Abbas gives Palestinians the edge

TEL AVIV -- The Palestinian Authority has gained a slight edge over Israel as they enter the next stage of their diplomatic confrontation.

After Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas ended his speech to the United Nations General Assembly Friday, it became clear the Arab Spring has transformed the Palestinians into a dynamic political factor.

This was demonstrated by the conduct of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was first to rush to congratulate Abbas and promise any diplomatic assistance he might need.

Turkey, aspiring to be a regional leader, signalled that in the new situation in the Middle East, its relations with the Palestinians are more important than relations with Israel.

Indeed, in a rapidly changing Middle East, Israel is finding itself in an increasingly difficult situation.

Upon his return to Ramallah on Sunday, where he was received as a national hero, Abbas told aides he now intends to press Israel through all UN agencies and by encouraging "civil resistance," such as the weekly demonstrations by Palestinian and Israeli "peace activists" along the security fence that separates Israel from parts of the West Bank.

Abbas also said he wants to force the U.S. to use its veto in the Security Council, a move that would hurt U.S. President Barack Obama's standing in the Arab world. Abbas realizes his defiance of Obama earned him a lot of kudos in the West Bank.

Until now, Abbas has had few achievements and many setbacks. His defiance of Obama has erased all that.

At the same time, Abbas asked aides to quietly prepare the ground for eventually asking the UN General Assembly to admit Palestine as a non-member-state observer, with the implied recognition of the pre-1967 borders.

This is a far-reaching change in the Palestinian position. Until now and in all previous negotiations with the Quartet (U.S., Russia, Europe and the UN), Abbas agreed to the annexation of three Israeli settlement blocs in the West Bank in return for equal Israeli land.

In an interview with the Saudi-owned, London-based Arabic daily Al-Hayat, Abbas hinted that in future negotiations with Israel, the size of these three settlement blocs will be much reduced. In practical terms, it means Abbas now rejects former U.S. president George W. Bush's 2004 letter to former prime minister Ariel Sharon that stated in a final agreement, these three settlement blocs will be annexed to Israel.

According to the new Abbas position, some of these settlements will be dismantled and their settlers will be forced to move to Israel.

This explains why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in his UN speech Friday that the Palestinian aim is to make the West Bank judenrein -- free of Jews. It's doubtful Israel would agree to this position.

It is against this complexity that we have to examine the Quartet's position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Since last September, the Quartet has twice failed twice to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. On the eve of Abbas's speech, Quartet envoy Tony Blair suggested negotiations could be revived on the basis of Israel annexing the three blocs and retaining security authority in the West Bank.

This was rejected. "Blair acted as an Israeli emissary and not as a UN envoy," Abbas told his aides.

The Quartet urged Israel and the Palestinians to resume their direct negotiations "within a month." It did not propose any "bridging positions" but said the aim is to reach an Israeli-Palestinian agreement by the end of 2012. If the effort progresses, the Quartet suggested an international peace conference could be held in Moscow in late spring.

This is a clear American concession and a Russian victory. Russia has offered several times to hold such a conference, but both presidents Bush and Obama preferred American exclusivity.

This new situation will be discussed after Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, by the inner diplomatic and security members of the Israeli cabinet.

On the one hand, Israel is pleased with the Quartet's statement that peace can be achieved only through direct negotiations between the parties. At the same time, however, Israel cannot ignore the fact that its strategic situation has changed as a result of the Arab Spring.

Israel's bargaining position has also weakened, which is the reason Netanyahu already has hinted he might support the Quartet's proposal.

In contrast, Abbas said he will not resume negotiations until Netanyahu commits publicly to freezing all settlement activities in the West Bank and agrees negotiations will be based on the 1967 ceasefire lines. Abbas did not mention the territorial swaps that were endorsed by the Quartet.

Standing up to these preconditions is probably the toughest challenge Netanyahu has faced in his 30-month premiership.

Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free

Press Middle East correspondent.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition September 27, 2011 A14