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Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Why, 16 months after Mubarak ousted, Egypt's revolution has failed
CAIRO -- On the eve of a presidential election and two weeks before they are supposed to hand over authority, the military generals who were the power behind Hosni Mubarak's rule are more entrenched in control than anyone in Egypt had ever intended. That shows no sign of changing.
They are poised to have a president who will bend to their will, with no parliament or constitution to put checks on them. How did Egypt get to this point, after a revolution intended to sweep out Mubarak's old order and bring democracy? A ruling Thursday by judges he had appointed dissolved the freely elected, Islamist-dominated parliament and sealed the military's leading role. But it was only the latest step in a path Egypt was put on soon after Mubarak was removed by his military brethren on Feb. 11, 2011.
For 16 tortured months, three factors have shaped that course:
-- The military firmly controlled the transition.
-- The Muslim Brotherhood tried to ride that transition to win power, but overreached.
-- And the young leftist and secular revolutionaries who launched the revolt were in too much disarray to bring their dreams to fruition.
The international scene also played a significant role: Saudi Arabia and the United States deeply worried about instability and saw in the generals someone they could or had to trust.
There was a brief glimmer of a different route right after Mubarak fell and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Mubarak's defence minister, stepped in to rule. The council promised to hold elections for a parliament that would oversee a new constitution, then presidential elections.
The leftist and secular revolutionaries, particularly reform leader Mohammed ElBaradei, argued elections supervised by the military would be a farce and any constitution would be tainted. Instead, they proposed a civilian leadership grouping the "revolutionary powers" immediately start to rule and oversee the constitution.
Divided and inexperienced, they were overruled. The Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists broke with the revolutionaries and backed the military-run transition. They had no time for worries over military rule or talk of a revolutionary government, keeping a focus on elections in which they were confident of vaulting to power. Now the revolutionaries are saying: We told you so.
-- The Associated Press
Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition June 16, 2012 A27
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