Picking their political spots PCs, NDP waging war for control of the legislature in a small number of constituencies By: Carol Sanders and Danielle Da Silva Posted: 8:24 PM CDT Friday, Sep. 22, 2023 Last Modified: 11:46 PM CDT Saturday, Sep. 23, 2023 Updates

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In a province as vast as Manitoba, political parties vying for power could be expected to cover as much ground as possible during a short, four-week campaign leading to the Oct. 3 general election.

However, of the 57 electoral divisions up for grabs on Oct. 3 and more than 866,000 eligible voters to be courted, Manitoba’s New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives have staged campaign announcements in fewer than two dozen communities since the writ was issued early this month.

Over the past three weeks, NDP Leader Wab Kinew concentrated his political attention in three Winnipeg communities and hosted multiple campaign commitments in PC-held Fort Richmond, Kirkfield Park and St. Boniface, all of which the party hopes to turn orange on election day.

By contrast, the Progressive Conservatives, for the most part, have stuck to their own territory, tapping their seasoned, incumbent MLAs to announce tax breaks, economic-development promises and health spending in select suburban Winnipeg constituencies the party is desperate to retain and Tory strongholds in rural Manitoba.

The intense focus on a small part of Manitoba’s population speaks to a changing political environment — one that sees messages highly targeted to voters who have been divvied up into smaller and smaller segments by the parties, says Brandon University political sciences professor Kelly Saunders.

“It’s just the way politics has changed. Voters are much more volatile, and there’s a lot more unpredictability,” she says.

“They’re really narrowing their messages to appeal to certain segments of voters, whereas in the old days, it used to be casting a much wider net because there was more predictability and more continuity.”

Manitoba New Democrats have also been moving at full throttle on the campaign trail, putting Kinew in front of cameras on a near-daily basis for lengthy news conferences.

And while the Tories have matched the NDP’s pace in rolling out campaign promises, they have kept a lower profile in the media, choosing to hold events in residential cul-du-sacs or on private properties in order to limit reporters’ access to ask questions. Premier Heather Stefanson attended only a fraction of the party’s announcements.

Asked whether the Progressive Conservatives are on the defensive, campaigning mainly in their constituencies, campaign manager Marni Larkin offers an exasperated response.

“You want to talk about defensive? Let’s talk about (Wednesday’s) announcement,” Larkin says, referring to an event at Brentford Park in St. Vital, where incumbent Riel candidate and Families Minister Rochelle Squires announced more daycare spaces and tax credits for fertility treatments.

Striking Crown corporation employees showed up and tried to shout over the PC announcement, Larkin says, calling it a sign of “desperation” from the NDP’s core.

“Never once have we gone to one of their announcements and been disruptive or disrespectful, because we strongly believe that Manitobans have a right to hear everyone’s plan before they make a decision,”she says.

“Desperation is on Monday, when we went to make a health-care announcement, and them flooding the field with (NDP Kirkfield Park candidate) Logan Oxenham signs just before.”

“We’re in the fight of our lives.”–Marni Larkin

The NDP learned of the Tories’ campaign event near Grace Hospital that morning and arrived beforehand with lawn signs.

“That’s desperation, and you will not see that from us because we’re not desperate, we’re focused,” she says.

The focus for the PCs is staying in power and reaching voters at the doors.

“We’re in the fight of our lives” she says.

Candidates, such as Southdale incumbent and Health Minister Audrey Gordon, are campaigning door-to-door instead of taking part in campaign announcements, Larkin says.

The party has also launched a significant advertising campaign to showcase its promise to enhance parental rights and to attack Kinew for being soft on crime, alleging public safety will get worse under a NDP government.

“Every moment we’re not at doors is a moment we’re not getting ID’d votes,” Larkin says. “That is the key to success in all campaigns. We need to make the announcements because we need to share our platform, but our primary focus is locally, on the ground.”

For the New Democrats’ part, the more time Kinew can spend in front of a camera, the better.

“We have to talk to voters about the issues that matter to them, which is health care and lowering costs,” campaign political director Emily Coutts says. “And we know that the more people who see Wab, the more they like him. So this campaign, we are trying to talk to voters everywhere and anywhere that we can.”

Coutts insists NDP bastions such as Point Douglas, St. Johns and Wolseley are not being overlooked in the party’s laser focus on only a handful of communities.

“To win the government, you need to win more seats than you already have. So that’s what we’re doing. We’re trying to become the government; we’re trying to win,” she says.

“We don’t think anything is a foregone conclusion, and so we have to keep working to win every single vote, whether it’s a vote in a seat that we’ve held since it’s been formed or a seat that we’re trying to win back from the conservatives.”

The diverging political game plans that put the NDP on the attack while the PCs attempt to hold their ground reflect public opinion polls that suggest the Tories are headed to defeat, Saunders says.

Limited media appearances and tightly controlled messages will be critical at this juncture, and the PCs may consider pulling back even further on Stefanson’s appearances, she says, adding resources will be directed to constituencies where the Tories will have the best foundation to build from in the future.

“They don’t have the luxury of being on the offensive right now, because that could blow up in their face and they could even lose more than they otherwise might,” she says.

The targeted campaign strategies also show how polarized Manitoba’s political parties are and their narrow focus on seizing or holding on to power, says an expert observer of Manitoba politics.

“We have to keep working to win every single vote”–Emily Coutts

“For purposes of campaigning, the parties exaggerate their differences,” says University of Manitoba political studies professor emeritus Paul Thomas.

“In office, they must confront the realities and constraints of governing a small ‘have less’ province.”

The degree of polarization exists mainly between the parties’ leaders and activists, says Thomas, who has closely watched Manitoba elections for more than 60 years. It’s expected that opposition parties will attack the government’s record and then pivot to offer hope and the promise of improvements in multiple areas.

“Most Manitobans are not ideological in their thinking,” he says. “They simply want governments which work better and provide good value for their tax dollars.”

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca

danielle.dasilva@freepress.mb.ca