Queue up the World Cup ‘winner’s curse’ All signs point to Argentina joining list of defending champs crashing out in group play

In 2010, four years after ascending the podium in Berlin, Italy fell flat on its face in Mbombela, South Africa.

Read this article for free:


or

Already have an account? Log in here »

To continue reading, please subscribe:

Subscribe and receive a limited-edition Free Press branded hat or tote.

Digital Subscription

One year of digital access for only $205*

  • Enjoy unlimited reading on winnipegfreepress.com
  • Read the E-Edition, our digital replica newspaper
  • Access News Break, our award-winning app
  • Play interactive puzzles

*First annual payment billed as $205.00 + GST for one year. This annual subscription will automatically renew at $233.00 + GST every 52 weeks (10% off the regular annual price of $259.35). Offer available to new and qualified returning subscribers only. Cancel any time.

To continue reading, please subscribe:

Add Free Press access to your Brandon Sun subscription for only an additional

$1 for the first 4 weeks*

  • Enjoy unlimited reading on winnipegfreepress.com
  • Read the E-Edition, our digital replica newspaper
  • Access News Break, our award-winning app
  • Play interactive puzzles
Start now

*Your next Brandon Sun subscription payment will increase by $1.00 and you will be charged $17.95 plus GST for four weeks. After four weeks, your payment will increase to $24.95 plus GST every four weeks.

In 2010, four years after ascending the podium in Berlin, Italy fell flat on its face in Mbombela, South Africa.

Six days earlier, it had drawn Paraguay 1-1 to open its title defence. Not ideal; but not a disaster, either. It was only after the Azzurri was forced to come from behind to take a point off New Zealand that something seemed awry.

Michael Sohn / The Associated Press Files
Italy's Francesco Totti lifts the World Cup trophy after defeating France in 2006. The Italians would fail to defend their title in 2010.
Michael Sohn / The Associated Press Files

Italy's Francesco Totti lifts the World Cup trophy after defeating France in 2006. The Italians would fail to defend their title in 2010.

A 3-2 defeat to Slovakia in Johannesburg sealed the reigning champion’s last-place finish in Group F. Italy would also fail to come out of its group in 2014 — its last World Cup appearance.

It’s an extreme example, but it underlines the folktale of the “winner’s curse.” Argentina, champion in 2022, will surely be aware of it and preparing whatever charms, spells and strategic tweaks it has at its disposal to break the hex in 2026.

None of it may matter. If anything, the Albiceleste is uniquely vulnerable.

Back at that 2014 tournament, where Italy lost to both Costa Rica and Uruguay, World Cup holders Spain defended the trophy for exactly two matches — a span of five days — before bowing out at the group stage.

In the post-mortem, midfielder Xabi Alonso told reporters that he and his teammates had been mentally and physically unprepared to go back-to-back.

“We weren’t able to maintain the same ambition and hunger, that real conviction that we were going to go for the title,” he said.

“We weren’t able to maintain the same ambition and hunger, that real conviction that we were going to go for the title.”

Alonso had been 28 years old when Spain beat the Netherlands 1-0 to win the World Cup in South Africa. He was now 32. Midfield partner Xavi was 34, and playmaker Andrés Iniesta was 30.

The trio had been fundamental to the intricate tiki-taka that dominated the ball in 2010; now they couldn’t keep it.

Besides, the game had changed.

Four years is a long time in football — not only when it comes to players’ ages but also the sport’s stylistic trends.

By the 2014 event in Brazil, a less-predictable dynamism had replaced the perfected passing template of the Spanish.

That 1-0 win in the 2010 final was overturned on matchday one when the Netherlands ripped their rivals apart, romping to a 5-1 triumph.

Germany wound up champion in 2014, but after rejoicing in Rio it came apart in Kazan, Russia. Just like Italy and Spain, Die Mannschaft had not been able to maintain a grip on the World Cup beyond its group.

A four-time winner, it hasn’t played a knockout match since Mario Götze netted the Cup winner at the Maracanã.

Natacha Pisarenko / The Associated Press Files
Germany celebrates its World Cup victory over Argentina in 2014.
Natacha Pisarenko / The Associated Press Files

Germany celebrates its World Cup victory over Argentina in 2014.

Carlos Alberto Parreira, who managed the Brazil team that won the 1994 World Cup, thinks the competition is all but impossible to win twice on the bounce.

That previous victory — a monumental achievement, both sporting and cultural — inevitably informs the follow-up team, and to its detriment.

“Once you win the World Cup and go for the next one, believe me, it’s different,” he told The Guardian in the days leading up to the 2022 final in Qatar.

“You keep good players, you keep the name of the country, you have the history behind you, but in the moment you lack something.”

Argentina went on to win that final match, beating France on penalties after a thrilling 3-3 draw at Lusail Stadium.

As a result, it enters the upcoming competition in Canada, Mexico and the United States as reigning champion, and quite at risk of mimicking the most accursed returning winner of them all.

Martin Meissner / The Associated Press Files
Argentina's Lionel Messi celebrates with the trophy in front of fans after winning the World Cup final in 2022.
Martin Meissner / The Associated Press Files

Argentina's Lionel Messi celebrates with the trophy in front of fans after winning the World Cup final in 2022.

Having hoisted the World Cup on home soil in 1998, France kicked off its 2002 campaign with a team that included seven of the starting 11 from the final at Saint-Denis. The entire backline was the same, as was two-thirds of the central midfield. Crucially, Zinedine Zidane was absent through injury.

Les Bleus proceeded to lose its Group A opener to Senegal, and after a scoreless draw with Uruguay it was eliminated by Denmark, despite Zidane’s comeback.

World Cup winners only four years prior, France followed up its victory by failing to score a single goal in Korea-Japan.

Charlie Riedel / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
                                Argentina superstar Lionel Messi is nursing injuries heading into the World Cup.

Charlie Riedel / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Argentina superstar Lionel Messi is nursing injuries heading into the World Cup.

Saturday, Argentina will take on Honduras in a friendly at Kyle Field, home to Texas A&M. The match will be its first since the end of March, when it beat Zambia 5-0.

Unsurprisingly, its starting line-up to face Chipolopolo featured nine of the 11 players who’d begun the 2022 final against France.

All told, more than a third of Argentina’s squad for 2026 is 30 or older, and Lionel Messi will turn 39 in the days between Group J encounters with Austria and Jordan.

Not unlike France in 2002, the South Americans are also about to commence a World Cup schedule with significant fitness issues.

Messi, for one, has been training independently of his teammates as he nurses a tight hamstring. Goalkeeper Emi Martinez has a broken finger. Right-backs Nahuel Molina and Gonzalo Montiel are managing muscle injuries, and defender Cristian Romero has a knee sprain.

Midfielder Nico Paz, who was supposed to represent an up-and-coming generation of Argentine internationals, is seeing a specialist as he tries to speed recovery from a knee injury of his own.

This is not the preparation of the future World Cup winner. If anything, it’s a hospital for treating the last one.

Gustavo Garello / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS FILES
                                World Cup “winner’s curse” or not, Argentina’s manager Lionel Scaloni was never going to omit the team’s big names from four years ago.

Gustavo Garello / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS FILES

World Cup “winner’s curse” or not, Argentina’s manager Lionel Scaloni was never going to omit the team’s big names from four years ago.

Argentina — perhaps more than any other team at this tournament — will be glad for the expansion to 48 participants and dilution of group stage quality. Even so, it’s hard to see it progressing much beyond the round of 32.

And yet, you can hardly blame it for the decisions it’s taken.

Manager Lionel Scaloni was never going to omit Messi, Martinez, Molina, Romero, Rodrigo de Paul, Nicolás Otamendi and all the other figures from four years ago.

Perhaps the World Cup winner’s curse is less a matter of bad magic than inevitability.

winnipegfreepress.com/jerradpeters

Jerrad Peters

Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber.

Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.

Report Error Submit a Tip

More Stories

Dozens of Uber, Lyft drivers switched to cheaper insurance coverage: MPI probe

Erik Pindera 5 minute read Preview

Dozens of Uber, Lyft drivers switched to cheaper insurance coverage: MPI probe

Erik Pindera 5 minute read Updated: Yesterday at 6:09 PM CDT

Ride-service drivers have been defrauding Manitoba Public Insurance by improperly insuring their vehicles as for personal use.

The public insurer and the City of Winnipeg, which regulates ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft, discovered the widespread fraud after MPI conducted a review in December last year.

“When a driver changes their coverage from ride-share insurance to a personal vehicle coverage and continues to operate as a ride-share driver, that is fraud, plain and simple,” said MPI chief executive officer Satvir Jatana at a news conference Thursday.

MPI’s review looked at a random sample of 408 ride-hailing vehicles and found 108 were operating without the proper vehicle-for-hire insurance coverage. In order to register with the city as a ride-service driver, a vehicle must have such insurance and proof must be provided to the ride-booking company.

Read
Updated: Yesterday at 6:09 PM CDT

Winnipeg more than its worst headlines

Marwa Suraj 4 minute read 2:00 AM CDT

Winnipeg takes a reputational beating sometimes and some of the criticism is deserved.

Concerns about public safety are real. Homelessness remains painfully visible. Too many people are struggling with addiction, poverty, mental illness and inadequate housing in plain sight.

Those concerns deserve to be taken seriously. But a city can be making measurable progress, struggling badly in other areas and still be reduced unfairly to its worst headlines. Winnipeg deserves neither denial nor caricature.

Take public safety.

Ladies and gentlemen of voting age, please turn your attention to the centre ring…

Dan Lett 5 minute read Preview

Ladies and gentlemen of voting age, please turn your attention to the centre ring…

Dan Lett 5 minute read Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026

If there’s one thing that we in the news business wish for any election, it’s that the campaign is competitive and voters have multiple, viable options when it comes time to cast their ballots.

That is certainly what I wished for in this year’s Winnipeg mayoral election: a ballot with two or more competent candidates — including incumbent Scott Gillingham — that offered contrasting visions for the future of the city.

Unfortunately, this time we didn’t get competent or viable. Instead, we got a clown show stuffed with candidates for mayor who have demonstrated a stunning capacity for self-inflicted wounds.

It all started when mayoral candidates Kevin Klein and Mike Vogiatzakis both alleged they had been asked by each other’s campaign to step down to give the remaining candidate a better shot at defeating Gillingham.

Read
Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026

Fraser Institute report places Manitoba near bottom of all provinces, states in productivity, income advancement

Gabrielle Piché 5 minute read Preview

Fraser Institute report places Manitoba near bottom of all provinces, states in productivity, income advancement

Gabrielle Piché 5 minute read Yesterday at 8:01 PM CDT

Manitoba trails behind most Canadian provinces and American states in economic well-being, according to a new study.

The Fraser Institute, a right-leaning think tank, compared provinces’ and U.S. states’ GDP per person, among other economic measures, in a report released Thursday.

It places Manitoba 56th of 60 jurisdictions. Most provinces and every state except Mississippi had a higher GDP per person in 2024 than Manitoba, the Fraser Institute calculated.

It used data from Statistics Canada and the United States Census Bureau.

Read
Yesterday at 8:01 PM CDT

PCs renew calls for CFS inquiry

Carol Sanders 6 minute read Preview

PCs renew calls for CFS inquiry

Carol Sanders 6 minute read Updated: Yesterday at 7:54 PM CDT

The Progressive Conservatives renewed calls to put Manitoba’s child and welfare system under the microscope Thursday, tabling a motion that urged the province to appoint a commissioner to lead a public inquiry.

Families critic Jodie Byram’s opposition day motion, which was ultimately defeated by the NDP majority, reiterated demands for an inquiry into the systemic failures of Child and Family Services, more than 20 years after the death of Phoenix Sinclair first prompted demands for answers.

“We have seen far too many children die under the care of CFS, and we need to determine where the gaps are in the system in order to make the system a safer place for children,” Byram told reporters before the motion was defeated in the legislature.

Families Minister Nahanni Fontaine said in an interview that her department, CFS agencies and authorities are “doing good work” and won’t call an inquiry.

Read
Updated: Yesterday at 7:54 PM CDT

Release police HQ report: Klein

Joyanne Pursaga 5 minute read Preview

Release police HQ report: Klein

Joyanne Pursaga 5 minute read Yesterday at 8:49 PM CDT

Mayoral candidate Kevin Klein is lobbying the province to release the final report from the public inquiry into the Winnipeg Police Service headquarters before the upcoming municipal election.

Klein wrote to the provincial government to request that the information be shared promptly and before Winnipeg voters go to the polls on Oct. 28.

A Thursday CBC report stated the document is finished, “has been sent to the printer” and submitted to the province but isn’t expected to be publicly released until after Winnipeg’s Oct. 28 municipal election.

“It’s all about accountability. The report is done. People have waited (many) years,” said Klein.

Read
Yesterday at 8:49 PM CDT