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Female voters dumping NDP

Poll shows shift to provincial Liberals; party still competitive in city

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/9/2015 (841 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Support for the provincial New Democrats has reached a new low as female voters abandon the governing party in favour of the Liberals.

According to a Probe Research poll for the Winnipeg Free Press, the NDP and the Liberals are in a virtual tie in support among decided voters at 25 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively.

The Progressive Conservatives continue to enjoy a healthy lead, with the support of 45 per cent.

Support for the NDP has dropped four percentage points since June, when it stood at 29 per cent.

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Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/9/2015 (841 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari

WAYNE GLOWACKI / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS

Manitoba Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari

Support for the provincial New Democrats has reached a new low as female voters abandon the governing party in favour of the Liberals.

According to a Probe Research poll for the Winnipeg Free Press, the NDP and the Liberals are in a virtual tie in support among decided voters at 25 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively.

The Progressive Conservatives continue to enjoy a healthy lead, with the support of 45 per cent.

Support for the NDP has dropped four percentage points since June, when it stood at 29 per cent.

Liberal support has risen by five points during the past three months, while Tory support edged lower by a single percentage point.

Support for the Green party and other parties remained at five per cent.

Greg Selinger

Greg Selinger

Some 18 per cent of those surveyed were either unsure or refused to say which party they favoured.

Women, long the key to the NDP's electoral success in Manitoba, are turning their backs on Greg Selinger's New Democrats.

"Both genders have been leaving the NDP, and they have been for some time, but the women seem to be disproportionately," Probe president Scott MacKay said.

Only 23 per cent of decided female voters in Manitoba said they would vote NDP if an election were held today.

That ranks the New Democrats third after the PCs (43 per cent) and the Liberals (27 per cent).

The Tories, while doing well, appear to have hit a ceiling in popular support, at about 45 per cent, MacKay said.

"Any action (voter movement) that you're seeing is all between the Liberals and the NDP," he said.

Brian Pallister

MIKE DEAL / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS

Brian Pallister

Whether NDP voters are parking their support with the Liberals temporarily remains to be seen, he added.

The Probe survey follows a Free Press report last week, quoting unnamed sources, that the NDP's own polling this summer placed support in the low-20s.

One positive for the NDP is it remains competitive in Winnipeg, where it received support from 32 per cent of decided voters compared with 35 per cent for the PCs and 27 per cent for the Liberals.

Outside of Winnipeg, despite having a stronghold over the north, it is ranked third, with only 16 per cent of decided voters, compared with 20 per cent for the Liberals and a whopping 59 per cent for the Tories.

Probe surveyed 1,000 Manitobans from Sept. 14 to 23. The results are considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Asked if the fact the survey was taken during a federal election campaign may have confused some who responded, MacKay was skeptical.

He said the steady support for the Tories and the fact his company went to great lengths to be clear it was asking Manitobans about their provincial party preferences mitigated against that.

He said it is quite possible, however, the Liberals have received a bump, in part, because the federal Liberal brand under Justin Trudeau appears to be more appealing these days.

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca

Read more by Larry Kusch.

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History

Updated on Monday, September 28, 2015 at 7:45 AM CDT: Adds photos

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