Jordan, Israel adrift

Under pressure from the U.S., and in order to save Israeli-Jordanian relations, Netanyahu eventually relented, the 1994 Israeli-Jordanian peace was saved, but Hussein and Abdullah never forgot and never trusted Netanyahu again.

This suspicion was evident in Israel on Monday when Jordan toned down all events to mark 15 years of peace between the two countries.

The anniversary was marked only by a symposium at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, with very limited Jordanian participation.

Indeed, 15 years after they signed the peace treaty on Oct. 26, 1994, Israel and Jordan look like a couple who lost interest in each other. They remain "married" only because of their joint assets, especially in Jerusalem's holy places.

In their peace accord, Israel granted Jordan a special role in the Holy Christian and Muslim sites in East Jerusalem.

Jordan follows with great suspicion the growing involvement of Israeli extremist Muslims in the violence around al-Aqsa mosque, and suspects that Israeli Arabs, in collaboration with West Bank Muslims, are trying to push it from its special role.

All of King Abdullah's anger is directed at Netanyahu. In an interview with the Italian daily La Republica, King Abdullah is quoted as saying: "When Netanyahu was elected to a second term as prime minister, he came to see me in Amman. He made several promises, none of them was kept."

Indeed, Israeli-Jordanian relations are today in deep freeze. Except for the security co-operation, no civilian joint project is being built; no joint airport in Eilat-Aqaba; no joint seaport in Aqaba.

The Red Sea-Dead Sea canal, which Jordan hopes will save the Dead Sea, is going nowhere.

Under the terms of the peace agreement, Israel supplies Jordan with water from the Jordan river. Drought, however, has created a scarcity of water in both countries that is not being relieved by planned desalination plants that remain "under study."

In day-to-day life, the average Jordanian doesn't feel any improvement in his standard of living. Unemployment is growing -- officially, it stands at 12.5 per cent, unofficially it's more than 20 per cent. Poverty -- especially outside of Amman -- is painful.

For all these reasons, there is growing opposition to the peace with Israel. Recently, 35 members of the Jordanian parliament signed a petition calling on King Abdullah to abandon the peace with Israel. Demonstrators in Amman Monday chanted the same slogan.

More serious is the lack of strategic co-ordination between the two countries to face future regional challenges.

For example, nobody knows what will be the impact of the withdrawal from Iraq and who will fill the vacuum created by the hasty American withdrawal from the Iraqi cities. Can Iraq defend itself against joint Iranian-Syrian subversion? If not, how would this impact on Jordan's stability? Could Jordan's King Abdullah block the wave of Iraqi refugees into his country?

All these problems have a direct effect on Israel's security.

On many occasions in the past, Israel assured kings Hussein and Abdullah that an independent Jordan is a "strategic asset" for Israel. This definition is still valid.

But one wonders why there is no strategic dialogue between Israel and Jordan?

If Israel doesn't wake up and move immediately to save its peace with Jordan, it could wake up one day to realize that King Abdullah is looking for another, more promising alliance.

Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free Press Middle East correspondent.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition October 27, 2009 A11