|
“You will never find justice in a world where criminals make the rules.”
— Bob Marley
Is the defeat of far-right authoritarian Viktor Orbán the beginning of the end of right-wing populism?
Advertisement
THE MACRO
The news on Sunday that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had been defeated in a general election was not surprising; pundits had been predicting that a significant shift in voting intentions was threatening his 16-year rule. What is surprising is that some of the claims being made about its impact on other countries, primarily the United States.
Orbán is credited with being a forerunner to the rise of contemporary far-right, authoritarian-adjacent politics in Europe and other continents. Certainly, he was warmly embraced by dictator-wannabes like U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice-President J.D. Vance, the latter of whom made a last-ditch trip to Hungary to bolster Orbán’s electoral fortunes.
Now that Orbán is gone, the pundits and analysts are trying to figure out what it all means.
Is this the beginning of the end of far-right populist nationalism that has spread around the world since the worst years of the pandemic? Is Orbán’s loss a warning to Trump and the MAGA movement as we approach mid-term elections this year, and a presidential election two years after that?
Defeated Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (Markus Schreiber / The Associated Press files)
When you look more closely at Orbán’s time in power and style of governing, there are some parallels and some aspects of contrast.
Orbán’s style of leadership was often called “soft-authoritarianism,” although those who found themselves on the wrong side of his policies might beg to differ. Like Trump, Orbán targeted immigrants, the LGBTTQ+ community and women’s rights. And as has been the case in the U.S., Orbán’s policies led to an alarming rise in activity among neo-Nazi groups in Hungary.
There was also corruption. Lots and lots of corruption.
Hungary was routinely ranked as the poorest and most corrupt nation in Europe. Orbán funneled billions of state Euros to loyal oligarch families. Fraud and theft took place in companies that received European Union funds. Images of his $50-million private residence, complete with zebras roaming the front lawn, sparked concern that, while many in the country could not feed themselves, he was stealing to increase his own wealth.
It’s not a stretch to look at Trump’s own corruption and hubris and see some parallels. Trump and his family have made billions of dollars trading access to the White House and pursuing business opportunities with the weight of the presidency as a key negotiating point. And while he already owned gaudy private residences prior to becoming president, his recasting of the White House in gold plating and the palatial new presidential ballroom do express an Orbán-like excess.
Finally, Orbán also engaged in a fair bit of electoral manipulation through gerrymandering and subtle changes to the rules for elections. Just like Trump is trying to do right now.
So, looking at all that, does Orbán’s fall from power give us a glimpse into Trump’s future? Perhaps, although rather than a harbinger of Trump’s implosion, the election in Hungary could serve more as a cautionary tale to MAGA operatives, encouraging them to step up their attempts to rig upcoming elections through restrictions on who can vote, and how they vote.
Although he tilted the field quite a bit in his own favour, Orbán never quite got a stranglehold on elections the way other authoritarian rulers have. Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, who remains in power through a systematic and centralized corruption of voting.
In fact, if you want to know the single most important lesson coming out of Hungary’s elections, it is that voters — if they show up — always get the final say on the style and substance of government.
Early reports peg total voter turnout in the Hungarian election at 77 per cent, the strongest turnout in Hungary’s post-Communist era. Without that kind of turnout, it would have been unlikely that Orbán would have been ousted.
Americans concerned about Trump, gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics should remember this in November, and again in two years’ time.
|
