Israel is redrawing its map

TEL AVIV — The month-old middle class "Tent Revolution" in Israel, has definitely shaken the foundations of the rightwing Likud-led government. At the same time, this protest movement has proven that it still lacks the power to bring about its downfall.

Like any other protest movement, the ultimate success of the Israeli movement depends on the quality of its leadership and realistic goals. After last Saturday’s limited participation in the country-wide demonstrations, the ad hoc leaders of the movement reached the zenith of their success. On the one hand, they are proud of their ability to assemble the crowds. At the same time, they recognize the need to draft a practical ideology based on realistic goals.

When Daphne Liff, a 26-year-old TV producer, initiated the Tent Revolution, she limited her protest to one goal: affordable housing and logical rents. Since then, however, the movement has adopted additional goals — an end to the control of the national economy by 10 families; narrowing the huge salary gaps between senior executives and their employees; ending the scandalous bank commissions and, in general, narrowing the social and economic gap between Tel Aviv and the rest of the country.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recognized at an early stage the existence of these social problems. He practically hijacked this agenda from the demonstrators. In a quick move, he appointed two committees to offer solutions. First, he appointed a government committee to offer solutions to the housing problem.

The second committee is far more ambitious.

Its mandate is to offer options for socio-economic change. Netanyahu appointed Professor Manuel Trajtenberg, a respected professor of economy at Tel Aviv University, to chair this committee.

Trajtenberg is a socialist in his political and economic approach. His philosophy totally differs from that of Netanyahu’s, which is based on a free market economy. In a press conference earlier this week, Trajtenberg said he accepted the nomination after four hours’ discussion with the prime minister during which Netanyahu promised to accept most, if not all, of his recommendations. "Netanyahu has definitely changed his economic orientation," Trajtenberg said. He said he hopes to submit his recommendations to Netanyahu by the end of September.

It appears that Netanyahu, Trajtenberg and Stanley Fischer, the respected president of the Bank of Israel, are in agreement on one important point: Due to the world economic crisis, Israeli solutions should be economically sound. The global economic crisis precludes any quick solutions. An economic collapse because of excessive social demands would not solve Israeli economic problems nor would it close the social gaps.

In a meeting at the "Tents Boulevard" — as the Rothshild Boulevard is now popularly called — Trajtenberg conveyed this message to the protesters’ unofficial leadership. It was coldly received. The protesters assembled their own group of academic experts to formulate their own demands.

Pending the submission of the Trajtenberg recommendations, Netanyahu hopes that most of the protesters will soon go to work and the students will return to their university classes, leaving the real political test to the future parliamentary elections that are scheduled for 2013.

Already, however, several polls indicate one political result: a weakening of the main opposition party Kadima and the reinvigorating of the Labour party. This needs an explanation.

When the now-paralyzed Ariel Sharon realized he wouldn’t be able to withdraw unilaterally from the Gaza Strip, he quit the Likud party and formed Kadima. The new party was to become a centrist party formed by Likud and Labour.

Being defeated as chairman of the Labour party by Amir Peretz, then the secretary general of the Histadrut trade union, Shimon Peres and many of his followers quit Labour and joined Sharon in Kadima. Thus Kadima is composed of defectors from both Likud and Labour. Shimon Peres became president on the Kadima ticket, not Labour’s.

Now, however, it appears that many of Labour’s defectors are disappointed by the leadership of Sharon’s heirs — first Ehud Olmert and now Tzipi Livni. They want to "return home" to Labour.

Next month, elections to the Labour party leadership will give us a clear indication whether the political change in Israel’s political landscape is real or imaginary.

What is interesting in this potential change in Israel’s political map is that all polls indicate that Likud — under Benjamin Netanyahu — will still remain the leading political force in Israel. This could explain the relatively moderate approach of the "Tents Boulevard" protesters. They don’t call publicly for Netanyahu’s downfall. They understand that it is only with him that they can solve their real social problems.

 Samuel Segev is the Free Press Middle East correspondent.