Democracy phase one in Egypt

TEL AVIV -- Israel is following with great interest, but also with some concern, the first phase of the parliamentary elections in Egypt, the first since the ousting of Hosni Mubarak in February.

The concern was underlined Sunday when the gas pipeline from Egypt through Sinai to Israel was sabotaged for the second time in three days and the ninth time since the beginning of the Arab Spring. The frequent disruption of the Egyptian gas to Israel is forcing the Netanyahu government to look for other gas sources to assure an uninterrupted supply to its expanding electrical industry.

The elections for the 498 seats in the Egyptian Peoples Assembly (parliament) are being held in three stages, ending in January. Voting will then begin -- also in three stages -- for the 398 seats of the upper house, ending in March 2012.

By then, the committee entrusted with the drafting of the new constitution will be completed and a president will be elected by the end of June.

Today's elections are taking place in nine provinces, including Cairo and Alexandria. The vote is compulsory and voters were warned by the military command that abstention would cost the individual 500 Egyptian pounds.

The interest that the Egyptian elections are rousing is due mainly to the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood -- under its new political name, the Freedom and Justice party -- is participating legally for the first time since it was outlawed by former president Gamal Abdul Nasser in 1954. Members of the banned party participated in past elections as "independents."

Because they are more experienced and better organized, the members of the Freedom and Justice party are expected to become the real winners of the current elections. As a result, they are also expected to form the new government and influence the election of the president.

There are two other religious parties participating in the elections -- the extremist Salafist party opposed to a secular state and calling for the imposition of Sharia religious law as the law of the land, and the Al-Wasat party that split from the Muslim Brotherhood in the early 1990s and is now trying -- with no real success -- to diminish the power of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian voters went to the polls Monday largely unsatisfied that their revolution has not yielded tangible results.

It's true the revolution ousted Hosni Mubarak and brought him to justice, but the military still runs the country.

The elections follow nine days of protests in Tahrir Square that left 42 people dead and many others wounded. The protesters called for the ouster of the military and an end to human rights abuses.

The army, however, is unwilling to cede power. It has its own economic interests to protect and fears chaos in the country.

As a result, Egypt is now polarized.

Since the ouster of Mubarak, the Egyptian economy is in deep crisis. Tourism has practically ended and other sectors have deteriorated. Unemployment is rampant. The growing power of the Islamists has increased the tension between the Christian Copts and the various Islamic groups.

Coptic places of worship have been ransacked and individual Copts have been molested. Following urgent intervention by Western embassies, order has been restored.

All this has hardened the position of the military, although it still insists that its goal is to promulgate a constitution and hand over the government to civilians, "whoever is elected to lead."

The likely victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and the growing tendency towards Islamization in the Arab world, has impacted the entire region and is forcing pro-Western countries to re-assess their foreign policy options.

Addressing the Israeli Knesset's foreign policy and security committee, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the issue briefly. He said that Israel has to increase its vigilance and reassess its policies.

Within a very short period, the regimes of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and now Egypt, are becoming more Muslim-oriented.

Netanyahu did not offer any policy changes but he implied that the new situation necessitates "more vigilance."

Already it is known that the Israeli army has become more vigilant in the regions close to the Egyptian Sinai.

Netanyahu also hinted that he is likely to unfreeze taxation revenue that Israel is collecting on behalf of the Palestinians.

A plan to build a new bridge, leading from the Western Wall to Temple Mount, has been shelved as a result of Jordanian and Egyptian protests.

As one prominent Israeli politician put it: "At this time, it's not enough to be right. It's more important to use your brain."

Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free Press Middle East correspondent.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition November 29, 2011 A11