Israel appraises its options

TEL AVIV -- The American military withdrawal from Iraq, and the perceived weakening of the American influence in the region, has forced the Israeli government to update its strategic estimate for the year 2012.

Israel estimates that the current unrest in the Arab world will continue through 2012 -- with a special focus on Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Jordan.

The fall of Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak and the dangers of political Islam have led to the worsening of Israel's strategic situation.

Mubarak's removal has led to the deterioration of the security situation in Sinai. An Islamic Egypt -- even if it does not engage in renewed war with Israel -- is an irreplaceable loss for Israel.

Israel's alliance with Turkey is suspended and despite numerous efforts -- by the U.S. and others -- reconciliation is not in sight. Jordan's domestic situation is shaky. Greece, which was to become Israel's strategic alternative to Turkey, is unlikely to engage in new foreign and security initiatives, in the near future.

Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf principalities are afraid of Iran and are readier than in the past to co-operate quietly with Israel.

The monarchies of Morocco and Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf principalities appear to be stable for now and are determined to fight Iranian subversion. The Persian Gulf Co-operation Council, is now considering adding both Jordan and Morocco to its ranks.

The American withdrawal from Iraq has increased the Israeli concern about Jordan. The monarchy is going through deep unrest, even among the southern Bedouin tribes, who are traditionally considered loyal to King Abdullah.

The tribes oppose the king's subtle efforts to mend fences with the Palestinians, who, together with the Palestinian refugees, constitute a majority in the kingdom.

To this should be added the difficult economic situation, with high unemployment, low incomes, a water crisis and the slow pace of political reforms. The American withdrawal from Iraq, is likely to increase the economic hardships in the country. Many of the American contracts will now end and, in case of renewed communal tensions in Iraq, there is a growing fear that many more Iraqis will seek refuge in Jordan.

Israel is aware of Jordan's difficulties and is not interested in undermining the Jordanian regime. The downfall of the monarchy will lead to chaos, to cross border attacks and to the emergence of a political system dominated by the Islamists. Hence, on Nov. 28, President Shimon Peres went to Jordan and, on behalf of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, assured the king that Israel continues to consider Jordan "a vital strategic interest."

Furthermore, in line with Peres' assurances, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman issued a statement that reversed his former position, according to which "Jordan is Palestine." In his statement, Lieberman said that "Jordan is a sovereign and independent country. All talk about Jordan being a substitute for Palestine is both negative and destabilizing."

But the most dramatic change in Israel's strategic position concerns Syria. At the beginning of the uprising in March, Israel quietly favoured the continuation of Bashar Assad's regime. But later in the summer, Israel reversed its position and now favours the end of his regime.

"The Assads have ended their historic role in Syria," Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said. "It's a question of weeks, possibly months, before Assad and his family leave Damascus."

The reason for the change in the Israeli position is obvious -- Iran.

The U.S., Europe (especially Great Britain), Turkey and Israel, have reached the conclusion that the downfall of Assad would lead to the weakening (if not to the downfall) of Iran.

This could have enormous ramifications. It would also lead to the weakening of Lebanon's Hezbollah and could also influence the outcome of the internal struggle in Iraq, between the Shiites and the Sunnis.

This is, of course, in addition to the ongoing effort to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear. It is in this context that we should understand the sudden Israeli announcement about the creation in the Israeli army of "Depth Command" headed by retired army general and a veteran of many commando operations, Maj-Gen. Shay Avital.

The new command will co-ordinate all Israeli air and naval operations in distant countries. Israel has conducted several daring operations in the past, the latest being -- according to former president George W. Bush -- the destruction of the Syrian nuclear facility in Deir el-Zor.

The creation of the "Depth Command" indicates a need to co-ordinate future air and naval operations by Israel alone, or in co-operation with other countries, possibly the United States.

Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free

Press Middle East correspondent.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition December 21, 2011 A11