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“The only poll that matters is the one on election day.”
— said by various politicians and pundits for generations
To call an early election, or not call an early election? That is the question facing the first ministers in Winnipeg and in Ottawa.
The Macro
I can’t say for sure, but after a lifetime reporting on politics, I’m going to go way out on a limb and say it.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Wab Kinew are thinking long and hard about whether to call a snap election. Not calling an early election; but considering the possibilities.
My informed assumptions are largely based on current poll results.
On the strength of his handling of the trade war with the United States, and his growing international profile following a seismic speech at the World Economic Forum in January, Carney’s Liberal minority government is now the overwhelming choice of Canadians in polls on voter preference. Nanos Research, my personal gold standard for political polling, has just today released a poll showing the Liberals at 46 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing at 33 per cent and the NDP languishing in third at just 10 per cent.
If those results could be replicated in the next election — scheduled for 2029 — it would lead to a historically large majority mandate.
Prime Minister Mark Carney (Sean Kilpatrick / The Canadian Press files)
More importantly for the Liberals, Nanos found Carney has the support of 57 per cent of respondents as preferred choice to lead the country; Tory leader Pierre Poilievre trails with just 22 per cent.
When Poilievre gets 33 per cent support on party voting preference, but only 22 per cent support as the preferred choice for first minister, it means an alarming number of Tories like the Liberal guy more than they like the Tory leader. Even if these respondents will never vote for a Liberal candidate, those poll results suggest Tories may in all likelihood not show up and vote for their own guy.
Those of you who fear that poll results like that will trigger a spring federal election — take a deep breath. For now, it seems as if Carney is hoping to MacGyver a majority through defections and recently announced byelections.
On April 13, voters will go to the polls in two Toronto ridings — Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale — and one riding in suburban Montreal, Terrebonne. The first two seats were vacated by the retirements of Liberal cabinet ministers Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland, respectively. Terrebonne is back in play after a judicial recount, and a Supreme Court verdict, determined they were tied once a disputed mail-in ballot was validated.
Thanks to three defections from the Conservative party, Carney’s Liberals have 169 seats. If they win all three byelections, which is certainly possible given the aforementioned poll results, the Liberals will have 172 seats, the bare minimum for a majority. Given that the Speaker is a Liberal MP, however, the majority would be tenuous as the Speaker can only vote to break ties on matters of confidence; the Liberals would be vulnerable to defeat on votes involving legislation that would not necessarily qualify as a vote of non-confidence.
If the Liberals sweep all three byelections, will that extinguish all interest in a snap election? For now, let’s say Carney takes the byelection Ws and sits tight. At least until next year.
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And what of Manitoba and Premier Wab Kinew? In some ways, he is facing the very same temptation to call an early election.
Like the Liberals, the NDP are enjoying robust opinion poll results. In the year-end Free Press-Probe Research survey Kinew’s NDP have the support of 53 per cent of respondents, with Obby Khan’s Tories way back at 32 per cent and the leaderless Liberals at just nine per cent. In terms of preferred leader, Kinew continues to be the country’s most popular premier with a 60 per cent approval rating.
Why wouldn’t Kinew consider a snap election? The NDP government is facing a historically high $1.6-billion deficit, and continued pressures to build capacity in health care mean that party support is not invulnerable to concerns about fiscal management.
Of course, that budget deficit could also function as a motivation for an early election. With wars in Ukraine and Iran raging, oil prices surging, global markets roiling and economic growth likely to suffer, Kinew might want to go sooner than later if he thinks the budget situation will only get worse.
Carney and Kinew are both likely asking themselves, given all that is going on in the world: “Why should we call an early election?”
But given the proclivities of political leaders, that question could change to: “Why the hell not?”
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