Air going out of war in Afghanistan

KABUL, Afghanistan -- Like a balloon with a slow leak, the U.S.-led war against the Taliban is gradually running out of air.

The Obama administration's somewhat mixed message about accelerating the drawdown of U.S. combat forces in Afghanistan while keeping Special Forces here has had an effect on some of the American troops who, from my talks with them, have figuratively packed their bags and in their minds are already halfway home.

As a fearless Canadian woman who has worked closely with Afghans for many years grimly put it to me during a chance meeting near the Canadian Embassy: "It's over, isn't it?"

That's certainly the way many of my friends in Kabul feel about the war. The first and only question these average Joes were asking was: "Is Obama really serious about ending combat operations next year?"

When I, in turn, asked them what would happen if this were to happen, the universal answer was: "We're doomed."

Maj.-Gen. Mike Day, the charismatic head of Canada's training contingent and the NATO officer responsible for building up Afghan security forces, said there is no chance the alliance will leave Afghanistan any time soon.

"We are going to continue post-2014, there are no ifs, ands, ors or buts about that," Day said. 'I read in the press, and it's frustrating, idiotic really, to say we are out of here by the end of 2014. That has never been the case and never will be the case. We will continue. What is true is that the mission will change and we have to prepare for that."

Support for NATO forces remaining here is high among Afghans. This is fed to a large degree by a morbid consensus that the Karzai government isn't capable of much and that the country will fracture into civil war that would pit Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks and liberal Pashtuns against deeply conservative pro-Taliban Pashtuns.

An Afghan army colonel I met earlier this week at a training base on Kabul's eastern outskirts expressed strong doubts that Afghan security forces will be ready to defend their country if NATO further accelerates its drawdown of combat forces or if other countries join France in speeding up the withdrawal of trainers and advisers.

My first hint of what has informed this relatively new mindset came during a brief visit to Kandahar last November. A few soldiers there told me the operational tempo was slowing. Poorly paid and overworked men and women from Kosovo, India, Nepal and the Philippines who have kept the Kandahar Airfield running for NATO said they had been warned that many of their jobs will end during the next year or so.

Having read all this, you might conclude that Canada's military training mission here is running out of air, too.

Curiously, and against my own expectations, morale remains high among the slightly more than 900 Canadian soldiers slated to advise Afghan security forces through to the spring of 2014, as it does among diplomats charged with overseeing more than $100 million a year of Canadian International Development Agency and Foreign Affairs programs to, among other things, improve the rule of law, protect and encourage women and improve schooling and health care.

The enthusiasm and focus of the soldiers and diplomats with whom I spoke was palpable. They believe Canada continues to make a significant contribution to Afghanistan's future well-being and that progress, although often slow, continues to be made.

However, particularly among the troops, there was some wistful anxiety over whether there's enough time left to get done what needs to be done to prepare the Afghans to take over their own security in 2014.

"I would be tremendously disappointed if you did not get that exact response," was Day's take on what his soldiers had told me. "What I think you are seeing is a bunch of guys who are tremendously emotionally vested in their jobs. What they don't want to see is the jobs they've done and the Afghans they have bonded with fail down the road."

However, it is an open question whether the quiet confidence that the Canadians here continue to have about their training and diplomatic missions will survive a crucial NATO summit to be held in Chicago in late May that is expected to be dominated by budgetary restraints and troop drawdown scenarios.

The shorter the alliance's Afghan timeline gets, the harder it will be to prepare Afghan forces to defend their country.

Matthew Fisher is a columnist with Postmedia News.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition February 18, 2012 A16