Already-strong support in Manitoba for federal Tories inches up in latest Probe-Free Press poll By: Scott Billeck Posted: 6:45 PM CST Friday, Dec. 13, 2024

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Growing support for Tory leader Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives could turn several Winnipeg seats blue in next year’s federal election, new survey results suggest.

A Free Press-Probe Research poll shows that Poilievre has the support of the majority of decided and leaning Manitoba voters, while trust in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to deteriorate.

The quarterly omnibus poll suggests Poilievre is favoured by 52 per cent of voters with a preference, up from 50 per cent in September and 39 per cent in the last federal election in fall 2021.

“It’s more of the same,” Probe partner Curtis Brown said. “They keep gaining more and more momentum. It shores up how strong the Conservatives seem to be.”

The same can’t be said for the Liberals, with fewer than one in five poll participants now planning to vote for a fourth Liberal mandate.

That could put suburban seats in Winnipeg South and St. Boniface-St. Vital under threat, Probe’s findings suggest, with competitive battles likely in the Liberal strongholds of Winnipeg South Centre and Winnipeg North, as well as the NDP-held Elmwood-Transcona.

Forty-three per cent of poll respondents with a preference would pick Poilievre if the election were to be held now, up five points from 2021, compared to just 24 per cent for Trudeau.

“In my 10 election victories, nine of them everyone said I was going to lose,” Winnipeg North MP Kevin Lamoureux said Friday, mainly dismissing the survey results. “I try not to read into polls.”

Lamoureux, who has held his seat in Parliament since 2010, says Canadians don’t know the real Poilievre but they will, in time.

“During the election, people will get to know Pierre Poilievre a lot more,” he said, adding that he’s heard increasing concerns about the Conservative leader expressed in recent months. “I want people to know who he is.”

University of Manitoba political studies adjunct professor Christopher Adams said there’s a dynamic that exists in Lamoureux’s riding, where people tend to vote for the local candidate before the party and its leader.

Generally, over the last 30 years, the leader has become more prominent in decision-making, and while Lamoureux has bucked that trend, Adams wouldn’t say it’s the same for Terry Duguid in Winnipeg South or Ben Carr in Winnipeg South Centre.

“The reason for that is people in those other ridings are mostly voting for the party and the leader and not the local dynamics,” Adams said.

Going back a couple of decades, Adams said the way Winnipeg South goes, so does the nation.

Duguid, who first won his seat in 2015, said what he’s experiencing at the door in his constituency completely contradicts the polls.

While polls show a five-point drop in Liberal support in Winnipeg compared to 2021, Duguid points out he won his riding by 14 points.

“Folks are very concerned on the heels of a former Conservative government, they’re concerned about cuts, they’re concerned about Poilievre’s agenda,” he said. “Things really haven’t changed.”

Poilievre’s appeal in the province has risen 13 percentage points since the last federal election, including five points in Winnipeg, while Trudeau’s has plummeted nine points, including four in 2024.

Trudeau’s support in Manitoba dropped two points, down to 19 per cent, compared to poll findings in September.

Outside the Perimeter, 65 per cent say they would vote for Poilievre, compared to just 12 per cent for the incumbent.

Support for Jagmeet Singh and the federal NDP stayed steady at 24 per cent and has risen by just one point from his 2021 election tally.

“That’s good news for the NDP that they aren’t losing support at the aggregate level,” Adams said. “We don’t see the NDP declining in the way the Liberals have declined.”

Probe found that Liberal support has tanked, especially among younger and middle-aged men, as many flock to Poilievre, not Singh.

Brown suggested that could have something to do with the NDP being seen as attached to the Liberals’ hip in recent years.

“If people aren’t happy with the Liberals, they could be unhappy with the NDP,” he said.

Sixteen per cent of those surveyed, meanwhile, remain undecided.

Women under the age of 55 are split on Tory and NDP voting, while older women tend to lean slightly toward casting a Conservative vote. Still, three in 10 would still mark their ballot for a Liberal candidate, the largest share among other demographic groups.

The Tories also enjoy high support among Indigenous and racialized Manitobans, presenting a hurdle for the two main opposition parties.

The poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults was taken from Nov. 26 to Dec. 10. The poll is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.

scott.billeck@freepress.mb.ca