Numbers shine light on Jets’ success

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 16/11/2017 (3127 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Winnipeg Jets are off to a head-turning start, and while they’ve had a few rough periods, they’ve been surviving and mostly winning.

They had 23 points on a record of 10-4-3, good for second place in the Central Division (third in the Western Conference) heading into Thursday night’s National Hockey League action.

I usually need at least 20 games to get a decent handle on a team, but I thought I’d take an early look and try to figure out whether this team is the real deal. Maybe they’re just an illusion.

The best news is the Jets’ record is money in the bank, and nobody is going to care how they earned those points when they’re in the stretch drive.

How this happened, however, makes me a bit tentative about their ability to do some damage, should they make the playoffs.

It’s possible, but they’ll need to grow a lot.

I’ve already hit you in earlier columns about the incredible amount of shots against they absorb with their penalty-killing system. Sure, they take away some seams that limit the highest-danger chances, but every shot on a power play, with proper alignment, has a chance to go in, especially with deflections, screens and rebounds.

Maybe they’ll get all the bounces and continue their latest surge (19th in the league), but they’re playing with fire with their passive approach.

Another worrisome trend is their five-on-five Corsi numbers, which are almost touching bottom, while their expected goals rank them just a few slots higher.

While these stats overall are good predictors of future performance, it’s possible the Jets are outliers here, and I’ll get to that shortly.

They currently sit third in the league in shooting percentage at 10.32 per cent, which isn’t surprising considering the high-end offensive talent they have. It’ll be tough to maintain that number, though.

Their save percentage has them sitting 12th at .925, but it’s been Connor Hellebuyck’s .930 and record of 9-1-2 that’s been the key. Steve Mason has recovered well from a poor start, and my expectation was that they’d be at least league average together — they’re comfortably there at the moment.

I labelled the Jets as a playoff team in the pre-season, however, I was depending on more than goaltending and a high shooting percentage to get them there.

Thankfully, their power-play numbers are up, humming along at a 22.8 per cent clip, good for eighth in the league.

A couple of weeks ago, I called this unit’s play abhorrent after they couldn’t even get into the offensive zone over a series of games (remember in Pittsburgh, etc.). They promptly went on a roll and showed us they were much better than where they were languishing at the time.

In my projection, I had them easily being a top 10 team on this unit — now all they have to do is maintain this.

When I get over the giddiness of the Jets’ record and look at the concerns of some underlying numbers, it brings to mind the Ottawa Senators, especially last year’s version.

That team went to the Eastern Conference final, losing to the eventual Stanley Cup-champion Pittsburgh Penguins.

During the year, they gained little respect from the analytics community, and to be honest, myself.

Their possession stats weren’t good, and watching their boring style of play probably had a lot of non-Senators fans avoiding their games.

However, they defied the predictors with a quick-strike offence, pouncing on opposition mistakes made while attempting to break down Ottawa’s “trap.” The Senators went at their opponent’s net in a hurry from that point.

While the Jets aren’t passive like the Senators — often forechecking — they both have the same goal of limiting chances on their goalie.

This usually limits offensive opportunities at the same time, but what has worked well for Ottawa may end up making them brothers in arms with the Jets.

Their philosophies seem similar, although their application and talent is different. The Senators have a record of 8-3-5 thus far, so what they did last year can’t be discounted, even as some of their current underlying numbers are mirroring their 2016-17 season. Strong goaltending played a large part in last year’s success, as well.

While the Jets don’t have an all-world defenceman like Erik Karlsson, their mix of high-end youth and veteran players gives them the edge in overall talent.

Therefore, I have to consider that the Jets might also have a formula that will withstand time, other than goaltending and the pluses mentioned earlier. Maybe I should have more confidence in what they’re doing.

I still believe the Jets will make the playoffs, but my hope was they would follow that up by going on a run like Ottawa did last season. Right now, there are too many red flags to bet on that.

The return of forward Mathieu Perreault on Thursday night against the Philadelphia Flyers is promising. Maybe he can help rescue those possession numbers, as he’s consistently been excellent at driving the play into the opponent’s end.

As I mentioned here a few weeks ago, I’m not calling the Senators an illusion anymore, and I’m certainly not tagging the Jets with that.

But the “real-deal” test for them is coming up between now and Christmas. How they handle the ups and downs of playing every second night, with a couple of back-to-backs thrown in, will give us a true sense of who they are.

Hopefully, my concerns will have disappeared by the time Santa Claus has visited.

Chosen ninth overall by the NHL’s St. Louis Blues and first overall by the WHA’s Houston Aeros in 1977, Scott Campbell has now been drafted by the Winnipeg Free Press to play a new style of game.

Twitter: @NHL_Campbell