Heat waves here to stay
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This article was published 02/07/2021 (1536 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.
Be prepared for hotter temperatures and more extreme weather events in the coming years.
It’s the future of summers in Manitoba’s prairies, according to climate change experts. Last June saw temperatures soar past 30 C day after day, with little rain to break up the sunshine in farming communities near south Winnipeg.
The rural municipality of Macdonald put water use controls in place beginning late May. They include limiting when people can water their lawns and restricting residents from washing down sidewalks and driveways, among other things.
Implementing further restrictions is a last resort, according to RM reeve Brad Erb — he’s just hoping for rain.
“We can’t really afford to go many more weeks without moisture,” said Erb, who’s also a farmer. “If we don’t get rain, that’s a pretty crippling blow to an important economic segment of our municipality.”
Macdonald has approximately 285,381 arable acres of land, according to a provincial spokesperson. To be arable, land must be able to grow crops.
The rural municipality of Cartier has an estimated 135,009 arable acres, and its neighbour St. Francois Xavier has around 50,118.
St. Francois Xavier did not have any water usage limits at the end of June, although the drinking water levels were being monitored, according to Reeve Rick Van Wyk.
He’s been farming for over 40 years and has seen periods with little precipitation before. However, the temperatures are concerning, he said.
“It’s not so bad if you get the rain, but without the rain, it dries the ground out right away,” he said. “The heads don’t fill in on the crops, and the yield potentials lower significantly, and it all dries out. It doesn’t produce hardly anything.”
The heat is likely here to stay, according to Danny Blair, a professor at The University of Winnipeg and a co-director of the Prairie Climate Centre, a research institute that aims to make climate change understandable for Canadians.
Blair said Manitoba is filled with variability — there can be a lack of moisture and a flood within the same year.
“The climate science indicates that we need to be prepared for even more variability, even more extremes in the future — higher temperatures, worse droughts,” Blair said.
And when it rains, it will rain harder, he said.
Generally, temperatures have been slowly and steadily rising, so people don’t notice as much, Blair said. In the next decade, Manitobans may see extremely hot summers, and some that are cooler than normal.
But, over decades, the province’s average temperatures in the summer and winter will continue to rise, Blair said.
At the same time, climate models predict summer precipitation will decrease.
“It’s a double whammy,” Blair said. “When they occur together in a given year or a series of years, you’re going to have some serious droughts.”
The federal government’s new report on climate change, Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues, highlights how rural communities experience the impacts of climate change disproportionately when compared to urban settings.
The document, released on June 28, echoes Blair’s concerns of a warming future and its repercussions, like intensified weather extremes.
It came a day after Lytton, B.C. took the title for hottest day recorded in Canada — 46.6 C. Lytton went on to break its own record, several times, throughout the week.
“A good amount of climate change, unfortunately, is coming no matter what,” Blair said. “We need to work hard, collectively … to reduce emissions, to minimize that climate change.”
Lowering carbon emissions is critical, Blair said.
“That’s not an easy thing to do in the prairies and the farming community because we have to travel distances, we have to operate our combines and tractors, and everything is fossil fuel-based,” Blair said. “But, we need to start to invest in getting away from fossil fuel as a primary source of energy.”
He said finding ways to conserve energy in homes and buildings, and shopping locally, can also help prevent climate change. Government incentives are important boosts too, he said.
Folks can learn more about climate change at Climate Atlas of Canada, a website Prairie Climate Centre runs.