THE ice that has covered the Arctic basin for a million years will be gone in little more than six years because of global warming, a University of Manitoba geoscientist says.

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This article was published 5/12/2008 (4474 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

THE ice that has covered the Arctic basin for a million years will be gone in little more than six years because of global warming, a University of Manitoba geoscientist says.

And David Barber says once the sea ice is gone, more humans will be attracted to the Arctic, bringing with them even more ill effects.

"We'll always have ice in the winter time in the Arctic, but it will always be first-year ice," Barber said on Friday.

"2015 is our estimate for summer free (of) ice. That has got industry very interested in the Arctic. That will put more pressure there.

"The change is happening so quickly."

Barber, who will be officially presenting his preliminary findings at the International Arctic Change 2008 conference in Quebec City next week, was the scientist in charge of the Circumpolar Flaw Lead System Study (CFL), a $40-million Arctic research project.

Almost 300 scientists from 15 countries took part in the nine-month project, based on the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Amundsen.

The conference, which runs all next week, will see more than 800 Arctic researchers from around the world convene to discuss the changes in the Arctic and what countries can do about the challenges and opportunities due to climate change there.

Barber has said before the Arctic basin would be free of summer sea ice some time between 2013 and 2030.

But their research about recent changes in the Arctic has allowed them to pinpoint the date even closer.

"2007 was a really big draw back year -- it lost a lot," Barber said.

"In 2008 it recovered a bit, but my research shows there isn't anything to instill confidence in... we're expecting 2009 will be another year of low ice."

Barber said that's because the ice that grew back in 2008 is thin and not thicker multi-year ice, so he expects it will disappear quickly.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca

Kevin Rollason

Kevin Rollason
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Kevin Rollason is one of the more versatile reporters at the Winnipeg Free Press. Whether it is covering city hall, the law courts, or general reporting, Rollason can be counted on to not only answer the 5 Ws — Who, What, When, Where and Why — but to do it in an interesting and accessible way for readers.

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