Assessing the race for Assiniboia

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 16/07/2019 (2515 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The battle for Assiniboia may be one of the most interesting races in the Sept. 10 provincial election.
Assiniboia is wrongly considered by many as a safe Progressive Conservative seat. In 1958, the PC s won government from the Liberals but Assiniboia went from Liberal to the CCF. In 1962, the PCs  were re-elected with a strong majority but lost Assiniboia to the Liberals.

Since 1945, Assiniboia has elected seven PCs, 7 Liberals, and 6 NDP or CCF MLAs, often defying province-wide trends.

Jim Rondeau , a 17-year  NDP MLA, retired before the 2016 election. On Jan. 13, 2016, after the bizarre cancellation of a contested nomination race, Steven Fletcher, the  former federal member of Parliament was acclaimed as a star PC candidate and was summarily elected.
Despite running for a party in disarray, NDP candidate Joe McKellep  finished a strong second with 27.7 per cent of the vote.

After being passed over for cabinet, Fletcher disagreed  with his government’s creation of a new Crown Corporation, Efficiency Manitoba. On June 30, 2017 , Fletcher was expelled from the PC caucus. Fletcher remained as an MLA but will not run in the upcoming  provincial election, opting instead to run in the federal race as a candidate for the People’s Party of Canada.

In 2016, Scott Johnston was elected a PC MLA for neighbouring St. James. In this election, he will run in  Assiniboia, the district in which he lives.

Fletcher’s continued political presence in the area, even as a federal candidate, creates difficulties for Johnston. Did Johnston defend Fletcher during the provincial caucus’s expulsion debate? Has the premier ever fully explained Fletcher’s strange 2016 nomination and his 2017 expulsion from caucus.
McKellep, a resident of Assiniboia who has been involved in community affairs, is running again for the NDP. Johnston grew up farther east in St. James and was a long time school board trustee for East St. James.

After his expulsion from the PC caucus, Fletcher has strongly opposed an addictions treatment facility on the site of the Vimy Arena. Johnston has worked hard but he has not rocked the boat. He could not even convince his own government to honour its promise to renovate the St. James Civic Centre.
Will Johnston or McKellep do a better job of speaking out on local issues?

The Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate. In three of the past four elections, weak Liberal candidates have helped produce NDP victories. A sudden surge of Liberal support would help the PCs.
In this election, the NDP may feel that a return to power is unlikely. They may target specific seats, including Assiniboia,  to increase the size of their caucus.

In 1999, the PCs lost Assiniboia by considering it a ‘safe’ electoral district. If they repeat this mistake, McKellep will  be going to the Legislature.

Fred Morris is a community correspondent for St. James. Reach him at fredmorris@hotmail.com