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Game 5: St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets

How big is tonight’s clash between the Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues? According to the NHL, the team that wins Game 5 of a best of seven that is deadlocked 2-2 goes on to win the series 79.2 per cent of the time.

Yeah, it’s pretty huge. Just don’t necessarily tell that to the players who likely don’t want to add to the pressure they’re already facing by looking at the ramifications.

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“Well, it’s a big game in the sense of whoever wins it’s a 3-2 advantage and gets a chance to close the series in Game 6. That’s exactly what it is,” said Jets defenceman Dylan DeMelo.

“If you want to make more or less of it, I guess that’s whoever wants to have that opinion. For us, we’re just trying to go out there and win Game 5 and be the best version of ourselves we can be on the ice and see what happens. It’s just a big game and whoever gets the game gets the series lead. It just means you have a bit of a head start.”

Home teams have held serve so far and the Jets will no doubt be hoping that trend continues. The Jets took the first two games by scores of 5-3 and 2-1, then got blown out in the Blues’ barn 7-2 and 5-1.

“That’s just home-ice advantage. That’s what we played those 82 games for,” said Jets coach Scott Arniel.

“And so I expect our Whiteout to be just as loud as it was in 1 and 2. And if it’s a little extra lift and a little extra push that drives us towards that victory, that’s what we’re after.”

Winnipeg Jets' Vladislav Namestnikov (7) skates with the puck as St. Louis Blues' Tyler Tucker, right, defends during the first period of Game 4 on Sunday in St. Louis. (Connor Hamilton / The Associated Press files)

Winnipeg Jets’ Vladislav Namestnikov (7) skates with the puck as St. Louis Blues’ Tyler Tucker, right, defends during the first period of Game 4 on Sunday in St. Louis. (Connor Hamilton / The Associated Press files)

Winnipeg will make two lineup changes.

Forward Gabe Vilardi returns from a 15-game injury absence and jumps right back on to the top line with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, along with the top power play unit.

David Gustafsson comes out in his place. On the blue-line, Logan Stanley returns after being a healthy scratch in Game 4, replacing Haydn Fleury.

“It’s the best two out of three and we have home-ice advantage. I like our chances,” said forward Cole Perfetti.

“We’re obviously an amazing team and we proved that all year in the regular season. The first two games at home we were good and they were good in their building. It’s obviously a massive game tonight. We’re fully confident in our abilities.”

St. Louis will make one change as defenceman Tyler Tucker — who scored the winning goal in Game 4 — comes out after suffering a lower-body injury. Ryan Suter, a healthy scratch in Games 2 and 3, is back in the lineup.

How big of a deal will the matchup game be, with the Jets once again having last change?

“I’ve always said this — players win games,” Blues coach Jim Montgomery told reporters this morning.

“Coaches give a game plan and players go out and win games. I do think, for the most part, you guys do make too much of the matchups and the X’s and O’s and adjustments. We’re not as important as you think we are.”

 

—Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe

 

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FROM THE PRESS BOX

MIKE SAYS: Would it be hyperbole to suggest this might just be a franchise-altering game?

Perhaps, but it sure feels seismic considering the ghosts of playoffs past and the potential fallout that might occur with another one-and-done post-season appearance — especially since they just won the Presidents’ Trophy.

Obviously, you need four wins to advance in a series, but being the first to hit three seems significant for a Jets team that feels fairly fragile right now.

Is there a player facing more scrutiny tonight than Connor Hellebuyck?

The five-time Vezina Trophy nominee, who is going to be a third-time winner of the best goaltender award, has not looked anything like himself over the past two games.

No question the Jets need to be better in front of him, especially when it comes to allowing him to see pucks.

But Hellebuyck also needs to rise to the occasion, something he’s struggled with not only during these playoffs, but the past two springs as well. Now would be the ideal time for a dominant performance.

Winnipeg Jets' Connor Hellebuyck (37) and Vladislav Namestnikov (7) defend the net against St. Louis Blues' Jake Neighbours (63) during the second period in Game 4 on Sunday. (Connor Hamilton / The Associated Press files)

Winnipeg Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck (37) and Vladislav Namestnikov (7) defend the net against St. Louis Blues’ Jake Neighbours (63) during the second period in Game 4 on Sunday. (Connor Hamilton / The Associated Press files)

There’s no question this Jets-Blues schedule has been unique.

They played two games in three days, followed now by two games over the past eight. Both of those were losses by Winnipeg, of course, and I wonder if all that extra time to stew about what went wrong might help — or hurt — the overall cause?

“I’m actually OK with it,” Arniel told me.

“There’s some things we got to work on, some things we got to look at. But now it’s every other night, it’s go time. It’s the next game that’s the most important one, and tonight we’re going to take it from there.”

Vilardi said yesterday he hopes to make a big impact but cautioned that he’s “not Superman.”

Still, his return comes just in the nick of time for a group that can use all the help it can get, particularly on a power play that is just 2-for-12 so far. Vilardi’s net-front presence can be a game-changer.

Winnipeg has scored just five times in the last three games and the team has yet to get a five-on-five goal from either the second or third line this series, which will both have slightly different looks because of Vilardi’s return.

Some secondary production is desperately needed.

“Absolutely. Obviously, you want to get on the board and you can’t just rely on the top group to score goals,” said forward Nino Niederreiter. “That’s something which we know we’ve got to make sure that we get more to the inside and find a way to contribute.”


 

KEN SAYS: The moment of truth has arrived for the Jets.

They’ve spent all season building a solid foundation that allowed them to produce the best record in the NHL to prepare them for when the lights are shining brightest.

After winning the first two games of the series, the Blues not only evened things up by answering with a pair of wins on home ice, they did so in decisive fashion, outscoring the Jets 12-3 and chasing Hellebuyck in consecutive starts.

After the third two-day break of the series, the Jets have said all the right things going into the contest, and now they’ll need to back up those words with action.

Hellebuyck isn’t the only player under the microscope here, though he needs to elevate his game.

I was travelling home from St. Louis when Hellebuyck spoke to reporters on Monday, but he showed accountability and made it clear he would be better.

That’s a great sign of leadership from the guy his teammates have referred to as the backbone of this team for numerous seasons.

Another thing to look for is a signature moment from Jets defenceman Josh Morrissey.

The minute-muncher was excellent in Game 2, chipping in a pair of assists in the 2-1 victory, but he has been a play driver all season long and he’s the kind of guy who can make things happen offensively while also limiting the damage defensively.

The Blues have been laying the body on Morrissey whenever possible, but look for a breakthrough game from the Jets’ alternate captain in this one.

The reunion of Niederreiter, Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton could be a big development here as well, as the trio served as the Jets’ identity line for the bulk of the campaign.

With the middle-six needing to get going offensively, this is a line that could help keep the opposition off the board but also supply a timely goal or several at a time the middle-six forwards have been limited to Lowry’s empty-netter in Game 1.

The Blues have done an excellent job of adding offence from the defence corps during the past two games, with Cam Fowler producing six of his eight points in the series in that span.

Morrissey’s 4 Nations Face-Off D partner Colton Parayko had two outstanding showings as well on the Blues’ top pairing with Fowler, doing a great job of keeping Scheifele and Connor off the board while adding a goal and two helpers himself.

Both of these teams know what is at stake and will be prepared after the third and final two-day break of this series.

Look no further than Game 5 in 2019 to see how pivotal this game can be in determining the winner.

From Jets centre Kevin Hayes thinking he had put the Jets up 3-0 before knocking a puck wide that was heading into the net as he was tackled by Parayko on a partial breakaway, to Blues Tyler Bozak finding Jaden Schwartz with 15 seconds to go in regulation for the backbreaking goal that broke the 2-2 tie, you can bet this game will feature plenty of drama as both teams look to get a leg up.

 

PROJECTED LINES

WINNIPEG JETS

FORWARDS:

  • Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi
  • Iafallo-Namestnikov-Perfetti
  • Niederreiter-Lowry-Appleton
  • Tanev-Barron-Anderson-Dolan

DEFENCE:

  • Morrissey-DeMelo
  • Samberg-Pionk
  • Stanley-Schenn

GOAL:

  • Hellebuyck
  • Comrie

HEALTHY SCRATCHES: G Driedger, D Miller, D Fleury, D Heinola, C Gustafsson, C Kupari, C Toninato

INJURED: LW Ehlers (lower body)


ST. LOUIS BLUES

FORWARDS:

  • Buchnevich-Thomas-Snuggerud
  • Neighbours-Schenn-Kyrou
  • Texier-Sundqvist-Bolduc
  • Toropchenko-Faksa-Walker

DEFENCE:

  • Fowler-Parayko
  • Broberg-Faulk
  • Leddy-Suter

GOAL:

  • Binnington
  • Hofer

HEALTHY SCRATCHES: D Kessel, F Joseph

INJURED: D Krug (ankle), LW Holloway (lower body), Tucker (lower body)

 

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

Jets head coach Scott Arniel on how the Blues created some space in the offensive zone in Game 3:

“They did a good job of trying to spread us out. For us, when we do a good job with our defending, we don’t let teams get away and get to the good ice, or get to the high ice. We do a good job of containing and pushing them back to the corners. I thought we were spread out quite a bit. We were loose with our coverage. It had a lot to do with, again, we were slow to close and allowed them the ice to either send the puck over there or they skated it over there.”

WHAT WE’RE WORKING ON

Ken has an early notebook coming along with a post-game analysis piece, while Mike will handle the game story. You can find the pieces online at winnipegfreepress.com.

 

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