Free Press Middle East correspondent looks back on Israel's glorious birth and analyzes its current travails
TEL AVIV -- Israel celebrated this week its 60th anniversary amid growing speculation on the identity of its next prime minister.
Embroiled in the fifth corruption scandal of his two-year premiership, Ehud Olmert is being investigated by the police on suspicion of bribery and corruption. In order not to interfere with the independence day celebrations, a court has imposed a strict gag order, denying publication of any element of the case. However, the New York Post and the New York Times identified a 75-year-old New York businessman and philanthropist as being at the centre of the new storm.
"Ben-Gurion would be (spinning) in his grave, had he known that his successor after 60 years will be a prime minister suspected of being involved in bribery and corruption," said Elkana Gali, Ben-Gurion's first political secretary. Gali, a retired journalist, attended the historic first session of Israel's nascent parliament where Israel's founding father read his historic Declaration of Independence.
Native and veteran Israelis did feel ashamed this week at the moral decline of their country. Said one prominent former cabinet minister: "How can I rejoice over Israel's independence when a president (Moshe Katzav) is forced out of office because of sexual harassment; a former finance minister (Avraham Hirschson) was forced to resign because of the suspected theft of large amounts of money from a sick-fund that he once headed; and now, a prime minister who is being continuously investigated for bribes and corruption."
This new development is particularly embarrassing because it comes on the eve of a prestigious three-day conference that President Shimon Peres is hosting in Jerusalem next week. The conference will deal with long-range subjects, such as global warming, new energy resources, shortages of food and water and diseases in Africa.
Among the participants are U.S. President George W. Bush, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, former U.S. vice-president Al Gore, Henry Kissinger, and numerous writers and Nobel prize laureates. Although invited, neither Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak nor Jordan's King Abdullah will attend. The conference will hold a day of tribute to America for its consistent support of Israel, the climax of which will be an address by Bush to the Knesset.
The possible forced resignation of Olmert has, of course, a direct impact on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Following her 15th visit to the region in two years, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Sunday that she remained hopeful that both Israel and the Palestinians will strike a deal before the end of Bush's presidential term early next year.
Rice came to Israel last Saturday and dined with Olmert that same evening. On Sunday she met four times with Defence Minister Ehud Barak and twice with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. She also met with Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and the head of the Palestinian negotiating team, Ahmad Qurei.
A reliable source said that "Rice left the region very disturbed." She knows that should Olmert be forced to resign, there will be a long period of instability in the region and the peace process will reach a dangerous standstill.
The Palestinians and the various Arab countries are aware of such a possibility. Saeb Erekat, a senior Palestinian negotiator, said that "it's clear now that the Palestinians have no partner for negotiations and peace."
What is more important is what will happen to the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that Egypt has negotiated with Hamas. Even before the "explosion" of the new bribery scandal, Israeli security officials expressed reservations about some elements in the Egyptian proposal, while Olmert and Livni were ready to accept the deal. In view of the new development, could Olmert accept what the army is rejecting? It's doubtful.
Finally, the domestic Israeli scene: The option preferred by Olmert's political party, Kadima, and supported by Rice, is that should Olmert resign, then Tzipi Livni should succeed him. Would Livni be accepted by her own Kadima Knesset members? Former defence minister and chief of general staff Shaul Mofaz is known to be ready to challenge Livni's leadership.
There are similar doubts within the Labour party.
Defence Minister Ehud Barak has friendly relations with Livni, but many in his party don't believe that the foreign minister has leadership qualities and they prefer early elections.
Like all crises in Israel, this new "Olmert crisis" is unlikely to be solved within days or weeks. This evaluation will change only if Attorney General Meny Mazouz, decides on Olmert's future very soon.
Speedy decisions are not his nature. But this time, he might surprise.
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