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The federal NDP's orange wave that is sweeping across the nation, crashes on shore in Manitoba.
A poll conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press by Probe Research shows fewer than one-quarter of Manitobans would mark a ballot for a federal NDP candidate in the Oct. 19 election.
'The provincial NDP brand is so battered right now, it's not helping the federal brand'
The poll also shows - with 43 per cent of decided voters - Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative party is by far the most popular federal party in the province.
"(NDP Leader) Thomas Mulcair can probably thank Greg Selinger for that," Curtis Brown, Probe's vice-president, said Friday.
"The provincial NDP brand is so battered right now, it's not helping the federal brand."
Brown said the poll also shows while the federal Liberals may be behind the NDP in other parts of Canada, they are not only ahead of the NDP here, they are doing better now than the last election and are virtually tied with the Tories in Winnipeg.
"The Liberals seem to have peaked nationally, but they still seem to be competitive here," he said.
Three in 10 Manitoba voters, or 29 per cent, would vote for Justin Trudeau's Liberal party, down three per cent from a similar poll taken in September 2013, but still higher than the 17 per cent of Manitobans who voted for the party in the 2011 election.
The Green party has five per cent of surveyed voters, while 15 per cent of Manitobans say they are undecided or wouldn't say which party they would vote for.
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"But in the grand scheme of things, with 14 out of 338 seats, the federal election won't be won or lost in Manitoba," Brown said.
Brown said of the people who vote Conservative provincially, 85 per cent plan to vote for the federal Tory party. Only 62 per cent of those who vote NDP provincially plan to vote for the federal NDP. Seventy-seven per cent of those who vote Liberal provincially will cast ballots for the federal Liberals.
The poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults was conducted by telephone between June 10 and June 27. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 per cent 95 per cent of the time, and higher with the sub-groups.
Federal party support, historical
Kevin Rollason Reporter
Kevin Rollason is one of the more versatile reporters at the Winnipeg Free Press.
Whether it is covering city hall, the law courts, or general reporting, Rollason can be counted on to not only answer the 5 Ws — Who, What, When, Where and Why — but to do it in an interesting and accessible way for readers.