Which will Canadians prefer to tackle? Climate change and the energy crisis? The Liberal carrot and stick? Or just the Conservative stick? A political party that respects their intelligence? Or one that insults it?
One thing above all sets Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's "Green Shift" plan apart from those of his Conservative and NDP opponents. It's the only one to offer financial relief in the form of tax cuts to Canadians enduring energy costs that are rising exponentially anyway.
To offset the Liberals' carbon tax, which will rise from $10 per tonne of carbon dioxide in the first year to $40 per tonne in year four, the party's plan calls for tax cuts and benefits that, also by year four, will save average families (two adults and two children) $2,400 at the $20,000 income level, $1,900 at $40,000 and $1,300 at $60,000 and up.
Anything any government does to mitigate climate change comes with a price tag, whether it be the Conservatives' weak intensity-based emission targets or the NDP's cap-and-trade scheme.
Environment Canada predicts the Conservatives' plan will result in a four per cent increase in electricity rates and a two per cent increase in natural gas prices by 2020. But as market fundamentalists, the Conservatives oppose any tax-cut carrot to ease the pain in Canadians' wallets and count entirely on the stick of ever-rising costs to force them to change their habits. Market fundamentalism is just another phrase for survival of the fittest: The more money you have, the faster you can shift; the less money you have, the less you can do to help yourself and the environment. So you're stuck with your ancient beater and greenhouse-gas-belching furnace until you lose both your home and your transportation.
The New Democrats propose hard emission targets for industry and a cap-and-trade system plus major public investment in green technologies. But like the Conservatives, they have no plan to put money back into people's pockets to help them switch faster to eco-friendly furnaces, cars and lifestyles.
Not surprisingly, the two parties poured on the scorn.
Quebec NDP MP Tom Mulcair claimed the Liberal scheme showed "crass ignorance" and was "a train wreck of programs and numbers" that would create an expensive new federal bureaucracy.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper sank to insults and a very ugly threat. "Mr. Dion's policies are crazy," he said on Thursday. "This is crazy economics. It's crazy environmental policy." Later, he used the word "insane."
By Friday, campaigning in Saskatchewan, the prime minister claimed Dion's plan goes beyond the hated Trudeau-era National Energy Policy. It is not only designed to "screw the West... this will actually screw everybody across the country." An additional political setback sent Harper over the edge. Furious that a federal court had just ruled his government's gag order on the Canadian Wheat Board unconstitutional, he vowed to "continue the fight" to end the board's monopoly. "Western Canadian farmers want this freedom and anybody who stands in their way is going to get walked over."
Whenever politicians start hurling epithets, insults and threats, it's a sure sign they're worried, if not running scared. They should be. A Harris-Decima poll released this week found Dion's gambit has the potential to become a significant vote-getter, favoured by two-thirds of Liberals, 59 per cent of New Democrats, 62 per cent of Bloc Québécois and 48 per cent of Greens -- enough for a healthy majority government.
Commentators have made much of the fact the Liberal plan is too complicated for voters to understand.
What's complicated about being rewarded by your government for helping yourself and your country tackle the fundamental crisis of our age: the warming of the planet and the rapid disappearance of the fossil fuels upon which modern society is based?
And this may be how Dion and his Liberals score their biggest win. In sharp contrast to the Conservatives' endless cycle of attack ads, the Liberals are paying voters the highest of compliments. They are respecting and appealing to their intelligence.
In last Tuesday's speech to a sold-out Winnipeg Canadian Club crowd sprinkled with supporters of his political opponents, Dion likened his Green Shift to his equally risky Clarity Act on Quebec separation.
"They said it may be good policy, but it's bad politics... I was convinced, as I am today, that good policy makes for good politics..."
The Liberal leader won a standing ovation for these concluding words: "I am convinced that far too many political elites underestimate Canadians... . In fact, time and again Canadians have been ahead of their politicians in determining what needs to be done to move this country forward...
"It's never too late for Mr. Harper to change his tune and engage in this debate positively as a prime minister should... . We Liberals believe that when you speak to the bright minds and big hearts of our great people, Canadians will support what needs to be done. We Canadians don't shy away from big challenges."
