Manitoba biz community ‘holding their breath’ on Trump tariffs No 25 per cent tax — yet — but industry leaders, province, prepping for the possibility By: Gabrielle Piché Posted: 6:22 PM CST Monday, Jan. 20, 2025 Last Modified: 8:27 AM CST Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025 Updates

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This article was published 20/01/2025 (570 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

UNITED States President Donald Trump suggested he is considering Feb. 1 as the day he plans to slap Canada and Mexico with 25 per cent tariffs after he returned to the White House on Monday evening to sign a stack of unrelated executive orders.

“We are thinking in terms of 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada because they are allowing vast number of people, Canada is a very bad abuser also, vast numbers of people to come in and fentanyl to come in,” he told reporters Monday night.

The comment was made after Trump officials suggested to reporters he would only sign a memorandum telling federal agencies to study trade issues, including alleged unfair trade and currency practices by Canada, Mexico and China.

Trump also said he may consider imposing a universal tariff on all countries.

“We’re not ready for that yet,” Trump said. “Essentially all countries take advantage of the U.S.”

Federal and provincial officials in Washington were relieved that tariffs on Canadian goods were not part of Trump’s inaugural speech and were not on a list of policy priorities released by the White House.

Many said Canada can’t afford to be complacent ahead of what could be a brutal hit to the economy.

“It’s always good news when you’re not mentioned, so I prefer that,” said Liberal MP John McKay, who co-chairs the Canada-U.S. interparliamentary group.

That sentiment was echoed in Manitoba.

“Everybody’s just sort of holding their breath,” said John Morris, co-director of the Mining Association of Manitoba.

Canadian government officials and industry leaders have spent the weeks preceding Trump’s inauguration meeting with American counterparts, stressing the importance of the countries’ trade relationship and debating retaliation measures if the new president follows through on tariff threats.

“Trump works with uncertainty.”–Carlo Dade

Trump first touted a 25 per cent blanket tariff on Canadian imports in November.

He made no direct mention of the Canada-specific hit in his inauguration speech Monday. He did announce the creation of an external revenue service to collect tariffs, duties and revenues.

“It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury coming from foreign sources,” Trump said.

Cam Dahl, Manitoba Pork’s general manager, said now is not the time to get comfortable.

Local pork producers send upwards of $400 million worth of products and $200 million in live pigs to the U.S. annually, Dahl said.

It’s part of the nearly $42 billion worth of goods traded between Manitoba and the U.S. yearly, as per Canadian Chamber of Commerce data.

“This is a trading relationship that is critically important to us,” Dahl stressed.

Manitoba Pork representatives plan to meet with partners in Iowa this week to promote the mutually beneficial bond.

Canada must underscore its trade importance with the U.S., said Loren Remillard, president of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce.

“The prolonged uncertainty as to whether there will or won’t be (tariffs) can be as damaging in many ways,” he added.

Already, 30 per cent of Canadian manufacturers have delayed investments and 22 per cent have frozen hiring, a recent Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters survey found.

Some companies, including Palliser Furniture, are considering increasing their U.S. manufacturing presence.

“Trump works with uncertainty,” said Carlo Dade, the Canada West Foundation’s director of trade and trade infrastructure. “The Americans have weaponized uncertainty as a vehicle to weaken trade with other countries to drive jobs back to the U.S.”

Dade was in Washington Monday, partaking in inauguration events at the Canadian Embassy. Tariffs came up in conversation as a worry point for American automotive, infrastructure and mining industry members, Dade said.

“(But) even if there isn’t tariffs, the prolonged uncertainty as to whether there will or won’t be can be as damaging in many ways.”–Loren Remillard

“This is not something that’s unexpected,” Dade said. “(Government) had … months to prepare, and as far as I can tell … nothing was done.”

He referenced an op-ed the foundation, a think tank, put out in September. The paper predicted a global tariff on exports to the U.S. following Trump’s campaign trail comments.

Manitoba’s NDP government has taken U.S. relations seriously since its October 2023 election, Premier Wab Kinew said.

Details on a Manitoba trade office in Washington, D.C., are expected in the next couple months.

“I think we’ve got a great, great candidate, and somebody who would really represent the best of us,” Kinew said.

The premier recently met with fellow first ministers in Ottawa to discuss the threat of tariffs and visited North Dakota earlier this month to represent Manitoba’s economic interests. Last April, he visited Washington to make inroads with America’s top bureaucrats.

He plans to meet virtually with an American senator Tuesday, he said.

In the meantime, it’s important to increase manufacturing capacity in Manitoba, Kinew said, pointing to government investments in New Flyer and Magellan Aerospace.

It’s a good time to reduce interprovincial trade barriers and diversify export markets, said the Chamber’s Remillard.

The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement is slated for reconsideration in 2026 — it’s likely to be a “very challenging (free trade) review and potential renegotiation,” Remillard said.

For now, a “unified voice from Canada” should be top priority, said Elisabeth Saftiuk, the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce’s vice-president of policy and government relations.

“Businesses … are anxious,” she said. “This is just yet another element of uncertainty and anxiety for businesses with the potential to seriously increase costs.”

It follows instability during the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting inflation, Saftiuk said.

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Tariffs could mean job cuts, scaled-back investments and higher prices in both Canada and the U.S. Trump has also publicized his intentions to crack down on illegal immigrants in America and increase border security.

Westlink Immigration, a Winnipeg firm, has fielded more queries about moving north to the keystone province in recent weeks. It hasn’t been a drastic increase, noted Pragati Sharma, an immigration consultant with the company.

She’s spoken to long-time U.S. residents who are “looking for options” in Manitoba. However, options are limited, depending on the situation — especially with Canada scaling back its immigration numbers, Sharma said.

Ottawa has announced $1.3 billion for new resources into the country’s border security. It follows Trump’s tariff threats.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com

Gabrielle Piché
Reporter

Gabrielle Piché reports on business for the Free Press. She interned at the Free Press and worked for its sister outlet, Canstar Community News, before entering the business beat in 2021. Read more about Gabrielle.

Every piece of reporting Gabrielle produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.