Conference Board of Canada sees bounce-back for city’s economy

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This article was published 21/10/2014 (4376 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

WINNIPEG’S economy lost a bit of steam this year, but an anticipated increase in manufacturing and construction activity should provide a nice rebound in 2015, according to the latest economic forecast from the Conference Board of Canada.

In its Autumn 2014 Metropolitan Outlook report released Monday, the Ottawa-based think-tank predicts Winnipeg will finish the year with 2.2 per cent economic growth. That would be down a couple of notches from 2013’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 2.4 per cent.

However, “next year, we expect real gross domestic product to advance by 2.8 per cent,” the board says, “thanks to improvements in many industries, including non-commercial services and public administration.”

Manufacturing output is also expected to continue to grow, it says, noting order books are full for local transit-bus-maker New Flyer Industries and a rising global demand for aircraft will continue to support growth in the aerospace industry.

The board predicts the local construction industry will also see a modest rebound in activity in 2015. Housing starts are expected to climb to 4,300 units from a projected 3,870 units this year, and increased government investment in new infrastructure projects will help boost non-residential construction activity.

The board attributes this year’s weaker economic performance to a combination of factors, including the slowdown in new-home construction activity and reduced output by both the public administration and personal services industries.

With this year’s dip in economic output, the board said Winnipeg is expected to finish 2014 with the eighth-strongest real GDP growth among the 13 Canadian cities examined in the Autumn report. That’s down from a sixth-place ranking in 2013.

However, next year’s anticipated rebound should propel it back up to sixth place for the 2015-to-2018 period, with average growth for those four years of 2.6 per cent.

The board report also includes an updated forecast for the Manitoba economy. It said this year is shaping up as another year of sound economic growth for the province, with real GDP growth expected to come in at 2.0 per cent. That’s down a couple of notches from 2013’s growth of 2.2 per cent.

But the outlook for 2015 is even better, it adds.

“Next year, several construction projects will spur growth in both private and public investment, in addition to the already-hot manufacturing and mining sectors,” it said. “All told, real GDP is expected to increase 3.0 per cent in 2015, tying Manitoba with Alberta for the strongest growth among the provinces.”

 

— Murray McNeill