Mailbag: Jets get high marks after hot start By: Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe Posted: 12:54 PM CDT Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 27/10/2024 (340 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Winnipeg Jets are off to a flying start this season, which likely explains why there was a lot more joy and much less angst than usual in our Free Press mailbag this month.

As always, readers responded with both quantity and quality when it comes to questions about the club. Topics include the source of the surge so far, Connor Hellebuyck’s workload, Nikolaj Ehlers’ future, Cole Perfetti’s ceiling, potential line juggling, attendance at Canada Life Centre, the prospect pool and some potential trade scenarios.

Hockey writers Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe have your answers below:

1. Do you think the Jets’ success is foundational? Rick Bowness implemented the system, worked on it over a year and Scott Arniel refined with specialty teams and now they’re reaping the payoff. RODGER

McINTYRE: A great question, and one I think you’ve sort of answered yourself. Yes, absolutely. Bowness deserves plenty of credit for helping to get this group on the right track when it comes to responsible two-way hockey. It’s become their calling card, and you can see Bowness’ fingerprints still very much on the product even in his retirement.

That’s not to take away any credit for Arniel, who was a big piece of that over the past two years as an associate coach (in charge of the defence) and now is running the show. It’s been a total team effort, and the Jets are very much reaping the rewards.

Playing this style of hockey, with all kinds of a structure and discipline, certainly isn’t easy. If it was, everyone would be doing it. But at some point a light switch has gone on for the players — who deserve major credit as well — that following this blueprint on a consistent basis is the best way to play.

Arniel made special teams a priority this summer, brought in two new assistants to focus on the power-play and penalty- killing units and spent a ton of time in training camp working on it.

When you combine improvements in those pivotal areas while maintaining the solid foundation that is now in place, it really is a recipe for success.

2. Are the Jets going to lower the load on Connor Hellebuyck this regular season, so he’ll have enough energy left for the playoffs come April? BOB

WIEBE: This question has been a serious source of debate among the Jets fan base for the past several seasons and there’s no doubt that Hellebuyck prides himself on being a workhorse and that he’s been able to thrive in the regular season under those conditions.

It’s also true that Hellebuyck hasn’t been able to sustain his all-world form in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs against the Vegas Golden Knights in 2023 or the Colorado Avalanche in 2024 when the Jets were dispatched in five games in both of those series.

Let’s not forget the dip in his playoff performance had a lot to do with the play in front of him, but Hellebuyck is an elite goalie and has another level to reach in the post-season in order to achieve his ultimate goal.

Could he help reach that place with a reduction in workload?

Probably, though that’s tough to say for sure, especially after watching the way Hellebuyck has played in the early stages of this season.

He’s been downright brilliant and has been between the pipes for six of the eight games. There’s no way he goes all Martin Brodeur and finishes with north of 70 starts, but at this pace, it’s hard to imagine he won’t hit or eclipse 60 starts for the sixth time of his career. He also hit 56 and 58 on two other occasions and started 45 of 56 games during the pandemic-shortened season.

The Jets are in the midst of playing every other day for an extended period of time and so Eric Comrie is going to get a chance to play a bit more often and finding a way to get him somewhere in the range of 20 to 24 starts would be beneficial to all parties.

Comrie was excellent in his first start of the season, turning aside 39 of 42 shots on goal that he faced against the Penguins. We need a bigger sample size before determining that Comrie is back to the level he played at during his last stint with the Jets — when he had a .920 save percentage and posted a 2.58 goals-against average in 19 appearances and 16 starts. But if he can give his team a chance to win most nights, Comrie should allow Hellebuyck to stay a bit fresher heading into the stretch run and the Stanley Cup playoffs.

3. What are the Jets going to do with Nikolaj Ehlers? If the Jets are playoff contenders they will not want to trade him at the deadline which means he walks after this season with nothing in return? BRIAN

McINTYRE: There’s no doubt it’s risky business to not have a clear direction in place as this season gets underway. But it would appear all parties are content to let this play out, at least for now, and see where it ends up.

You’re correct in noting there’s basically no chance Winnipeg will look to move Ehlers by the trade deadline and sabotage their own playoff chances in the process, so we can probably rule that option out. That would send a terrible message both internally and externally, and I just don’t see it happening unless they are somehow well out of the post-season picture, which also seems unlikely.

However, that doesn’t guarantee he walks. I still believe there’s a scenario where Ehlers re-signs with the Jets — either during the season or even after it — especially if this year goes swimmingly for both the player and the team. So far, so good on both those fronts.

The ninth-overall pick from 2014 is a fan favourite, genuinely loves playing in Winnipeg and is an important part of the current core. The grass isn’t always greener on the other side and if everyone can come to an agreement on a practical price, then why not?

Now 28, Ehlers will be coming off a seven-year deal that paid him US$6 million per season. I’m curious what his next contract looks like, but I do believe the Jets have both the appetite and the future cap room to keep him around.

If a new deal ultimately can’t get done, then not getting some kind of asset in return will certainly sting. But I wouldn’t say it amounts to losing him for “nothing,” as the Jets will have gotten 10 seasons and nearly 700 games out of Ehlers, while also opening up some considerable cap space that they would no doubt try to use strategically to fill a big void.

4. As a team, the Jets are +18 in goal differential (heading into action Saturday night) and yet predictably the top line is minus-4 at five-on-five. The Vlad Namestnikov line has poor underlying numbers, is there any chance there are changes coming? @mennoknight427

WIEBE: Over the course of an 82-game schedule, changes to the lines are inevitable, either through injury or performance. But the early stages of the Arniel era suggest the line blender isn’t going to be operating at an industrial level.

There’s plenty of evidence over the years that the combination of Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor are constantly battling to get on the positive side of goal differential. While that sample size is large, I’m of the belief that we should provide more time to see whether or not Gabe Vilardi can help turn the tide.

Vilardi was limited to 47 games last season and probably less than half of those included both he and Connor being healthy at the same time.

According to Natural Stat Trick, the trio was used at five-on-five in 17 games last season and played 192:50 together and they were outscored 13-11 at five-on-five. They’ve played together for eight games so far this season and the numbers are similar, though Vilardi got off to a slow start offensively and just scored his first of the season on Thursday against the Seattle Kraken.

Might that help him get going? We shall see.

As for the trio of Namestnikov, Ehlers and Cole Perfetti, they struggled to generate offence in the first three games, but have been more dangerous in most of the games that followed. There are signs of cohesion and both Ehlers and Namestnikov discussed the importance of better support and spacing in recent conversations.

Ehlers is benefiting from his promotion to the top power-play unit, though his average ice time is down slightly from last season (15:28 from 15:52). It’s too early to suggest that’s a trend and it’s likely that number rises as the season moves along. His usage is always a source of contention, though shift length is a consideration, since he takes shorter shifts than Scheifele and Connor.

The Jets outscored opponents 16-6 at five-on-five when Ehlers moved up to the top line when Connor suffered a knee injury against the Ducks last season. Much of that magic took place before the Christmas break and the trio wasn’t as dominant after the Jets returned to action. That’s not to suggest it can’t be tried out again. The 20-game sample was positive, no doubt about that.

It’s also not a large enough sample to suggest it’s guaranteed to yield results.

Ehlers with Scheifele and Connor also outscored opponents 5-1 in 13 games together at five-on-five, so that’s a trio that could be revisited at some point this season.

Vilardi’s ability to win board battles and willingness to get to the blue paint, combined with a soft touch around the net, is a nice complement to Scheifele and Connor. There’s no doubt in my mind he could find success with Perfetti if they played together as well.

Given how well the Adam Lowry line has played, coupled with the steady minutes being provided by the fourth unit, my expectation is that both the Scheifele and Namestnikov lines will be given ample time to see if this alignment is the optimal one as the Jets push toward the 25-game mark.

5. My question would be are the Jets concerned that they have only drafted one NHL regular (Cole Perfetti) since Marcel Comeau retired in 2019? RILEY

McINTYRE: The pipeline hasn’t dried up by any means, but the flow has certainly slowed down in recent years. Part of that has been the Jets in “win now” mode, which hasn’t created as many opportunities for young players to make an early impact. Part of that has been trading away some draft picks as part of that all-in mentality. And some of that has been bad luck on the injury front.

If we’re going by years, I firmly believe Ville Heinola (first round, 2019) becomes an NHL regular once he can stay healthy, and Simon Lundmark (second round, 2019) had a terrific training camp this fall.

The oft-injured Chaz Lucius (first round, 2021) and the intriguing Nikita Chibrikov (2021 second round) are still ones to watch, and the likes of Brad Lambert (first round, 2022), Elias Salomonsson (second round, 2022), Colby Barlow (first round, 2023), Brayden Yager (first round, 2023; acquired in trade for 2022 first rounder Rutger McGroarty), Thomas Milic (fifth round, 2023), Alfons Freij (second round, 2024) and Kevin He (fourth round, 2024), among others, could all get there one day, too.

Bottom line: It’s too early to make a definitive “boom or bust” type declaration on any of the recent draft classes.

6. Now that Cole Perfetti looks like he’s grown into his body/role on the 2nd line to go along with his hockey IQ, what do you think his ceiling is? RODGER

WIEBE: After inking his two-year bridge deal, Perfetti revealed that he had put on nine pounds of muscle during the off-season and that will help him withstand the rigours of an NHL season. Having an extended amount of time for training was important for someone who dealt with season-ending injuries in the previous two campaigns when he dealt with back and shoulder issues.

It was a quiet start to the season offensively for Perfetti, but he’s found his groove and seems to be settling in nicely. His instincts and vision have been on display and he’s operating at more than a point-per-game pace through eight games.

Perfetti was operating at a similar point-per-game pace through 25 games (nine goals, 19 points in 23 games) and had 29 points in 40 games last season before going through a lengthy dry spell and finishing with 19 goals and 38 points in 71 games.

That was a glimpse of his potential. Projecting a player’s ceiling is always a bit of a crapshoot, since development is often not a linear path, but my belief is that Perfetti has the tools to be in the point-per-game player range during the course of his career.

Whether that means he’s out there eclipsing 75 or 85 points, it’s a bit early to tell. And those numbers may fluctuate depending on when he’s promoted to the top power play unit in his career.

Perfetti is still averaging around 14 minutes per game and in order for him to sustain the point-per-game pace, he’ll likely need to move to the 16-to-18 minute range.

An underrated part of Perfetti’s game is his shot, so I won’t be surprised to see him score north of 30 goals, possibly with regularity.

7. Noticed our attendance is still below capacity, but not as low as last year’s start. Can we say TNSE has stepped up their game and are sellouts a year or two away? VERN

McINTYRE: It’s fair to say that, absolutely. It should like True North made some modest gains this summer when it comes to season ticket packages, improving from around 9,500 to something in the 10,000 range. And it would appear single game sales/walk-ups are up as well.

The first four home games last season averaged just 11,823 fans, with a low of 11,136 among them. The first four home games this year averaged 13,665 — so more than 1,800 more per game.

As Mark Chipman said last year, the Jets are trying to get back into the 13,000 range when it comes to season tickets, so they still have miles to go before they sleep. But it would appear they’ve not only stopped the bleeding, but are working on healing the wounds.

Crowds typically spike after Christmas, and it’s interesting that the Jets have a very heavy home schedule in January. While the players may not love spending most of the month in Winter-peg, it will be interesting to see if the box office sees a boost.

I suspect there will be plenty of games this year played in front of a packed house, perhaps as early as Monday’s annual visit from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Of course, half the crowd will likely be cheering for the visitors, but a sold ticket is a sold ticket, right?

8. Do you think the Jets would entertain a trade with the Blue Jackets to obtain Sean Monahan to fill the 2nd centre position? He supposedly signed there to play with Johnny Hockey but that didn’t happen. GEORGE

WIEBE: Monahan was an excellent addition for the Jets last season and you can’t underestimate the importance of the preemptive strike that allowed him some additional time to adapt to his new team.

The Jets were definitely interested in keeping Monahan around, though the five-year term that was offered by the Blue Jackets is something the Jets weren’t likely comfortable with in the first place. Monahan’s US$5.5 million AAV isn’t extravagant, but the Jets would need to move salary out in order to make it work.

That Monahan won’t be able to play on a line with one of his best friends is unfortunate after the terrible tragedy that took the life of Johnny and Matthew Gaudreau. But Monahan and his wife had a baby during the off-season and they were also looking forward to being closer to family in the Eastern Conference.

Monahan was also brought in to help the Blue Jackets take steps forward as an organization, so I don’t think they will be in a hurry to move on from him.

It’s not impossible the Jets look to add depth down the middle before the NHL trade deadline, but after acquiring Yager in the trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Lambert knocking on the door with the Manitoba Moose in the AHL, a reunion with Monahan seems highly unlikely.

9. Which centre will make the Jets first: Brayden Yager or Brad Lambert? MARK

McINTYRE: I’m going to go ahead and say the guy who is already playing pro in Lambert. Funny enough, I’m sitting at the Manitoba Moose home opener on Saturday afternoon as I type this up and Lambert just had a nice assist on a first period power-play goal from Mason Shaw.

I’ll be stunned if Lambert doesn’t see action at some point with the Jets this year. The only thing that will prevent it is if the team stays remarkably healthy.

Depending on the specific need, Lambert is probably going to be the first player called up.

Yager, meanwhile, is having a terrific start to his WHL year. Not only is he wearing the ‘C’ in Moose Jaw, he had 14 points, including seven goals, in his first nine games. I expect he’s going to play a big role with Team Canada at the World Juniors, and he should be ready to compete for a job with the Jets as early as next fall.

I like both prospects a lot, and the Jets now seem pretty solid up the middle in terms of young upcoming talent. It’s possible one, or both, of Lambert and Yager are shifted to the wing, but they both look like solid future NHLers to me. I just think Lambert probably gets his career going slightly ahead of Yager.

10. With Utah needing a D-man, what are the chances we offload Logan Stanley to open up the spot for Ville Heinola/Haydn Fleury? DOUG

WIEBE: Utah HC is off to a strong start, which is even more impressive when you consider the long-term injuries to Sean Durzi (out until at least February with a shoulder injury) and John Marino (out until at least January with a back injury).

Utah GM Bill Armstrong has the cap space and draft capital to make a move and he’s likely to make an addition at some point to upgrade the back end. However, both Durzi and Marino are right-handed-shooting D-men who mostly occupy that side of the depth chart.

Stanley hasn’t spent much time playing on his offside, so this isn’t likely a trade fit.

Secondly, moving on from Stanley isn’t a priority for the Jets. Quite the opposite, with Stanley suiting up in a fourth consecutive game since coming back from a knee injury, it seems clear the Jets want to find out if Stanley can claim the job on the third pairing and finally become an NHL regular.

It’s been said plenty of times before, but the departure of Brenden Dillon in free agency means that adding some additional size and sandpaper is something the Jets could use on the blue line.

Stanley has shown he can play a physical game, but needs to be engaged on that front with more consistency in order to take the next step in his development.

The Jets have invested a lot of time in Stanley’s development since trading up to get him in the 2016 NHL Draft at 18th overall and they’re determined to see what they have in him this season.

Certainly, he’ll have more competition for ice time when Heinola is cleared to return from the ankle issue that required surgery, but as Jets head coach Scott Arniel pointed out earlier this week, Heinola still hasn’t started skating and hinted his return isn’t imminent.

Even when Heinola gets the green light medically, it’s hard to imagine he won’t require a two-week conditioning stint with the Manitoba Moose to help him get back up to speed. Given all of the time he’s missed, that would be a prudent move, so the Jets aren’t likely to be moving on from a D-man anytime soon.

As for Fleury, I thought he looked steady on that third pairing with Colin Miller before Stanley returned. Fleury’s mobility and puck-moving ability are things that make his signing look like a shrewd move, no matter where he ends up on the depth chart.

For the time being, Fleury has to stay ready for when his number is called and the same goes for Dylan Coghlan, who has yet to see action in the regular season.

mike.mcintyre@freepress.mb.ca

X: @mikemcintyrewpg

ken.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca

X: @WiebesWorld