FP hockey mailbag By: Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe Posted: 1:13 PM CDT Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 01/10/2023 (736 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

You’ve got questions. We’ve got answers.

Welcome to a new feature here at the Free Press, where hockey writers Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe will tackle your queries about the Winnipeg Jets.

The mailbag, which will appear online the first Sunday of each month, has plenty of material to work with. If you’d like to submit a question for the next edition, email Mike and/or Ken. You can also reach out via our social media channels, if you prefer. On X, we’re at WiebesWorld and mikemcintyrewpg.

Let’s get right to it:

1. Who (if any) is most likely first to sign a contract extension with the Jets? Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck, Nino Niederreiter, Brenden Dillon or Dylan DeMelo?

KW: This is an interesting question and the realm of possibilities attached to it only heightens the anticipation. The most complex extensions revolve around Hellebuyck and Scheifele, due to the expected term and dollar involved. While those are the situations the Jets organization would probably like to get resolved first, they’re also probably the most likely to drag on over the course of the season.

The only thing remotely close to having two players with this importance in the final season of a deal while on an expiring contract and having the ability to become a UFA for the first time was in 2016, when top D-man Dustin Byfuglien and captain (and first line left-winger) Andrew Ladd were both looking for new deals. That year Byfuglien signed a five-year extension and Ladd was dealt prior to the NHL trade deadline.

However, it’s important to remember the Jets were out of a playoff spot, which likely impacted the decision-making process to a certain degree.

Dillon is a player the Jets value and he could be open to an extension, but since DeMelo is on the top pairing and has been the most consistent D partner for Josh Morrissey, that would move him to the front of the line. However, given the high number of skilled forward prospects the Jets are looking to integrate into lineup during the next two seasons, you could also make the guess a perennial 20-goal scorer like Niederreiter (who also plays the physical, in-your-face game that head coach Rick Bowness appreciates) has him in the discussion as well.

In my power rankings, let’s go with DeMelo as 1A and Niederreiter as 1B. The Hellebuyck and Scheifele talks could drag on until February or even March.

MM: The Jets have a ton of talent with just one year remaining on their current contracts. If you add Laurent Brossoit to the list, Winnipeg’s No. 1 centre, a second-line winger, a pair of top-six (potentially top-four) defencemen and both goaltenders (including a three-time Vezina Trophy finalist) can all become unrestricted free agents by July 1.

In other words, this roster could look a LOT different in relative short order.

As general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said prior to training camp, even if Winnipeg wanted to sign all of their pending UFAs, there’s no guarantee they’d have the money to do so.

Call me crazy, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say Hellebuyck – who no doubt is at the very top of Winnipeg’s wish list to re-sign – ultimately decides to stick around at least a little bit longer with some kind of extension.

2. In what order are the Jets likely to waive the following defencemen: Logan Stanley, Kyle Capobianco, Declan Chisholm?

MM: A timely topic, and one that might be keeping Cheveldayoff and his staff tossing and turning at night given that they watched drafted-and-developed defenceman Johnny Kovacevic get scooped up last year by the Montreal Canadiens in similar circumstances.

When camp began, there was a good chance one of Stanley, Capobianco and Chisholm would likely be exposed to the waiver wire, with the other two sticking on as the 7th/8th blue-liners. But Ville Heinola’s strong camp — coach Rick Bowness said Saturday the young Finn is very much in play to make the opening night roster despite being waiver exempt — means two of the three may have to go assuming everyone else remains healthy.

I’ll say Capobianco is the first out the door, despite the fact the Jets really like how he handled his role last year with the big club. Fact is, they just don’t have as much invested in the free agent signing.

If a second blue-liner gets the boot, I suspect Chisholm may have passed Stanley on the internal depth chart at this point. But I’d also be surprised if Stanley makes it down to the Manitoba Moose, with another NHL team out there likely to find room for the six-foot-seven former first-rounder.

KW: Further to Mike’s point, Capobianco’s status is somewhat clouded by the fact he’s not a drafted and developed homegrown player like Stanley and Chisholm. The Jets have committed a lot of time and effort to both of those players. Complicating this matter is that Capobianco is likely the best candidate to handle the eighth defenceman role, given his ability to go long stretches without playing last season and then jumping into the lineup and providing steady minutes when called upon.

Given Chisholm’s mobility and upside, he’s the least likely to be waived. The Jets would prefer to trade Stanley if he’s not going to be on the roster, but if the market was bullish, he likely would have been moved during the offseason. Even with the strong showing in limited minutes and difficult circumstances last season, Capobianco is the most likely player to be waived – though it’s important to remember he’s currently dealing with a groin injury.

3. Is Ville Heinola going to need an injury to Morrissey, Pionk or Schmidt to get an extended run in the top 6 and PP2 in 2023-24?

KW: Through four preseason games (three of which he’s appeared in), Heinola has done his part to make the decision as tough as possible on the Jets brass. If he can continue that progression during the final two games, there’s an opportunity for him to break camp with the Jets, even though he’s exempt from waivers for one more season. Injuries are part of the game and how many opportunities for young players are often provided.

However, Heinola’s ability to show that he’s improving the defensive side of his game while also demonstrating the ability to retrieve and move pucks is how he’s going to earn more playing time. When in the lineup, Heinola would be a candidate for time on the second power play unit. His priority is to become an NHL regular and then the special-teams work will be the next goal.

MM: I likely would have said ‘Yes’ prior to camp. Now? I’m not so convinced.

If Bowness is being truthful and roster decisions will indeed be made on merit, I’m not sure how Heinola doesn’t get a chance. To me, the most likely player he challenges for playing time is Schmidt, who is coming off a tough season and could be an expensive (US $5.95 million) press box spectator for some games if Heinola keeps showing as well as he has in the preseason.

4. Who do you project to be the Jets top two PK units this season?

MM: Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, Morgan Barron and Rasmus Kupari are all likely to be used on the PK. Lowry and Appleton have typically been paired together, and Barron and Kupari have been taking some reps in the preseason so far.

KW: The arrival of Alex Iafallo up front means the Jets could go with three sets of forwards or potentially go with a five-man rotation. While Lowry and Appleton have often been sent out together, Iafallo adds another layer of depth to the equation. Some combination of these five forwards will likely be used, with Vladislav Namestnikov also a candidate for duty up front.

On the back end, look for Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo and Dylan Samberg to carry a heavy load. Neal Pionk, Nate Schmidt and Josh Morrissey have all been used while shorthanded as well – though not using them in that spot is a way to manage the minutes for both Morrissey and Pionk, so let’s give Schmidt the nod here for the time being.

Heinola, Chisholm, Stanley and Capobianco would all be under consideration if and then they’re in the lineup.

5. Will Kevin Cheveldayoff last the season?

KW: Cheveldayoff is back for his 13th season and if the Jets were considering a change for the big chair, they probably would have done so before allowing him to make the trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois.

That deal was widely applauded on a league-wide level, given the limited number of teams in the bidding. There’s still some serious stickhandling for Cheveldayoff to navigate in the short term, given the contract situations of multiple key cogs.

But given how the organization feels about the importance of continuity, things would have to go off the rails in rather dramatic fashion for a firing to be considered this season.

MM: In a word, yes. I suspect Cheveldayoff still has plenty of faith from ownership given that they’ve continued to let him hold the keys as the club enters a critical crossroads. Whether it was the dubious Dubois situation (and, from my perch, making out extremely well with the return) or navigating the ongoing contract situations with the likes of Hellebuyck and Scheifele, the fact Cheveldayoff remains in control is quite telling.

He’s the second most-tenured GM in the league, and I’d be shocked if that changed at any point during the upcoming campaign. However, a poor 2023-24 will no doubt make his seat a lot warmer, and I wouldn’t rule anything out entering next summer.

6. Would you take the over or under on the likelihood of Scheifele (45%) and Hellebuyck (25%) re-signing with the Jets at any point between now and July 1, 2024?

MM: I’ll take the under on Scheifele and the over on Hellebuyck. Both players would be difficult to replace, of course, as No. 1 centres and No. 1 goaltenders don’t grow on trees. It feels like the first few months of this season will ultimately go a long way to determining the futures of both foundational players.

KW: To have a Vezina-calibre goalie and top-line pivot signed for just over $6 million for the upcoming season is a major coup for the Jets, but the issue at hand is that both players are going to be 31 when a potential contact extension would kick in and both players are going to be looking for a raise – and likely a significant one.

While Hellebuyck appears to be taking more of a long-range approach with his future, don’t be surprised to see the Jets engage in more serious discussions with Scheifele during the coming weeks.

As for the over/under totals, I appreciate the thought process behind them, but there are really only two options at play: 100% or 0%. They will stay or they will go. But to play along, I will say it’s higher than 45% on Scheifele and slightly higher than 25% that Hellebuyck can be convinced to stick around.

7. Will any rookies make the team this year? Do you think Chaz Lucius plays any games with the big club this season?

MM: The Jets have enough depth at all positions that they don’t need to rush players like Brad Lambert (who was sent to the Moose on Saturday), Nikita Chibrikov (also sent to the Moose), Chaz Lucius (likely going to the Moose shortly), Colby Barlow (likely headed back to junior) and Elias Salomonsson (likely headed back to Sweden, currently nursing a neck injury).

As mentioned earlier, Declan Chisholm could start the year as a depth defenceman if the Jets don’t want to risk losing him on waivers. If the injuries start piling up to forwards and Lucius and Lambert can hold their own in the AHL, I wouldn’t rule out seeing one, or both, at some point this season. But file it under highly unlikely.

KW: The Jets forward prospects playing at the pro level all need further seasoning, especially when you consider Lambert and Lucius are going to start the American Hockey League season playing centre. Their recall opportunities are likely related to what happens with Scheifele to a certain degree. It’s possible Lambert and/or Lucius could get an opportunity to make their NHL debut at some point this season, but earning full-time work seems unlikely.

Lucius has missed so much development time due to injuries over the past several seasons that he’s going to simply focus on earning playing time and rounding out his game. It’s more likely his NHL debut won’t come until the 2024-25 season. Chisholm has the best chance for regular work this season among the rookies, coming off his All-star campaign in the AHL.

8. Without Connor Hellebuyck’s contract uncertainty, does Laurent Brossoit sign with the Jets?

MM: There’s no doubt Brossoit, coming off a Stanley Cup championship with the Vegas Golden Knights in which he suffered an unfortunate injury in the second round, smells opportunity in Winnipeg. But he also values the friendship he has with Hellebuyck — they share the same agent and trainer — along with the relationships he made with the Jets organization during his previous three years here.

I suspect he would have been open to coming back as Hellebuyck’s understudy even if a long-term extension was in place.

KW: This is a great example of the more things change, the more they stay the same. When Brossoit left the Jets as an unrestricted free agent to sign with the olden Knights in the summer of 2021, his goal was to become a No. 1 goalie. While he achieved that distinction during the stretch run and into the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs last season before he suffered an injury, starting netminder status has remained somewhat elusive to this point.

The benefit for Brossoit is that when healthy, he’s shown the ability to carry the mail. Brossoit’s career high for NHL games played is 24 and starts is 21. In the spirit of the previous question, you should take the over in both of those categories.

While Brossoit is the clear-cut backup right now, he’s more than just an insurance policy for Hellebuyck. He’s a guy who could take over the No. 1 job if the Jets get to the point where they feel they have to trade Hellebuyck or if he leaves as an unrestricted free agent. If a No. 1 job is available next season with the Jets, I could easily see him signing an extension.

Until that happens, Brossoit is likely to keep his options open. Otherwise, he’ll likely look for a place where more of a job share is available.