Conservative 'coalition' headed for a fall?

Political paradigm shifts begin with triumphalism and end in reversal of fortune.

When the Soviet Union crumbled in the 1990s, one U.S. historian declared the "end of history." His conceit was followed by al-Qaida, 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq and trillion-dollar deficits.

The same phenomenon could dog the Harper Conservatives' May 2 majority victory. The media are peppered with celebratory articles heralding the shift of political power to the West and the dawn of Conservative hegemony.

"Whether it's Quebec separatism, equalization, employment insurance reform or any other potential flashpoint, the political clout of the east-of-Ottawa part of Canada is shrinking, along with its ability to confront Ottawa and the rest of the country with a position of strength," John Ibbitson, Ottawa bureau chief for the Globe and Mail, wrote Monday.

Today the West is not only "in," it's running the show.

Ibbitson quotes Reform party founder and leader Preston Manning, author of the slogan "The West Wants In," saying Canada has grown up.

"Adolescents do ask: 'Who am I? Where am I going?' " Manning says. "But we may be past that."

Perhaps not much past, particularly if boasting about their success leads the Conservatives to marginalize, if not drive out, "the east-of-Ottawa part of Canada."

To date, the Conservatives have refused to guarantee Quebec's traditional right to 25 per cent of House of Commons seats as part of a new redistribution giving Ontario, Alberta and B.C. 30 new ridings.

Last week, Harper chose Angelo Persichilli, a prominent Italian Canadian journalist and powerhouse within Toronto's big ethnic press, to be his new director of communications. Persichilli does not speak French and once expressed outright hostility toward Quebec: "Many are tired of the annoying lament from a province that keeps yelling at those who pay part of its bills and are concerned by the overrepresentation of francophones in our bureaucracy, our Parliament and our institutions," he wrote in an April 2010 Toronto Star column.

And once again, as he has done repeatedly since 2006, University of Calgary political scientist and former senior Harper strategist Tom Flanagan tipped the country off about the latest Conservative political game afoot.

In the June-July issue of the Institute of Public Policy's magazine, Policy Options, Flanagan writes that the May 2 election "saw the emergence of a majority Conservative electoral coalition" that may "dominate Canadian politics for years to come."

This new coalition, Flanagan notes, specifically excludes Quebec and francophones, replacing them with the large pool of ethnic voters who live in Canada's big cities, particularly Toronto and Vancouver. "Many new Canadians are socially conservative, believing in stable traditional families rather than the lifestyle obsessions of Liberal elites. Most are religious, a surprising number... are Christian. Many are economically conservative and entrepreneurial... concerned about the tax burden. In other words, many immigrants look like Conservative core voters."

Flanagan insists Harper didn't abandon Quebec voters; they abandoned him in 2008 over "culture cuts" they considered "an insult to Quebec and a threat to the French language."

Flanagan sees the new West-Ontario paradigm as inherently stable, forging a lasting coalition of social and fiscal conservatives, Western Reformers and Ontario Progressive Conservatives, anglophones and allophones, rural and urban.

University of Ottawa political scientist Claude Denis finds a hidden subtext in Flanagan's article. "The main claim of the piece... is that the Conservatives can win a majority without Quebec... At this point, this is obviously true. Another important Flanagan claim is that the new coalition is more stable than one in which francophone Quebecers are a third pillar. This could also be true, but remains to be seen. Among ex-PCs and 'ethnics,' not to mention swing voters, the degree to which Harper aims to transform Canada into a conservative nation may quickly become a problem for the Conservatives. If Harper overreaches, he could play a steep price."

What Flanagan doesn't say, Denis continues, is that the new coalition would be much more robust if Quebec were not in the picture at all. But Harper has to avoid any perception that he wants to push Quebec out of Canada. "There's a good number of voters outside Quebec who would forsake the Conservatives forever if Harper & Co. were seen to play that game."

Harper is playing with fire, Denis warns. "It may be the case (the Conservatives) will push Quebec out unwittingly, as a result of existing dynamics they are feeding 'naturally... ' And because of their new coalition, (the Conservatives) may be willing to entertain that possibility with more equanimity."

This scenario doesn't amount to a plan, Denis continues. "But it may in the end be more consequential for the future of the country."

Frances Russell is a Winnipeg

author and political commentator.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition September 7, 2011 A12