You read it here first: 49ers, Pats in XLVI

The NFL conference semifinals we witnessed this past weekend were a rudimentary example of the importance of football fundamentals.

For the better part of three quarters the New Orleans Saints were all the San Francisco 49ers could handle. Their defence was playing better, their offence was playing better, but they turned the ball over five times and thereby kept the 49ers hanging around. Normally when a pivot like Alex Smith plays as poorly as he did for the majority of the game the lead would be insurmountable, but when he finally figured out that tight end Vernon Davis was the best player on the field, and because of all these turnovers, it was not too late for San Fran to pull this game out of the fire in spectacular fashion.

In Green Bay, the Packers failed at the football fundamentals of both ball security and pass catching -- with nearly 10 dropped balls -- and the Giants found themselves building an insurmountable lead as a consequence. The entire Packers roster must have been experiencing a form of déj vu this game, as they were dictated to by a team that struggled to make the playoffs, got hot at the right time, and went on the road all the way to the NFC championship game. That's the way Green Bay did it last year, eventually leading them to a Super Bowl win.

So what do the conference championship games have in store for us this Sunday?

First, let's get the AFC championship game out of the way. After watching the New England Patriots perform flawlessly against the Broncos, and the Ravens catch breaks and struggle mightily against the Texans, nobody in their right mind thinks Joe Flacco and friends have a hope against New England. The Patriots are too polished, too precise, have too much experience, and apparently their coach has even found a way to make their 31st-ranked defence look good. This is exactly what the Ravens want to hear going into Foxborough, but it really won't matter. Maybe if Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were 26 and 23 years old instead of 36 and 33 they would have a shot, but I just don't see it. Think of the New England offence as a mighty Boeing jet, where the only chance these Ravens have is the unlikely probability of flying into the turbine engines at takeoff. Unfortunately for the Ravens, I think this aircraft is flying too high and too far out of their range and capabilities.

In the NFC championship, the New York Giants are taking their act to San Francisco. Coming up with a decisive winner in this contest is tapping the limits of my analytical skills. These opponents are similar, as they both play physical football in all three phases of the game. They met once this regular season where the 49ers beat them at home in a 27-20 nail-biter.

Everybody is saying the teams, personnel-wise, are mirror images of one another but I disagree. I don't care if Alex Smith played a spirited fourth quarter against the Saints, he was brutal in the first three, and outside of a big run or two from Frank Gore, nobody on the 49er offence impresses me outside of Vernon Davis -- who is the most talented player that will take the field next Sunday.

Eli Manning is a far superior quarterback but he won't have 30 steamboats to work through his progressions like he did against Green Bay. I prefer the Giants running game to that of the 49ers, but the 49ers have the best run defence in the league to counteract that advantage.

I think New Orleans found the blueprint for defeating the 49er offence -- blitz them like there is no tomorrow, as Smith flounders with pressure in his face -- but the Giants like to rely on their front four to push the pocket without adding to the rush, so who knows if they will take heed of the success the Saints had. The Giants have a better receiving group with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, but once again, they aren't playing the worst defence in the NFL like they were against the Packers.

So who do you take? The team with the proven, Super Bowl MVP-calibre quarterback and the hotter squad that is following the same path the Packers took last year, or the team with the best overall defence in the playoffs that is playing at home and has already beaten their opponent this year?

Smith in the Super Bowl just doesn't sound right to me, but his defence should win this NFC championship.

Doug Brown, always a hard-hitting defensive lineman and frequently a hard-hitting columnist, appears Tuesdays in the Free Press.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition January 17, 2012 D4