unofficial, unconfirmed reports.

 One thing, however, is certain — until Abbas goes to the UN podium on Friday, other ideas could be advanced and be accepted or rejected.

 Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free Press Middle East correspondent.