Some good, some bad: interpreting key signs

FROM the perspective of a fan who wants to see the Winnipeg Jets-Carolina Hurricanes' season-opener here on Oct. 13, here's how to interpret events leading up to the NHL's labour stalemate that exists today.

This week's two meetings

The NHL and NHLPA met Wednesday and Thursday in Toronto. Sort of. Wednesday, the top two executives on each side met prior to a scheduled session, then scrubbed the session. The sides met on Thursday for almost two hours but "post-game" comments revealed that to be almost a waste of time.

Direction: Negative — dire. Details are not being discussed publicly by the leaders of either side but there is no evidence whatsoever of any urgency or willingness to negotiate.

Continued mention of a magic date

That would be Sept. 15, the expiration date of the CBA that went into effect July 22, 2005 after a 310-day lockout and a lost season. Union executive director Donald Fehr continues to say that the date is not a "magic" one.

Direction: Negative — ominous. If Fehr means there is no heat imposed by the date, he is likely in the minority. There are few who doubt commissioner Gary Bettman will impose a lockout then, and it's becoming obvious that fans, at least in Canada, are getting antsy about that timing.

Meetings are scheduled

They took place this week and the plan is that they will again in New York the next two weeks.

Direction: Positive — There will be no deal when the sides aren't talking. The 2004 lockout saw a three-month dark period after the lockout began, a veritable catastrophe but revealing in terms of how entrenched each side was in its position.

August 2012

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman just comes out and says what everyone expects — the players will be locked out if there is not a deal by the end of Sept. 15.

Direction: Mostly neutral — Not a shred of surprise here, just confirming the owners learned their lesson from 1992, when the players went on strike for 10 days right before the playoffs, threatening to scuttle the entire season's outcome. That's not going to happen again. This year, the NHLPA has been saying once again it would be happy to start the season under the old rules, but that was a "fool-me-once" play if ever there was one.

July 13

The owners' initial offer gets the bargaining process into meat and potatoes, but also onto rocky ground. The proposal includes reduction in the players' share of HRR to 46 per cent from 57, five-year limits on contracts and 10 years of service before unrestricted free agency.

Direction: Not as catastrophic as most have thought. The outrage from some players, agents and commentators is overdone. Did they expect the league to start with a high offer? It was a very normal play by the league and just a starting point, a point that was missed by many. Still, the requests tabled confirmed that the owners weren't going to be softballing this negotiation.

June, 2012

Under the terms of the expiring deal, so that the league (both players and owners) can conduct business (i.e. award and sign big contracts), the salary cap is set at $70.2 million and the salary floor at $54.2 million.

Direction: Irrelevant in big markets; negative in all others. The cap and floor were about $39 million and $23 million when this CBA began and a floor that's 235 per cent what it was in 2005 is the most threatening state of the league's salary system.

March, 2012

The NHL for the first time since 2007, says it will not conduct pre-season or season-opening games in Europe.

Direction: Negative — major. It's a loss of revenue overall and the worst detail is that the league would have scheduled the games but could not find agreement with the NHLPA on how to divvy up the cancellation costs, should that be required due to the CBA's expiration. Early impasse sets the table for what's to come.

Realignment scuttled

In January this year, the NHLPA imposed a veto on a geographical realignment made necessary by the league's move back to Winnipeg.

Direction: Negative — particularly in Winnipeg. Reasons and excuses, some lame, were offered for stopping the plan but the players decided to hold the league and its fans hostage for a bargaining chip. You can't blame them but it certainly was not for the greater good of the game.

December, 2010

Donald Fehr is confirmed as the new executive director of the NHLPA.

Direction: Positive — The past personal acrimony between the sides in the NHL has often overshadowed the issues. Now, the players will have an experienced leader with a track record of improving an athlete's deal, one who engages their participation. And while it may not sound like much as things get tense and blood may go a little bad in the next three weeks, it gives them a fresh face at the table and could help avert future damage, the kind seen with Bettman vs. Goodenow eight and 18 years ago.

Players' side of the table is populated, 2012

Direction: Positive — very. Look past some of the coming rhetoric. The more players who are engaged with the process will only help the outcome. That way, the result will not be decided by a select few. In the past, a large majority of players may have been at fault for not involving themselves, but a vacuum of information and voice left the players sometimes feeling like outsiders and occasionally looking like uninformed fools and mutineers.

Loose cannons

Nothing 1994-style — remember Chris Chelios threatening Bettman? -- yet.

Direction: Positive — No guarantee Fehr and his leadership group can keep a lid on every angered member or dissenter indefinitely. Same for Bettman and his ownership cabal. Especially in the age of social media. But there is a cardinal rule and one that ought to be a top priority, (insight provided, with thanks, to our good friend and NHL player agent Don Baizley, who has a successful and long resume of labour and contract negotiations) -- the lower you can keep the overall temperature of the negotiations, the greater chance of a deal.

The Calendar

September is seven days away and the CBA's expiration is now just three weeks hence.

Direction: Negative — It never hurts to pray for the occasional miracle, but this negotiation was bound to push to and past the deadline. The league has too much disparity among clubs for revenue generation and the players, with a new leader, gave back plenty last time in order to get the league up and running again.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition August 25, 2012 C4