Turbulent political weather expected across province Free Press prognostication panel’s long-range fall election forecast calls for unsettled conditions with slight chance of NDP majority, gusty Tory headwinds in Winnipeg, early freeze for Liberals By: Dan Lett Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Monday, Apr. 24, 2023

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This article was published 24/04/2023 (915 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Most experienced journalists, pollsters and pundits know that trying to handicap the outcome of an election months in advance of voters going to the polls is a suicide mission. The chances of predicting the right result are slim; the potential for damage to personal reputations is, however, nearly limitless.

Undaunted by a risk-reward equation that skews heavily towards risk, the Free Press assembled a panel of notable experts to look at the upcoming provincial election on a riding-by-riding basis. It was our hope that, breaking down the election battle into its smallest constituent elements, we’d be able to forecast potential scenarios come Oct. 3, the latest date that Premier Heather Stefanson can wait to hold a vote.

The panel — which convened as part of a special episode of the Niigaan & the Lone Ranger podcast — included FP columnist and podcast co-host Niigaan Sinclair, Christoper Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba and Curtis Brown, a principal at Probe Research, the pollster partner of the Free Press.

Oh, and me.

Our broad findings include the following:

• The panelists were asked to predict results for all 57 ridings. The panel picked 20 sure-bet wins for the NDP, 20 for the Tories and three for the Liberals.
• The panel agreed the NDP would continue to dominate the far north of both the province and Winnipeg, along with its central city ridings; the Tories would be strong in southwest Winnipeg and southeast and southwest Manitoba. No one felt the Liberals were going to add to their three seats in River Heights, Tyndall Park and St. Boniface.
• That left 14 seats as toss-ups, the ridings that will ultimately determine the next election. Toss-ups were defined as seats where at least three of the four pundits thought the result was in doubt.
• To form a majority, one party must win 29 seats. Using the panel’s predictions of slam-dunk wins for each party, it means the NDP must win nine of the 14 seats in question to secure a majority mandate.

Put it all together and a slim NDP majority is still possible. But it’s going to be a real uphill battle.

The one true positive the NDP has going for it is that its strength is in Winnipeg, which accounts for 10 of those 14 seats.

Winnipeg is ground zero for voter anxiety over surgical, diagnostic and emergency medicine wait lists. In the politest possible terms, the Tories appear to be effectively uncompetitive in many of the city ridings they simply must win to stave off an NDP landslide.

In the last Free Press-Probe poll, the NDP led provincewide by 44 per cent to 38 per cent, which is a pretty impressive result when the huge concentrated support the Tories enjoy in rural ridings is factored into the equation.

In Winnipeg, however, it’s not much of a horse race at this point. The Probe poll in March showed the NDP out in front 53 per cent to 30 per cent, a result that gives the current official Opposition more than a fighting chance to claim the vast majority of the uncertain city-based seats.

OK, but you’re probably wondering how it’s all going to shake down after the panelists were forced — and yes, forced was the right term — to provide their overall election predictions.

The results either reinforce the idea that all four of us are eminently qualified and are reading the tea leaves more or less the same way. Or, that we’re all cowards.

Three of the panelists (Adams, Brown and Lett) predicted a slim NDP majority of 29 or 30 seats. Sinclair was the outlier, but not by much; he predicted 28 seats for the NDP.

What that all means is that a rumoured NDP landslide is likely not in the cards in the fall. At least, not in this panel’s judgment.

There are a couple of cautionary notes from the 2016 election, the last time an opposition party (Progressive Conservatives) upended a governing party (NDP).

There are a couple of cautionary notes from the 2016 election, the last time an opposition party (Progressive Conservatives) upended a governing party (NDP).

Pre-election poll results left little doubt the Tories would win. The question was, by how much?

In Free Press-Probe pre-election polls in 2016, Brian Pallister’s Tories had a 20-point lead provincewide (59 per cent to 39 per cent), but only a slight edge (38 per cent to 34 per cent) in Winnipeg. Seat projections by ThreeHundredEight.com, which used Probe data along with other pollsters, predicted the Tories would win 43 seats, the NDP nine and the Liberals five.

When the smoke cleared, however, the Tories won 40 seats, the NDP 14 and the Liberals just three. A landslide, but less than seat projections suggested.

What does that tell us about this year’s election?

Unless the NDP makes some horrendous mistakes, the party should win some sort of mandate. But a majority will require NDP Leader Wab Kinew to run the table in Winnipeg toss-up seats.

There’s one more prediction the panel, in general, seemed to embrace.

Given all the factors at work right now, you can be assured of one thing: this is going to be a nail-biter of an election right down to the wire.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.