Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Sarah Palin as president? Can't see it
If you have spent enough time at any post-secondary institution in Canada, you will know that conversations about politics among students rarely result in consensus. The only one I have been able to find so far is that everyone is scared out of their wits about ex-Alaska governor Sarah Palin.
Whenever the discussion turns to her, almost invariably, one person will say "I really don't want that crazy (blank) to be president."
For the record, it's not just students. My own grandmother has echoed this sentiment, only more politely.
The general opinion is that if Canada is going to be so closely aligned with the United States, we'd prefer it if we could respect its president.
My response is always the same: A Palin presidency will not happen.
To begin with, the race for the presidential nomination in early 2008 proved the Republican establishment favours electability (eventual nominee, moderate Arizona senator John McCain) over ideology (ex-Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee) and personality (ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney). Remember the distinction between the people who influence the media and the people who influence the final vote. They are not one and the same.
Palin has already divorced herself from the Republican establishment, primarily by catering to non-partisan activists. Knowing she would not hesitate to dump her own party for a faceless group of "her people" on the grounds of insufficient conservatism, they would not run the risk of making her their standard-bearer. She's too difficult to control for their tastes.
Secondly, there is the issue of Palin's own electability. No amount of radio pranks or lengthy Vanity Fair hit pieces can do more damage to Palin than she consistently does to herself.
An aspiring president, in most cases, would a) educate themselves about national public policy matters and b) reach out to demographics outside their base, especially after ruining their chance to be the next Ronald Reagan by earning a reputation as the next Dan Quayle.
Palin has done neither of these things. She sticks to the few issues she can argue best -- taxes, abortion, the media -- with a little Obama-bashing thrown in for good measure, but not more.
She speaks in the most deeply red parts of the U.S., in front of their most deeply red residents, but not more.
The only difference between 2008 Palin and 2010 Palin is that the latter really does get paid by Fox News.
Finally, there is the availability of far more viable Republican candidates. Romney is considered charismatic, not too conservative and highly knowledgeable about economic issues. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty can attract the don't-tread-on-me crowd without turning off more ambivalent Republicans. Ohio congressman Eric Cantor has one-upped the Democratic majority on numerous spending debates and, at 47, can pick up younger voters.
It's not all about Palin. She will have competitors in the primaries who can outdo her with their eyes closed.
Neither students nor any other Canadians should fear ever uttering the words "President Palin." A lot of things can happen in two years. Her political improvement is not likely one of them.
Jess Chapman is a creative communications student at Red River Community College. She blogs about U.S. politics at thefutureamerican.wordpress.com.
Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition September 7, 2010 A14
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