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“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
– Sun Tzu from The Art of War
Memo from Ottawa to Ontario Premier Doug Ford: you’re not helping.
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 Why this ad?
THE MACRO
The 60-second ad was nothing special. Soothing, moody music behind iconic images of Americana worthy of a country music video, and the dulcet tones of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan explaining why he thought protectionist trade laws — particularly tariffs — are bad for Americans in the long run.
It’s not a huge secret that Reagan was anti-tariff. During his time in office — 1981 to 1989 — he established himself as a tried-and-true free market capitalist. And, in a rare example of a politician actually trying to align his ideology with his policies, he did not think government intervention in global trade was productive.
You know how commonly known Reagan’s thoughts on tariffs are? I used a quote from Reagan in this newsletter one week ago. If I found those quotes via the Google machine, just about anyone could have.
So, why would Ontario Premier Doug Ford think he was being clever, inventive or — god forbid — politically strategic to produce a television ad and buy $75 million in time on U.S. television stations quoting Reagan on free trade?
Well, because he’s Doug Ford and suffers from some of the same delusions of grandeur as the maniac in Washington who started the global trade war.
History will show that Ford’s advertisement completely derailed negotiations between Ottawa and Washington that could have moderated Trump’s need to punish Canada for whatever it is we’ve done to deserve his scorn. Trump saw the ad, cancelled further talks and threatened to reduce our economy to rubble.
Like a child who got caught red-handed doing something they know is bad, Ford has been utterly unrepentant. He told reporters in Toronto the ad started “a conversation that wasn’t happening in the U.S.” and claimed it was “the most successful ad in the history of North America.”
Let’s unpack some of what Ford thinks is happening, and what is actually happening here on planet Earth.
First off, Americans do not need a busybody Canadian to jump-start a debate on tariffs. Americans are deep into living with the consequences of Trump’s destructive trade war. And they have their own opinions on the matter, developed without Ford’s intervention. Two new opinion polls published this week provide valuable insight into what Americans already felt and thought before Ford summoned the ghost of Ronald Reagan.
One poll found that more than 60 per cent disapprove of Trump’s tariff policies, and in particular do not like efforts to punish Canada. Here’s the real kicker: respondents like Canada (+49 approval rating) more than the president (-10 per cent approval rating). That’s impressive awareness of an issue that Ford believed wasn’t being debated.
The other thing that Ford doesn’t seem to understand is that Trump and the architects of his tariff policies are true believers who are not going to be swayed by anyone, even Ronald Reagan.
After losing the presidency in 2020, Trump and his protectionist advisors have been working diligently to lay the groundwork for the policies we see today. Now, he is surrounded by people like Peter Navarro, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, economist and Federal Reserve Board governor Stephen Miran and former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. These guys are pro-tariff warriors who have spent their entire careers thinking, writing and advocating for punishing trade policies.
More importantly, they all know what Reagan said about tariffs. And they disrespectfully think he was wrong.
Ford was apparently gambling — with quite a bit of taxpayer money I might add — that Trump and his cadre of tariff ideologues would be shamed into backing down when confronted by the words of a former president who is still revered by most camps across the spectrum of Republican politics. In fact, summoning Reagan only angered a man who spends most of his days daring someone to anger him.
Failure to reach a deal that eases U.S. tariffs will certainly be a defining issue for Carney. So much so that it’s in the prime minister’s best interests to talk with Ford and ask him — politely at first and then perhaps insistently — that he get the hell out of the way.
Ford thought he was being clever when he quoted Reagan. However, in the wake of his clumsy effort to sway American public opinion, another quote comes to mind from another great man of our time: Forrest Gump.
“Stupid is as stupid does.”
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