FORMER Liberal senator Keith Davey was the heart and soul of the Liberal party for 25 years, winning more national election campaigns than anyone in North America. His shrewd political instinct earned him the sobriquet of "The Rainmaker."
In his 1986 autobiography of the same title, Davey describes his formula for the string of electoral successes enjoyed by Lester B. Pearson and Pierre Elliott Trudeau. It should be required reading for Stéphane Dion's fractured Liberals as they wrestle with how to cross the many non-confidence tripwires the governing Conservatives have laid for them in the weeks ahead.
Davey's book sets out "Ten Commandments of Liberalism." The most relevant today are: "Stay on the road to reform and keep left of centre." "Revere the leader." And "Hang together."
As Davey's autobiography makes clear, "Keep left of centre" is by far the most important. The Liberal Rainmaker returns to it over and over again.
"In terms of practical politics, it is when the Liberal party shifts to the right that we lose elections. I have always believed that the Liberal party wins elections when it is most liberal," Davey writes on page 38.
On page 101, he repeats the refrain: "(F)aced with the alternative of voting for a real Tory or a carbon-copy Tory, the real Tory will vote for the real thing every time. Right-wing liberalism is a recipe for political disaster."
Davey didn't want his party confused in the public's mind with the more centrist Progressive Conservatives. Imagine his distress over any Liberal conflation with today's harder-right Republican-Conservatives.
Yet today's Liberal caucus has repudiated virtually all Davey's maxims. It is restive and dismissive of a leader it refused to support for the leadership. Its front bench is tilted to the right, particularly on foreign and fiscal policy. And it is a journalist's cornucopia of internal bickering, backbiting and damaging leaks.
What would Davey's advice be?
Don't trip any of the Conservative trip-wires. Exploit the fact Prime Minister Stephen Harper is trapped in his own fixed-election-date web, ceding the timing of the next election to the opposition. Make him repudiate the law or keep governing until October 2009 if that's what it takes to be ready.
Borrow a page from the politics of hope and inspiration south of the border. Stop listening to the opinion leaders and the special interests. Listen to Canadians -- on Afghanistan, on rebuilding the social safety net, on creating a more equal society. In other words, on keeping left of centre.
Nik Nanos of Nanos Research says public opinion is turning against slice-and-dice, wedge-issue politics, hurting the Conservatives' core strategy. He further believes the next election will polarize Canadians between Harper and Dion. Dion's strategic alliance with Green Leader Elizabeth May "could make a big difference in a very close race."
An opportunity for the Dion Liberals to exploit the chasm that should exist between themselves and the Harper Conservatives came Sunday evening.
Ever eager to awe the media and intimidate their opponents, the Conservatives showcased their flashy headquarters, bulging party coffers and insatiable appetite for attack ads. The master of ceremonies for this latest extravaganza of hype and bile was Industry Minister Jim Prentice. It's a sign of the Conservatives' growing desperation over their stagnant poll numbers that they would use one of the most moderate and credible cabinet members to be ringmaster.
The partisan nastiness probably repelled more voters than it impressed. To his credit, Prentice looked anything but happy, clutching In Search of Priorities, his party's parody of the Liberals' Red Book election manifestos. According to the Conservatives, the Liberals would rack up a combined deficit of $62.5 billion over the next four years. Liberal finance critic John McCallum labelled it "a big lie" designed to hide the Conservatives' own fiscal mismanagement.
The new attack ad builds on the theme of its predecessors, showing a stream of unflattering pictures of the Liberal leader to claim he's weak and then massaging one of his quotes into an outright fabrication.
"Yes, Canada will cut megatonnes of (greenhouse gas) emissions, but we will also make megatonnes of money," Dion has said in several speeches. The Conservative ad excises everything except "megatonnes of money."
Confronted with the dishonesty, Prentice stumbled, then said, lamely: "Well, he said it, didn't he?"
If any party is living in a deficit glass house and should avoid throwing stones, it's the Conservatives. They have cut taxes by $40.2 billion per year and could put Canada back into deficit within two.
Unfortunately for the Liberals, they, too, want to cut corporate taxes.
Keith Davey knew Canada's electoral "sweet spot" is the two-thirds of Canadians on the centre-left. Too bad today's Liberals are focused on placating the one-third on the right who will never vote for them anyway.
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