FROM THE PRESS BOX
MIKE SAYS: Operation “Save The Road Trip” begins in earnest tonight and you better believe the Jets are happy to be out of California.
With a bit of time on my hands, I’m on holidays this week while Kenny is covering the club, I did a little checking under the hood to see what the underlying numbers are showing.
Spoiler: The Jets are getting what they deserve and, quite frankly, are fortunate to even have the record they do.
Consider this: Despite the fact they are tied for eighth in the NHL in point percentage, here’s where they rank in the following advanced statistical categories according to Natural Stat Trick:
*Corsi For Percentage (what % of the overall shot attempt share a team has in its games): 29th at 45.40% (Carolina is No. 1 at 57.65%)*Shot For Percentage (what % of the overall shots on goal a team has in its games): 25th at 47.87% (Colorado is No. 1 at 57.08%)*Expected Goals For Percentage (what % of the overall expected goals a team has scored in its games): 29th at 47.09% (Colorado is No. 1 at 58.21%)*Scoring Chance For Percentage (what % of the overall scoring chances a team has in its games): 30th at 45.86% (Colorado is No. 1 at 57.63%)
The above numbers are actually worse for the Jets if you just look at even strength play. They are 30th in Corsi For Percentage, 30th in Shot For Percentage, 31st in Expected Goal Percentage and 32nd in Scoring Chance For Percentage.
Yikes.
So how exactly are they 9-6-0? Having the second-best save percentage in the NHL (91.16%, trailing only Chicago who are 92.06%) is a huge part of the story. And having slightly above-average special teams is really the other.
Bottom line: The Jets are going to have to vastly improve some or all of the above metrics or they are in for plenty of three (or more) game losing streaks this season. Let’s see if they can start taking some strides in the right direction tonight.
KEN SAYS: Math isn’t always my strong suit, but in order to try and salvage a .500 record on this road trip, the Jets will need to put together another three-game winning streak.
You can’t erase the past three games with one strong effort, but that’s all the Jets will be looking to do here.
Put one win in their back pocket and then try to stack another on Thursday in Seattle against the Kraken, who blanked the Jets in Winnipeg last month.
Probably the most concerning thing to come out of the last three games for the Jets is that they’ve been piling up the self-inflicted wounds that they’ve so often forced upon their opponents during the past several seasons.
The Jets’ top line has carried them in many games throughout the first quarter of this season, but they were outscored 2-1 at even-strength on Sunday and they’ll be looking for a bounce-back effort.
Forward Cole Perfetti had nearly 18 minutes of ice time in his return to the Jets’ lineup and while there was some rust to shake off after missing the first 14 games of the season, he had a Grade A scoring chance to go along with six shot attempts.
Perfetti and Joanthan Toews showed some early signs of chemistry and with more reps, that should continue to grow.
For the Canucks, I’ll be keeping a close eye on Brock Boeser, who was believed to be one of the top free agent targets for the Jets but ended up signing a new deal with Vancouver on July 1.
Boeser, who played at the University of North Dakota, is someone the Jets would have envisioned playing on the second line with Toews (a fellow UND alum) and Perfetti.
Boeser is off to a steady start to the season, with seven goals and 11 points, which leaves him tied for second in team scoring with Sherwood and top-line centre Elias Pettersson.
PROJECTED LINES
WINNIPEG JETS
FORWARDS:Connor-Scheifele-VilardiNamestnikov-Toews-PerfettiNiederreiter-Lowry-IafalloPearson-Ford-Chibrikov
DEFENCE:Morrissey-DeMeloStanley-PionkFleury-Schenn
GOAL:HellebuyckComrie
INJURED: D Samberg (wrist), F Barron (mid-body), F Nyquist (lower body), F Koepke (undisclosed)
HEALTHY SCRATCHES: D Miller, F Lambert
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
FORWARDS:Kane-E. Pettersson-GarlandBoeser-Reichel-SherwoodO’Connor-Raty-DeBruskBains-Sasson-Karlsson
DEFENCE:
Hughes-HronekM. Pettersson-MyersElias Pettersson-Willander
GOAL:DemkoLankinen
INJURED: D Forbort (undisclosed), D Mancini (upper body), D Brisebois (lower body), C Chytil (upper body), C Blueger (undisclosed), RW Lekkerimaki (undisclosed), LW Hoglander (lower body).
HEALTHY SCRATCHES: G Patera, D Joseph, LW MacEachern
NOTABLE QUOTABLE
Jets head coach Scott Arniel on what his team is generating offensively during the past three games, where they’ve been held to two goals:
“Actually, our numbers offensively, we’re getting opportunities, we’re just not putting the puck in the net. We knew that sooner or later, (Mark Scheifele’s) line carries a lot of our offence — and they have been early on — but we need some other people to step up. In the Chicago, Pittsburgh games, we were getting it (offence) throughout (the lineup). A couple of the other guys stepped in and now we need that.”
WHAT WE’RE WORKING ON
After taking in the Hockey Hall of Fame festivities honouring Winnipegger Jennifer Botterill, among others, Ken arrived in Vancouver and will provide analysis from the final three games of the road trip in Vancouver, Seattle and Calgary. He will have an early story on the recent slide. With the late start, you can find the piece online at winnipegfreepress.com.
Plus, a friendly reminder that the Jets monthly mailbag for November is open, so send your questions to Mike and Ken at your convenience either by email or on social media.
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