TEL AVIV -- When U.S. President George W. Bush arrives this week for his second visit to Israel this year, he will find a new Middle East where Syria and Iran have increased their influence at the expense of Israel and moderate, pro-western Arab allies.
After six days of local and limited fighting, Hezbollah has created in Lebanon a new balance of power. As the only ethnic and religious group that commands an armed militia, a militia stronger than the national army, Hezbollah -- and not the weak, pro-western government of Fuad Siniora -- now holds the real power in Lebanon. This new development has serious regional implications.
Israel is concerned that the unrest in Lebanon will also boost also Iran's influence with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has declared recently that Egypt has now a border with Iran, a reference to the situation in the Gaza Strip. For Israel, it's even worse, because it also now has a "border" with Iran, through Hezbollah, on its northern border with Lebanon.
Egypt's intelligence chief, Gen. Omar Suleiman, arrived Monday in Israel to discuss a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas for six months, in the Gaza Strip. Suleiman's proposals fall short of Israel's security needs. In meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defence Minister Ehud Barak, Suleiman was told Israel insists on guarantees that Hamas will not continue smuggling of arms into Gaza and also makes the ceasefire conditional on the release of a kidnapped Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit. The Egyptian proposal suggests ceasefire first and then continued negotiations on the release of Shalit. Suleiman told his Israeli counterparts that he will seek further clarifications from Hamas before a ceasefire could go into effect.
The new situation in Lebanon will be at the centre of discussions with Bush and his aides -- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley. American intelligence analysts agree with their Israeli counterparts that the appearance of Syria's supporters for the first time in the streets of Beirut, alongside the Hezbollah militias, constitutes proof of direct Syrian involvement in the Lebanese crisis.
This new situation has caused a major problem for Bush. Since the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Syrian President Bashar Assad has consistently argued that he is not directly involved in Lebanese affairs.
The U.S. has since given $1.3 billion for the reconstruction of Lebanon. Of this amount, $400 million was spent on training and equipping the Lebanese army. However, when Hezbollah launched its "Operation Breaking the Balance" last week, the Lebanese army did not intervene. The Lebanese chief of general staff, General Michel Suleiman -- who is the "consensus candidate" for Lebanon's presidency -- ordered the army not to interfere in the struggle between Hezbollah and the government. He argued that the army is composed of Sunnis, Shiites, Druze and Christians and he wanted the army to remain united, not divided along sectarian and religious lines.
Suleiman's decision sealed the outcome of the battle.
After Hezbollah has proven its supremacy, all factions agreed that the army would control Beirut and other cities and that two government decisions that sparked the strife would be cancelled. Those decisions were the removal of a Hezbollah sympathizer from the security control of Beirut's international airport because of suspicions that he had turned a blind eye to arms shipments from Tehran to Beirut; and -- more seriously -- to cancel a communications system that Iran has established for Hezbollah and which enabled direct contact with Damascus and Tehran without Lebanese government control.
Siniora was forced to go back on his decisions. It was a humiliating defeat for the government and it proved that Hezbollah now holds the real power in the country.
When dealing with Lebanese crisis, we should always remember that Lebanon was never ruled according to the simple framework of minority and majority. Power was always shared between the various ethnic and religious groups. Hezbollah represents a sizable Shiite group, but it felt that it did not get its fair share in the government. Hence, all its ministers resigned from the Siniora government that was composed mainly of Sunni, Druze and Christian ministers.
After the resignation of the six Shiite ministers, it became clear that the "explosion" was only a matter of time.
Supported by the U.S., the moderate Arab Sunni states, the European Union (and discreetly by Israel), Siniora tried to ignore the complex reality of Lebanon's politics, where there are never permanent victors and permanent losers.
He was determined to prevent the Iraqification of Lebanon, even at the price of domestic strife. He overestimated his power.
At this stage it's still premature to guess the outcome of this Lebanese crisis. It concerns not only Lebanon, but also Israel and the moderate Arab Sunni countries that do not want to see Shiite Iran become the power-broker of the Sunni Arab world. Hence, all now agree that the Lebanese crisis takes precedence over the Palestinian issue. The question remains, however, of how Bush would accept the idea that his Israeli-Palestinian peace process will have to now be put in the deep freeze.
Samuel Segev is the Free Press Middle East correspondent. He is based in Tel Aviv.
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