City on cusp of a boom

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This article was published 12/01/2012 (5105 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A revitalized manufacturing sector will help propel Winnipeg to new economic heights over the next two years, according to the latest forecast from the Conference Board of Canada.

In its first Metropolitan Outlook report of the year, the Ottawa-based think-tank predicts the Winnipeg economy will grow by 2.4 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2013. That’s up from an estimated 1.8 per cent GDP (gross domestic product) growth in 2011.

And it predicts the Manitoba economy will do even better, with growth of 2.6 per cent this year and three per cent in 2013 after expanding by an estimated 2.1 per cent in 2011.

“Winnipeg is expected to rank in the top half of Canadian CMAs (census metropolitan areas) for economic growth in 2012,” the board said. “Winnipeg’s manufacturing sector is forecast to post its best performance since 2007, which will help lift overall economic growth….”

The board said although a decline in bus-making helped to limit manufacturing growth to only 0.7 per cent last year, the city’s largest aerospace firms should see an increase in demand for their products and services this year.

“As a result, in spite of a strong Canadian dollar and its downward pressure on exports, manufacturing growth is expected to pick up, with 3.8 per cent and four per cent growth forecast for 2012 and 2013, respectively.”

Greg Dandewich, Economic Development Winnipeg’s senior vice-president, said local manufacturers have also been investing heavily in new equipment and new technologies in recent years. That should also help boost production.

“I think that (GDP growth of 2.4 per cent and 2.9 per cent) is probably a pretty accurate expectation,” Dandewich said.

The board said projected two per cent growth in employment this year also should boost demand for goods and services and breathe new life into the city’s services sector, which saw output decline by two per cent in 2011. It’s probably looking at growth of 2.5 per cent this year, it said.

On the downside, the board said one of the city’s economic drivers in recent years — its booming construction sector — is likely looking at a 2.1 per cent decline in output this year as a number of large projects near completion and cash-strapped governments cut back on infrastructure spending.

But an official with the Winnipeg Construction Association disagreed.

“We’re certainly not seeing that in our indicators and the industry is certainly not talking about that,” WCA executive vice-president Ron Hambley said.

While some big projects are nearing completion, Hambley said others are ongoing and a number are just getting underway.

That includes four big ones at the Health Sciences Centre — a $38.9-million diagnostic imaging centre, a $40-million Canad Inns hotel, a $40-million central energy plant and a new Women’s and Newborn Hospital. That cost of the latter project was originally estimated at $150-million-plus, but Hambley said it’s now expected to come in at about $240 million.

Add to that several new retail developments and a new hydro substation on the outskirts of the city, and “we’re not seeing any slowdown in construction activity at all,” Hambley said.

murray.mcneill@freepress.mb.ca

GDP, jobs, housing starts all to grow

 

Here are the Conference Board of Canada’s latest growth projections for Winnipeg:

201120122013

Real GDP growth1.8%2.4%2.9%

Employment growth-0.3%2.0%2.1%

Unemployment rate5.7 %5.6%5.5%

Personal income per capita1.1%2.0%3.2%

Population 1.4% 1.3 %1.3%

(to 764,000)(to 774,000)(to 784,000)

Housing starts (units)2,9073,1113,534

Retail sales3.4%3.8%3.8%

Inflation rate2.8%1.8%2.3%