Federal Tories poll at 57% in Manitoba
Read this article for free:
Already have an account? Log in here »
To continue reading, please subscribe with this special offer:
All-Access Digital Subscription
$1.50 for 150 days*
- Enjoy unlimited reading on winnipegfreepress.com
- Read the E-Edition, our digital replica newspaper
- Access News Break, our award-winning app
- Play interactive puzzles
*Pay $1.50 for the first 22 weeks of your subscription. After 22 weeks, price increases to the regular rate of $19.00 per month. GST will be added to each payment. Subscription can be cancelled after the first 22 weeks.
Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 12/12/2018 (1454 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.
The federal Conservative Party would win a majority government if an election were held today, according to a poll released last week.
In a random sampling of 1,541 Canadian voters, respondents in the prairies were most likely to support the federal Conservatives, at 65 per cent of voters in Alberta, and 57 per cent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Respondents in the Atlantic region were most likely to support the Liberals at 50 per cent.
This estimation suggests the Tories have gained momentum in the prairies since the 2015 election, when 37 per cent of Manitobans voted Conservative.
The survey found 43 per cent of voters said they would support the Conservatives if the federal election were held today, and 34 per cent said they would support the Liberal Party.
“We’ve had the Conservatives leading for a few polls now,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, the Toronto-based firm that conducted the survey. “So it’s not surprising in that light.”
Eleven per cent of voters said they would cast their ballots to support the New Democratic Party. Six per cent of voters said they would support the Green Party, while four per cent said they would vote for the Bloc Québécois. One per cent said they would support another party.
But the poll doesn’t necessarily hold much weight this far ahead of October’s federal election, said Bryan Peeler, an adjunct political studies professor at the University of Manitoba.
“Campaigns still matter,” said Peeler. “A lot can happen during a campaign that can sway public opinion one way or another.”
This week alone, there were several high-profile political events – like Canada’s arrest of the CFO of Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei, or the recently adopted United Nations migration pact – that could sway public opinion of the federal government in either direction, said Peeler.
“This far out from an election, I’m not sure how important these numbers are,” he said.
Peeler said the Forum Research poll appeared to be an outlier among other recent polls, which showed the Liberals and Conservatives with equal amounts of work to do to take the lead.
“The Liberals will have to get a handle on just exactly what their message is going to be for the next year. Is it going to be, ‘We’re going to keep the economy strong’? ‘We’re going to get pipelines built’? We’re going to make sure that the employment rate stays up’?” said Peeler.
“(The Conservatives’) best bet is to show Andrew Scheer as a competent manager of the economy, as someone who the Canadian public could see as a prime minister who could act in Canada’s national interests on the international stage.”
The Forum Research poll may give a general sense of what next year’s election will look like, Bozinoff said, but the numbers are still likely to fluctuate throughout the next few months.
“The polls are something that the parties are actively trying to change,” he said. “They’re not a static thing.”
The Forum Research poll was conducted through an interactive voice response phone survey on Nov. 28 and 29. The margin of error is three per cent, 19 times out of 20.