Tories leading NDP in support

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 19/03/2010 (5657 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

An Angus Reid poll released Thursday — on the eve of the release of the new provincial budget — shows Hugh McFadyen’s Progressive Conservatives out in front of Premier Greg Selinger’s New Democrats.

"This sets up Tuesday’s budget," said the University of Manitoba’s Jared Wesley, an assistant professor of political studies. "This is when Manitobans will have a first real look at the premier."

Wesley said Selinger and Finance Minister Rosann Wowchuk have to make a good impression on Manitobans to take any momentum away from the PCs.

"Anybody who’s in politics has to take it seriously because it’s coming from Angus Reid," Wesley said of the poll.

It found 44 per cent of decided Manitoba voters say they would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency if a provincial election were held tomorrow. The governing NDP is second with 37 per cent followed by the Liberal Party with 13 per cent and the Green Party with three per cent.

(The full poll is at www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010.03.18_Politics_MB.pdf)

The NDP is ahead of the Tories in Winnipeg (44 per cent to 36 per cent), but the opposition party holds the upper hand in rural Manitoba (55 per cent to 28 per cent).

A spokeswoman for the Progressive Conservative party said the poll’s results are just a snapshot in time.

"Of course after 11 years of NDP government, it’s nice to see our support moving in the right direction," said Liz Peters, director of media relations for the PCs.

A spokesman for the NDP government declined to comment on the poll.

Wesley said the poll’s result put some wind in the sails of the PCs, in fundraising for instance, but it’s not an indication they’ll form the next government.

All it shows is they’ve seen increased support from their traditional areas — not in Winnipeg.

"They need more support in the city if they’re going to grab seats to form the next government," Wesley said.

There are 57 seats in the Manitoba legislature: The NDP have 36 seats, the PCs 19 and the Liberals two.

What threw some observers for a loop is the poll’s finding the Progressive Conservatives hold a seven-point advantage among women (43 per cent to 36 cent) over the NDP.

Previous polling has never found this.

The poll says the Tories also hold a six-point lead over the NDP among males (45 per cent to 39 cent), something that is more in keeping with previous polls.

The poll also says Liberals do better among women (17 per cent) than men (eight per cent).

Meanwhile, Winnipeg’s Probe Research is currently in the field conducting its own survey of voting intentions.

In Probe’s last poll of political party support, conducted Nov. 25-Dec. 5 last year, the NDP’s support among voters was high despite the leaving of former Premier Gary Doer.

According to that poll, 47 per cent of Manitobans would support an NDP candidate if an election were held, compared with 37 per cent for the Tories and 11 per cent for the Liberals.

It also found NDP support was highest among Manitobans 18-34 years old with 53 per cent support versus 29 per cent for the Conservatives and 12 per cent for the Liberals.

bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca

 

All about the numbers

Tories 44

NDP 37

Liberals 13

Green Party 3

The online poll was taken Feb. 16 to 23 among 800 randomly selected Manitoba adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error — which measures sampling variability — is +/- 3.5 per cent.