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Flooding may be worse than expected: study

By: Malcolm Ritter

Posted: 12/17/2009 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies)

NEW YORK -- Global warming in this century might raise sea levels more than expected in future centuries, says a study that looked at what happened when Neanderthals roamed Europe.

Unless global warming is curbed or expensive measures taken to hold back rising water, the projected sea level rise could submerge about one-third of Florida, southern Manhattan, much of Bangladesh and almost all the Netherlands, for example, researchers said.

Climate expert Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University praised the work but cautioned that such projections can't be made with precision.

Warmth can raise sea levels by expanding water volume and melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica. To assess what future warming might do to sea levels, scientists at Princeton and Harvard universities looked at Earth's last warm period, which peaked some 125,000 years ago.

During this time, Neanderthals lived in Europe and elephants roamed what is now southern Britain and New York state. Lions prowled and hippos bathed in France, Spain and Italy.

So what happened to sea level during this warm stage? Previous studies have estimated that the global sea level was maybe four metres six metres higher than today.

The new work, reported in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature, says it almost certainly peaked at more than 6.7 metres higher than today. In fact, it probably rose between eight and nine metres), researchers concluded.

Temperatures at the North and South Poles -- critical for triggering ice melt -- could return to such levels again if the global temperature rises about two degrees Celsius, the researchers said.

Scientists project that without concerted action, as is now being discussed in Copenhagen, Earth could add that much heat in this century from the buildup of greenhouse gases.

-- The Associated Press

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition December 17, 2009 A11

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