TEL AVIV -- Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak once likened Israel to an "isolated villa in a jungle." He warned that should Israel lose its deterrence, it will be eaten up by the jungle animals.
Lebanon appeared this week to fit quite well into Barak's zoological description. Being unable to overpower Syria and Hezbollah, Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora is being forced to pay the price of the possible Franco-Syrian rapprochement. Syrian President Bashar Assad is going to Paris on Saturday to attend French President Nicolas Sarkozy's initiative for a "Mediterranean Union." Some 45 countries, including Israel, are expected to attend this one-day event on July 13. Sarkozy will host Assad at the Elysee on Saturday.
Ahead of his arrival, Assad asked his supporters in Beirut to remove all obstacles and join in a new national unity government headed by Siniora. The new government is expected to be announced later this week.
This new Franco-Syrian rapprochement is totally at Lebanon's expense.
Siniora was forced to grant Hezbollah not only veto power in the new government, but also to compromise on principles.
Officially and publicly, France remains committed to United Nations resolutions calling for the establishment of an international court to try the assassins of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri. Syria is directly implicated in this assassination. Sarkozy made it clear that France would not compromise on this issue. Syria, however, is looking for some "creative ideas" that would exonerate Assef Shawkat, Assad's brother-in-law and the head of the Syrian intelligence services.
Should this happen, it will be a terrible blow to former President Jacques Chirac, whose personal friendship with Hariri shaped France's anti-Syrian policies in recent years.
Sarkozy is now making Lebanon the focus of his rapprochement with Syria.
He found Assad more than willing to co-operate in this endeavour. In response to Assad's invitation to Sarkozy to visit Damascus, the French president made the following conditions for accepting the invitation:
"ö That a consensus Lebanese president be elected, in succession to the Syrian "puppet" Emile Lahoud. This was done. Assad facilitated the election of chief of general staff, Gen. Michel Suleiman, as a consensus president and he is likely to have his first face-to-face meeting with Assad in Paris.
"ö That a new Lebanese national unity government be formed, under Siniora's premiership. The composition of the new government will be announced later this week.
"ö Finally, that Syria fully recognize Lebanon's independence and appoints a Syrian ambassador to Beirut for the first time since Lebanon's independence in 1943.
Assad promised that once Israel withdraws from Shebaaa Farms and the Lebanese-Syrian border is demarcated, he will send an ambassador to Beirut.
What remains, of course, is the disarmament of Hezbollah according to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. France, together with the U.S., sponsored this resolution. Assad knows that Sarkozy cannot and would not retreat from that resolution. Hence, Syria is advancing another "creative solution." In May 2009, Lebanon is due to hold new parliamentary elections and Hezbollah is expected to be the big winner. Such a victory will undoubtedly lead to major changes in the domestic political structure of Lebanon. In such a case, Hezbollah's armed militia would become part of the Lebanese army, subordinated to a new government greatly influenced by Hezbollah.
Until then, Syria suggests maintaining the status quo, because the present Lebanese government is unable to disarm Hezbollah by force.
The U.S., Europe, Israel and the moderate Arab countries will continue to insist on Hezbollah's disarmament, but in practice nothing can be done. Sarkozy is not sure that the UN and the international community would accept this Syrian "creative solution." France will certainly insist Syria co-operate in preventing the continued smuggling of arms to Hezbollah. The question is whether this is enough.
During his meeting with Assad on Saturday, Sarkozy will certainly discuss the Israeli-Syrian conflict. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would like very much to meet with Assad in Paris. France does not believe that the time is ripe for such a meeting. France prefers that Turkey continue to mediate between Israel and Syria. Therefore, at Syria's insistence, France assured Assad that no effort will be made to facilitate a meeting between him and Olmert.
The Mediterranean Union will not become a platform for solving the Arab-Israeli conflict, or solving Olmert's domestic problems.
Following the brilliant rescue operation of Ingrid Bettancourt and the Colombian hostages, Sarkozy and Bettancourt pledged publicly to help release the kidnapped Israeli soldier, Gilead Shalit, from the hands of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel now hopes that Sarkozy will use his influence with Assad to convince Hamas leaders in Damascus to release the kidnapped Israeli soldier. Should Assad respond positively to Sarkozy's request, this could be Assad's only contribution to ending this human tragedy.
Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free
Press Middle East correspondent.
He is based in Tel Aviv.
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