THE gap between the front-running Conservatives and the rising NDP has narrowed to just three points, a new poll finds.
The Ekos-iPolitics survey shows the Liberals trailing 11 points behind in an increasingly tight two-way race to the finish. Latest three-day polling data finds the Conservatives with 34.6 per cent of support of decided and leaning voters, the NDP holding 31.4 per cent and the Liberals clinging to 20.4 per cent.
And because the NDP holds a distinct advantage as the second choice for the greatest number of Canadians, pollster Frank Graves said the party still has room to grow if it wins over wavering voters in the final hours of the campaign.
"It’s not impossible the NDP could come out tied in this election," he said.
The Conservatives show some 11th-hour growth in the important battleground of Ontario, where the party now has 39.8 per cent support. The Liberals hold 26.7 per cent in the province, while the NDP has 26.2 per cent. Vote-splitting makes predicting seat counts extremely difficult, as dynamics vary significantly from riding to riding. With room for movement still left, Graves said the outcome of Monday’s election will rest largely on these Ontario races.
"The key question is whether those movements to the Conservatives are real, and whether they continue," Graves said. "If they do, that will keep the Conservatives in a minority, but there’s no chance they’re going to get a majority."
In Quebec, the NDP surge shows no signs of receding; the party now holds 39.9 per cent support, while the Bloc Quebecois sits at 22.8 per cent. The Liberals have 15.2 per cent and the Conservatives 14.6 per cent.
In British Columbia, the NDP and Conservatives are tied with 36.5 and 36.3 per cent respectively, while the Liberals hold 15.3 per cent. The Greens have their best strength in that province, where leader Elizabeth May has spent most of the campaign, now holding 9.3 per cent support.
The Greens are at 6.3 per cent support and the Bloc Quebecois at 5.2 per cent nationally.
The EKOS-iPolitics poll surveyed 3,268 adult Canadians, including 2,988 decided voters, between April 28-30. Results are considered accurate within plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll asked the question: "If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?"
For more details, see http://ipolitics.ca/2011/05/01/conservative-ndp-gap-narrows-to-three-points-in-dwindling-hours-of-campaign