The View from the West

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Obama's Mideast fumbles disappoint Israel, Arabs

By: Samuel Segev

Posted: 09/1/2009 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies)

TEL AVIV -- Israel and the entire region are following with great unease what appears to be a steady decline in President Barack Obama's ability to lead the Free World.

Obama's shotgun approach to the region and his determination to reverse -- at any cost -- all of former president George W. Bush's policies without a cohesive alternative strategy, have disappointed many of his supporters in the region. Seven months after Obama occupied the White House, and three months after his Cairo speech, it is now clear that there was more to that than was at first apparent.

Since Obama entered the White House on Jan. 20, the U.S. has virtually folded in Iraq, is stumbling in Afghanistan and does not occupy itself very much with Lebanon. Syria and Iran drew an immediate conclusion from Obama's weakened position. The withdrawal of American troops from all Iraqi cities proved to be premature and resulted in hundreds of victims of Iranian-Syrian inspired terrorists. This devastating wave of suicide attacks threatens to reverse years of American efforts to stabilize Iraq.

As far as Israel and the moderate Arab countries are concerned, however, there is no more important issue than the need to contain Iran. It's not just Iran's hegemonial ambitions and the nuclear threat to Israel, but also the Iranian support to seditious Sunni groups in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gaza Strip, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. All these countries feel that Obama's constant signals that the U.S. is eager to leave and go home have created a vacuum that Iran is ready to fill.

By inviting dialogue, Obama enabled Iran to buy more time to advance its nuclear program and broke the international momentum to force Tehran to suspend its uranium enrichment. This became evident in the report by the International Atomic Energy Agency that was published last week, in advance of a Sept. 7 meeting of the agency's 35-member policy-making body in Vienna.

The report clearly states that Iran has bolstered its ability to make nuclear fuel, but has slowed its output. The report also says that, despite some improvements in its attitudes, Iran is still refusing to turn over important documents related to its military nuclear program. It concluded that if Iran's current stockpile of low-enriched uranium was further purified, Iran could have close to enough for two warheads.

Israeli officials who are closely monitoring these developments conclude that Iran is close to its strategic goal: to cumulate enough nuclear fuel for a bomb but without actually producing one. This would give Iran great strategic benefits, without exposing it to a western nuclear strike.

This is likely to be one of the top subjects discussed Wednesday in Frankfurt by the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Germany. France and Germany say they will press for stricter economic sanctions against Iran.

Israeli sources reveal that this was the main subject discussion between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Western Europe last week. The sharp statements by Brown and Merkel about the need to stop all Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank, were -- of course -- forcefully stated.

But the primary focus was on Iran, and Netanyahu is reported to be very pleased with what he heard. Israel, Germany and Great Britain share the same view about the danger Iran poses. They also agree that much depends now on the U.S. Will Obama raise to the challenge of a nuclear Iran?

Samuel Segev is the Free Press Middle East correspondent.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition September 1, 2009 A11

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