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“An election is coming. Universal peace is declared, and the foxes have a sincere interest in prolonging the lives of the poultry.”
— British author Mary Ann Evans (a.k.a. George Eliot)
Politics and hyperbole go together like hot chocolate and marshmallows. Like peanut butter and jam. Like Donald Trump and gold-leaf wainscotting.
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The Macro
It is hard to criticize anyone involved in politics — from the candidates to the parties, leaders and even journalists — for injecting a little hyperbole into the equation. After all, as intellectually dishonest and messy as politics can be, it is also very important stuff.
And yet…
Last week, Canadian news organizations went above and well beyond actual facts to report on the last of three important votes on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget, any one of which could have brought down his Liberal government and triggered a holiday season election.
It was going to be close, or so circumstances suggested.
A Tory MP abandoned his party and crossed the floor to join the Liberal government. Another Tory announced he was leaving politics altogether in the spring, triggering concern he, too, could cross the floor. The Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois and NDP — who together had enough MPs to bring down the budget and government — would not confirm they were doing anything formal to support Carney’s budget.
When it came down to the actual vote on Nov. 17, the budget passed 170 to 168 with one Tory traitor and Green Party MP Elizabeth May voting in favor, and four abstentions — two Tories and two New Democrats.
Cue the melodramatic headlines.
“Minority Liberals narrowly survive high-stakes confidence vote, fending off holiday election,” trumpeted CTV News.
“Liberals survive crucial confidence vote on budget in win for Carney,” echoed Global News.
“Liberals escape another confidence vote, as opposition complains their methods are ‘not sustainable,’” thundered the judgmental National Post.
It all made for good theatre, but somewhat suspect journalism.
Experienced national political reporters had been dubious about the opposition’s appetite for a winter election and on the night of the fateful vote, there was more than enough evidence that no election was in the offing.
Perhaps the most obvious sign was the absence of Tory House Leader Andrew Scheer and Tory MP Scott Reid scurrying into the house after all the votes had been counted. Both asked for special dispensation, claiming they had trouble with the voting apps on their phones — the preferred method of voting nowadays.
In fact, both MPs needed to wait to see that two NDP MPs had abstained and that May had supported the budget. After that, Scheer and Reid were free to vote “nay” on the budget.
Put it all together and you could see the fix was in and most of the experienced political journalists and their organizations knew it. Which raises a final question: why wouldn’t the opposition have triggered an election?
Let me count the ways.
National poll results show Carney’s Liberals continue to enjoy more support than any other party. More importantly, Carney has solid personal approval ratings while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre does not, outside the core of his party.
After losing an MP to the Liberals and another to resignation, the Tories are wounded ducks. When you add in Poilievre’s impending leadership review in January, and growing discontent about his performance, you have an official opposition that would rather be trapped in a DEI seminar than fight another election so soon.
Same goes for the NDP. Leaderless and somewhat lacking in purpose, the last thing the New Democrats want is to face voters again.
The only party spoiling for a vote is the Bloc Quebecois, but only because the separatists are, by their very genuine nature, always looking for a scrap.
But all that is less effective at suppressing electoral lust than the lack of money available to wage a new campaign battle.
Third-quarter fundraising results show both the Liberals and Conservatives are raising considerably less money now than they did the year before. With inflation uncertainty, and a hard-fought spring election still fresh in everyone’s minds, donors are not showing much of an appetite to go again this soon.
As of the end of September, the Conservatives had raised only $4.2 million in the previous three months, the Canadian Press reported. That is less than half of what the Tories collected in the same quarter the year before.
The Liberals are facing similar fundraising challenges. In Q3 of this year, the Grits scrounged $2.9 million in new donations from supporters no doubt feeling the pinch after they injected more than $13 million to Liberal coffers in Q1 for a spring election and a leadership race prior to that.
No money. No will to go back to the polls. No time given other more pressing internal battles. There was no chance in hell we were going to have another election, and most of the people charged with following federal politics knew it.
On the other hand, it was a glorious time for headline writers.
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