A Liberal cabinet minister, a silent Tory and an NDP rookie walk into Winnipeg South… Changing, more affluent face of Manitoba’s most populous riding, redistribution could benefit Conservatives despite Duguid’s deep roots, political scientist says By: Malak Abas Posted: 1:22 PM CDT Monday, Apr. 14, 2025 Last Modified: 10:00 AM CDT Tuesday, Apr. 15, 2025 Updates

Stuart Brown walked into a coffee shop wearing a hat embossed with words that have become a mantra across the country: “Canada is not for sale.”

They hold a lot of meaning to the retired police officer, who lives in the Winnipeg South riding.

He said he has has felt increasingly anxious about the economic prospects for his three children.

So, on April 28, he plans to do his part to ensure incumbent Liberal MP Terry Duguid is unseated.

“The Liberals haven’t done anything for people in the last 10 years,” Brown said. “Tell me what they’ve done positive. I’ll say to anybody, vote for who you want, that’s your right. But for me, I look at it and I go, ‘What have you truly done for Canada?’”

Constituents who were grabbing a morning brew recently were split about who they want to represent the area, a riding that has flipped between the two major parties based on changes in government and has been held by Duguid for a decade.

Roger Bouchard has voted for both the Conservative and the Liberal parties in the past, but thinks Liberal Leader Mark Carney is uniquely suited to handle the bluster and uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has shaken up economies around the globe with his on-again, off-again threats and imposition of tariffs.

And he has upset Canadians from coast to coast with repeated musings about annexation to make the True North strong and free into the 51st American state.

“I think tariffs, annexation are pretty much the top topics right now, and I think Carney will probably do a better job than (Conservative Leader Pierre) Poilievre or (NDP Leader Jagmeet) Singh,” Bouchard said.

For his part, Duguid said he knows his party has benefited from anti-Trump sentiment. The environment and climate change minister has seen the polls mark a Liberal upswing across Canada and acknowledges that conversations with constituents have become more positive since Carney took over as prime minister and called a snap election. Duguid has learned that political fortunes can change quickly.

“I’m not a big truster in the polls,” Duguid told the Free Press. “I trust what I hear at the doors.”

Before becoming an MP, Duguid was a city councillor from 1989 to 1995. He ran for mayor of Winnipeg in 1995, but lost to Susan Thompson. He ran federally in Kildonan-St. Paul in 2004 and 2006, losing to the Conservative candidate both times, and lost to the Conservatives again when he ran in Winnipeg South for the first time, in 2011.

In 2015, as a red wave under Justin Trudeau swept across Canada, he won the Winnipeg South seat, and has been re-elected twice.

He was named to cabinet in December, weeks before Trudeau said he would resign as prime minister.

The riding has changed significantly in the last decade, in part because of population growth. Statistics Canada data from 2021 shows Winnipeg South is the most populated riding in Manitoba, having experienced the highest population growth of any riding since 2012.

Certain regions have exploded, Duguid said, pointing to Waverley West as an example. Its population, which includes newcomers and young families, is now larger than Brandon’s.

That has changed the work he does as an MP, Duguid said.

“My office, one of the major things we do is is immigration work, helping to unite families and to tend to the needs of people of diverse cultures. That has been a major feature of the last 10 years,” he said.

However, in this election, redistribution has robbed Winnipeg South of several neighbourhoods with about 30,000 votes in total. Some areas have been shifted to Winnipeg South Centre and St. Boniface-St. Vital.

The University of Manitoba remains in the riding. Duguid said constituents remember Conservative cuts to post-secondary funding, some which took place when Tory candidate Janice Morley-Lecomte was the provincial MLA for Seine River.

“A Conservative is a Conservative is a Conservative,” he said.

The Free Press tried to interview Morley-Lecomte, but she did not respond to requests for comment. She has lived in the riding for 40 years, as per the Conservative party website, and worked in social services before entering politics.

She was the mental health and community wellness minister for eight months under the former Manitoba Tory government. She represented Seine River for two terms before being defeated by NDP candidate Billie Cross in the 2023 provincial election.

The NDP candidate was involved in the campaign in which Morley-Lecomte lost the Seine River seat.

Joanne Bjornson, 52, works as the sales manager at the convention centre and is the lead union steward for CUPE 500.

She has no campaign manager and describes her campaign as entirely grassroots.

She is equal parts rookie and veteran: she has worked on NDP campaigns for years, including getting Cross elected in Seine River and with her husband, Peter Bjornson, who was a cabinet minister in former premier Greg Selinger’s government.

The NDP has never represented Winnipeg South and, typically, finishes a distant third.

Bjornson said when she’s out door-knocking, she tells voters they have a choice other than the Liberal party.

“I think it’s about making sure people in Winnipeg South have a real choice, a progressive choice that reflects their values and their priorities,” she said. “The default progressive choice doesn’t need to be Liberal.”

What’s the value of a high-profile face in a federal election? Not always that much, said Paul Thomas, professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba.

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“Political scientists have wrestled with this question many, many times with careful empirical surveys, and it’s anywhere from, say, five to 15 per cent of the vote might be cast on the basis of the appeal of the local candidate,” he said.

“So if you’re a long-serving high-profile individual, say, Duguid in Winnipeg South, you might get some incumbent advantage from that… (but) if we’re all infatuated with a new leader, or if there’s a single issue dominating national conversation, then the local candidate effect diminishes significantly.”

The rapidly growing population in Waverley West could benefit the Conservatives, he said.

“It’s a more affluent neighbourhood, there are more people there who are newcomers to Canada, so we’ll have to see if the Conservative candidate can make the connection with those folks and help her cause,” Thomas said.

malak.abas@freepress.mb.ca

Malak Abas
Reporter

Malak Abas is a city reporter at the Free Press. Born and raised in Winnipeg’s North End, she led the campus paper at the University of Manitoba before joining the Free Press in 2020. Read more about Malak.

Every piece of reporting Malak produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.