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This article was published 9/11/2018 (951 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.
We’re about 20 per cent of the way through the 2018-19 NHL season, and while the Jets are in a wild-card spot with a winning record, I think everyone who watches them regularly can see they haven’t hit their stride yet.
An underwhelming start from several key players both in terms of play and poor puck luck has the Jets looking like a team imitating the dominant cup contender they were last season. But there’s so much talent on the roster that despite a poor start, they’re not really behind where they should be by much, only a handful of points away from second in the division home-ice advantage in the playoffs.
Making bank in the standings even when you’re not playing your best is huge for any team that wants good seeding in the playoffs, but the question remains: what has changed in Winnipeg that has caused the Jets to look less than dominant? Let’s compare the team at five-on-five to last season in a variety of categories.
There is no area where the Jets are as dominant in this young season as they were in by the end of last season, which is a little concerning, but what is a bit more concerning is that they’re only outplaying their opponents in two of these categories. Fortunately for the Jets, the high-danger chances and control of passes to the slot are arguably the two most important categories for controlling goals, but that hasn’t led them to outscoring their opponents at five-on-five so far.
According to various expected goals models, the Jets have been fairly unlucky in that department based on not only their play, but also the shooting talent available on the roster. Patrik Laine for example, has zero five-on-five goals despite 13 shots on net from the slot and 14 from the perimeter; when based on his expected shooting percentage he should have about four goals on those shots.
Disregarding the actual goal differential due to poor shooting luck, in most of the categories the Jets are close to even, or at least close enough that after 15 games you shouldn’t worry, but the biggest hits have come in an area they were already weak in.
In a league that is consistently getting faster, the Jets are a bit of an outlier because they’re not a great rush team. They have players who are excellent off the rush, namely Nikolaj Ehlers, who is a top-five player in the league in that area, but as a team they’re not as adept as most at creating chances off the rush, or defending off the rush.
Opponents attempt to enter the Jets’ zone with possession 40.7 times per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which is very close to the league average, but while the average team denies 46.5 per cent of those attempted zone entries, the Jets have denied only 42.8 per cent, the fourth-worst mark in the league. That leaves the Jets defending attacks off the rush a lot more often than they want to, and they don’t happen to be very good at it, either.
Examining the number of controlled entries the Jets give up gives us part of the picture, but the details are even more important. Across the league every team gives up lots of entries, and generates a bunch of their own, but the Jets are fairly poor at both creating offence off the rush and stopping it. The Jets get a scoring chance on 30.4 per cent of their entries, which is extremely close to the league average of 30.5 per cent, but they complete a pass on only 19.3 per cent of their entries, where the league average is 24.7 per cent, a huge gap.
Defensively, things look worse, where the Jets give up a scoring chance on 33.6 per cent of the entries they allow, and their opponents complete a pass on 28.5 per cent of those entries.
Combine these two areas and you get a situation where the Jets’ are allowing far more dangerous chances off the rush than their opponents, and the entries they do get for themselves are far less dangerous. That’s a good way to get outscored.
Off the cycle and off the forecheck, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more successful team than the Jets over the last couple of seasons, but being porous off the rush leaves them particularly vulnerable to comebacks against inferior teams that have some speed, which is something the Jets are going to have to game-plan for.
One issue that could be addressed in season is the acquisition of a strong neutral-zone defenceman. It doesn’t need to be a star player. I think the loss of Tobias Enstrom is the biggest factor in why the Jets look so exploitable in this area, as he was an excellent defensive defenceman who wasn’t a star, but he possessed qualities the Jets need; a defenceman who can skate with opposing forwards, has good gap control, a good stick and isn’t afraid to challenge at the blue line.
Unless things really start to go off the rails this isn’t urgent, but around trade deadline day, if the Jets can’t find a solution internally, they’ll need to look to the trade market to shore up this area. Then again, maybe Paul Maurice and his staff can work some coaching magic.
Andrew Berkshire is a hockey writer specializing in data-driven analysis of the game. Andrew started writing for the Montreal Canadiens’ blog Eyes on the Prize in 2010, before taking over managing the site in 2012, turning it into SB Nation’s largest hockey community before he left in 2015 to become an independent contractor using SPORTLOGiQ data. Since then he has written weekly for Sportsnet and RDS, using SPORTLOGiQ’s unique tracking data, while also freelancing for Vice Sports and The Sporting News, contributing to The Point Hockey, and hosting his podcast.
Andrew Berkshire is a hockey writer specializing in data-driven analysis of the game.