Final predictions as big game nears

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This article was published 27/11/2011 (5186 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

VANCOUVER — There are a myriad of statistics surrounding this evening’s 99th Grey Cup game — and most of them point to a win by the much better-rounded B.C. Lions over the defence-heavy, offence-light Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

But the history of this season tells me that only one set of statistics really matter, if you’re a Bombers booster, and those are as follows:

When the Bombers win the turnover battle, they are 10-0 this season. Period. Discussion over.

<a href=”http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=5259459a54″ >Grey Cup 2011, Nov. 27</a>

And so if you frame the discussion in those terms, the task before the Bombers at BC Place on Sunday goes from overwhelming to something much, much simpler.

Winnipeg doesn’t need to neutralize Travis Lulay, the most outstanding player in the CFL this season. They don’t need to hold running back Andrew Harris to short carries. They don’t need to take what will be a boisterous B.C. crowd out of the game, contain the B.C. pass rush, or shut down a very impressive receiving corps.

No, what the Bombers need to do on Sunday is simply turn the ball over less than B.C. does. And then they will win.

Now, if you don’t believe the task is that simple, then you believe this — that for the first time all season long, the Bombers will lose on Sunday even if they commit less turnovers than the Lions.

So let’s look at that — is there any compelling reason to think that Sunday’s Grey Cup would be the exception to the infallible turnover rule for Winnipeg this year?

I don’t see any. For starters, the other end of that turnover statistic has also been true for Winnipeg this season. When the Bombers have lost the turnover battle this year, they are 0-7. Period. End of discussion.

Indeed, the only wiggle room in this turnover discussion comes when the Bombers have tied their opponents in turnovers this season. It’s happened only twice in 19 games and the Bombers are 1-1 when it does happen, the victory in that scenario coming just last week in a win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the East Final.

Now, no one is suggesting that the Bombers are going to be able to win the turnover battle if they don’t shut down Lulay and don’t neutralize the Lions receivers, don’t deal with the pass rush or corral Harris or take the crowd of the game.

But all those elements are either the cause or effect of winning the turnover battle, with a particular empasis on shutting down Lulay and that receiving corps.

Indeed, the single most likely way the Bombers will generate a turnover today is by intercepting Lulay. Of the 54 takeaways the Bombers have generated this season, 25 have come from interceptions, 18 from recovered fumbles and 11 by turnovers on downs — most of those near the end of a game when the score was out of reach.

As a much, much younger man, I sat in the end zone at Landsdowne Park on the last Sunday in November, 1988, watching another vaunted B.C. Lions offence go up against another fierce Bombers defence. The margin at the end of that day could not possibly have been thinner — a Michael Gray interception of Matt Dunigan on the four-yard line in the dying minutes of the fourth quarter — proved to be the difference in a 22-21 Bombers victory.

A turnover, in other words, proved to be the difference in that incredibly close game. Just as it will be the difference today, I think, in a game that will be every bit as close and ultimately the same final score:

WINNIPEG 22 B.C. 21.