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DENVER – Biggest game of the year? You bet. Like, Rocky Mountain big.
The Winnipeg Jets are trending in the wrong direction after back-to-back defeats at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche, and a third straight loss today would put their season on the brink. However, a win could quickly flip the script, sending it back to Winnipeg all square in what would then be a best-of-three, with the Jets carrying home-ice advantage.
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Yeah, those are some significant stakes, to say the least.
“You know what? In this room, we’ve got a lot of belief in this group, a lot of belief in our ability to get back in the series,” captain Adam Lowry said, following Saturday’s skate at Ball Arena.
“It’s not a time to panic. It’s a time to double down on what we’re good at. We’ve got a real strong conviction in what’s got us here and what’s made us successful, and I think that’s what allows us to stay calm. We know the areas of our game that we can improve upon … if we’re going to beat an elite team like the Avalanche, and we feel like we’re up for the challenge.”
To be fair, it’s not as if the Jets are being run out of the building despite the lopsided final scores of the last two games. Winnipeg carried a 2-1 lead past the midway points of both contests, only to implode.
“Just stay with it. I know it’s cliché, but we’ve got to play a full 60 (minutes),” said defenceman Neal Pionk.
“We have these five-, six-, seven-minute lapses that are really slipping away from us. I think in a couple of games we’ve given up two (or) three goals in a five-minute span. So, we’ve got to stick with it and the leaders gotta lead. We’ve got to make some plays when they’re there, and if they’re not, flip it out and restart.”
The early start today means no morning skate, so there’s a bit of guesswork involved in Winnipeg’s lineup. We know Connor Hellebuyck will start in goal, despite having been beaten 15 times already through three games. The Jets could really use a spectacular performance from the Vezina Trophy favourite.
Defenceman Brenden Dillon is unlikely to play after suffering a nasty skate cut at the end of Friday’s game, one which thankfully wasn’t as bad as it looked. One of Logan Stanley or Colin Miller would draw in. Up front, the Jets called up Axel Jonsson-Fjallby from the Manitoba Moose and he’s likely to make his series debut.
“He gives us more speed and we need some help on the penalty kill at this point,” said coach Rick Bowness.
Could there be other changes, including tweaks to the forward lines? Stay tuned.
Colorado is expected to roll the same lineup, with goaltender Alexandar Georgiev standing tall over the last two games after a rough ride in the opener.
Here’s some other information to get you set:
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MIKE SAYS: It’s hard not to notice the similarities. Last spring, the Jets took Game 1 of their first-round playoff series, then dropped games 2 and 3. Along the way, one of their players (Morgan Barron), suffered a gruesome skate cut. This spring? A Game 1 victory, defeats in games 2 and 3, and a player (Dillon) felled by a gruesome skate cut.
No doubt the Jets hope that’s where this eerie pattern ends, considering they went on to lose games 4 and 5 to the Vegas Golden Knights. We shall see.
I really wondered if the Jets might consider shaking things up by putting Laurent Brossoit in goal. Hellebuyck has been under siege, and perhaps the move would get everyone’s attention while also giving him a brief breather. It’s not as if Brossoit is a sieve, either. But Bowness poured cold water over that when I asked him Saturday.
“It’s Connor Hellebuyck’s net,” the coach stated emphatically.
I suspect the Jets are thinking bigger picture here. Hellebuyck is their guy, fresh off a regular season that should earn him a second Vezina Trophy, and he’s also got a seven-year contract extension that kicks in next season. It’s also hard to pin any specific goals on him, short of that puckhandling flub in Game 2 in Winnipeg that proved costly.
JOHN WOODS / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck
Brossoit, as solid a backup as he’s been, is going to be moving on as an unrestricted free agent.
Dance with the one that brought you, as the saying goes.
I’ve long believed this year’s team is vastly different from last year’s, even if certain events have mirrored each other, and that was based on what seemed to be an unshakable defensive foundation that gave them a chance in any game.
So far, that structure has disappeared, at least for critical stretches where they haven’t spent nearly enough time in the offensive zone and far too much time defending.
Lowry touched on that Saturday.
“I think that’s getting back to our five-on-five play. Chances off the cycle, creating chances off the forecheck and things like that,” he said. “I think in games 1 and 2 we didn’t really sustain a lot of (offensive)-zone time. The number went up (Friday) night but it’s still one of those things, we don’t want to be one and done against this team in terms of the chances we create.”
I know this group is capable of it, having seen them do it countless times throughout the season. Problem is, there’s no time in the playoffs to rest on your laurels. It’s the ultimate small sample size, and Winnipeg margin for error here is getting miniscule.
KEN SAYS: What to make of the Jets building a 2-1 cushion in each of the past two games before allowing four unanswered goals in Game 2 and five unanswered in Game 3? Well, the Avalanche have quite simply found another gear and the Jets have not.
Penalties played a key role in Game 3, with the Jets’ parade to the penalty box in the third period leading to power-play markers from Nathan MacKinnon and Valeri Nichushkin and another marker from Ross Colton that came seconds after the Pionk minor for shooting the puck over the glass in the defensive zone expired.
For those keeping track at home, the Avalanche have now scored four times with the man advantage through three games, with another essentially being a power-play goal even if it’s not counted as one on the stats sheet. Cleaning up the breakdowns on the penalty kill has been a season-long issue for the Jets and it obviously remains a work in progress.
The Jets are having trouble generating much off the rush, which means they need to do a better job of sustaining offensive zone time with cycle shifts. Josh Morrissey scored his second of the series (on the power play), but the Jets could use more offence from their defence corps if they’re able to get something going off the second wave of the attack.
The loss of Dillon creates a big hole on the back end. He’s a physical presence who is averaging just over 21 minutes through the first three games, which means Dylan Samberg is likely going to be playing a larger role here in Game 4 as he moves onto the pairing with Pionk. They’ve played together before and had some solid minutes together.
For the Avalanche, they have shown plenty of composure and resilience since dropping Game 1 by a 7-6 score and seem to be rallying around Georgiev, who allowed a softie to Tyler Toffoli on a backhand from essentially the goal line that made it 2-1 but quickly responded by robbing Toffoli with a blocker save after a nice move to the backhand on a breakaway that could have made the score 3-1 during the second period.
Georgiev has allowed 11 goals on 77 shots on goal through three games, but has responded well and kept the Jets to four goals during the past two games. The Jets need to make life more difficult on him if they are to even the series.
Getting Toffoli on the board with a goal and a secondary assist for Nikolaj Ehlers was a step forward for the trio with Sean Monahan (who had a great wraparound chance early in Game 3), but that line can still contribute more — which is the case for each of the four units up front for the Jets.
The secondary scoring has been apparent for the Avalanche throughout the first three games and was augmented by the second goal of the series from Zach Parise, who is up to five career playoff goals against the Jets including three for the Minnesota Wild in the five-game opening-round series in 2018.
It’s a new season for both of these teams, but for all of the talk about how this one is resembling the opening-round tilt between the Jets and Vegas Golden Knights, it’s also similar to Colorado’s opening-round series a year ago.
The Avalanche were up 2-1 on Seattle, however, the Kraken won Game 4 in overtime and ended up winning the series in seven games. That’s not to say that’s what is going to happen here, simply a reminder that things can change quickly in any series and that the race to four often features plenty of twists and turns.
Also worth noting and falling under the category of, ‘If you want to change the narrative, do something about it’: The Jets haven’t responded to a playoff loss with a win in a series since the qualification round matchup with the Calgary Flames in 2020. In that best-of-5, the Jets won Game 2 after dropping the opener before losing Games 3 and 4.
In 2021, the Jets swept the Edmonton Oilers before being swept by the Montreal Canadiens, then won Game 1 against the Golden Knights last spring before losing four consecutive games.
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